Showing posts with label super bowl pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label super bowl pick. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 9, 2022

NFL 2021 Super Bowl LVI Pick

 Hello readers! The last game of the season will soon be upon us next Sunday as the Super Bowl will happen in Los Angeles. Super Bowl LVI will feature the AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals and the NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams. In this post I'll talk about, a season recap for both teams, historical series between the two teams where I pick a game between the two teams, the keys for both teams and my pick to who wins it all. Let's get to work!

Season Recap

Los Angeles Rams

On January 31st, 2021, the Los Angeles Rams made their trade to a possible Super Bowl berth. The trade would involve dealing with fifth-year starter Jared Goff to the Lions in return of veteran Matthew Stafford. It would be a fresh start for Stafford after spending the last 12 years in Detroit where the quarterback would go to the playoffs only twice and lose both times. 

The 2021 Rams were fairly picked by many a playoff contender in a NFC West that was filled with others that looked to be in Super Bowl contender spot. The Cardinals, 49ers and Seahawks all had a shot to get to a playoff spot. It would be the Rams that would get out of the mess as division champions. 

With their all-star team and their quarterback at hand, the Rams would win their first three of four games. The Arizona Cardinals would snap the hot start beating the Rams 37-20. Sean McVay's Rams would rebound from the defeat and would win their next four games by averaging 32 points a game. They would hit a 7-1 record through eight games. 

In what would've been a possible Super Bowl matchup the Titans would beat the Rams without Derrick Henry 28-16. Their toughest loss would be against the rival 49ers on the road in a 31-10 thrashing. With a bye week and a 7-3 record, the Rams were struggling and a turnaround was needed. The Rams would make trades that would bring in Odell Beckham Jr from the Browns and Von Miller from the Broncos. With two stars on offense and defense the Rams looked to get back on track. 

The hope of a rebound would be torpedoed after a back and forth affair against the Green Bay Packers by a 36-28 loss. With a 7-4 record staring at them and the Cardinals and 49ers looking at their struggles as an advantage. The Rams would unleash their offense on an inept Jaguars team that would give them momentum. The win would catapult them to win their next four games including a revenge win against the Cardinals. With a 12-4 record and a possible division championship at stake, a win over the rival 49ers would put them with a 13-4 record. They would ultimately lose to them in an 27-24 overtime loss. They would end up as division champions but they looked vulnerable. 

The Rams would open the playoffs against a familiar foe, the Arizona Cardinals. In a win or die situation the Rams would rout the Cardinals and beat them 34-11 and gave Matthew Stafford his first playoff win in his career. The next opponent would be a tough one. Against the defending champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Rams would put up a 27-3 margin before Tom Brady would lead his team back to a 27-27 tied game. Instead of going into overtime, Matthew Stafford would find his favorite target Cooper Kupp on consecutive throws and would lead them to field goal range that would end the Buccaneers hope of a comeback win. 

In the NFC championship, they would have to face their rivals yet again, the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers had won six straight games, dating back to the 2019 season. In a defensive contest the Rams would exact a measure of revenge over the 49ers by a 20-17 to get to their 5th Super Bowl appearance. 

Cincinnati Bengals

The story of a Super Bowl berth starts with a beginning. On December 22nd, 2019, the Cincinnati Bengals would lose to the Miami Dolphins and clinched the rights to the #1 pick in the 2020 NFL draft. They would use the pick on LSU product Joe Burrow. The 2020 Bengals would go as far as Joe Burrow would take them. A loss to the Washington Football Team would sting worse as Joe Burrow was lost for the season due to injury. The Bengals would finish the season at the cellar of the AFC North with a 4-11-1 record. 

Changes were needed for the 2021 Bengals as they revamped their defense with such free agent signings like Eli Apple from the Panthers or Larry Ogunjobi from the rival Browns. The Bengals also added to their roster via the draft . They used their #5 overall pick on wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase who played with Burrow at LSU. In an odd move, the Bengals drafted a kicker in the fifth round by the name of Evan McPherson. With an improved team on hand, the Bengals looked to get back to relevance. 

The expectations of the 2021 Bengals were modest. If they could keep Joe Burrow healthy and upright they had a shot to do some work. The Steelers, Browns and Ravens were expected to do well in the AFC North. All three teams were playoff teams the previous year so it was expected of them. 

At the start of the season the Bengals looked like more of an average team then a contender as they would beat the Vikings by a field goal in overtime 27-24 by an Evan McPherson. Kind of ironic that he would be key to wins later in the season. The Bengals would lose their first game in a 20-17 contest against the Chicago Bears. 

Everything would change for the Bengals as they shocked the football world and beat their bully the Pittsburgh Steelers by a 24-10 thrashing on the road. They would win again against the Jaguars before losing by an overtime field goal against the Packers. They would go on two win the next two games by scoring 34 points against the Lions and 41 against the Ravens. 

The Bengals would struggle to beat the Jets on the road and the Browns at home and would go into the bye with a 5-4 record. Cincinnati's offense would rebound and beat the Raiders 32-13 and sweep the Steelers 41-10 at home. The Bengals would once again go on a 2-game losing streak as the Chargers and 49ers would beat them and send them back to a 7-6 record. 

In a defensive contest in Denver, the Bengals would stave off a loss by beating the Broncos 15-10. Against the Ravens, the Bengals would add another season sweep as the Bengals beat the Ravens 41-21. They would also beat the defending AFC champion Chiefs in a shootout 34-31. With the starters resting, the Browns would hand the Bengals their 7th loss of the season with a 21-16 defeat. Despite finishing the season with a 10-7 record, the Bengals would survive the rough AFC North as division champions for the first time since 2015. 

The playoff prospects for the Bengals weren't rosy. Not winning a playoff game since 1990 didn't help the Bengals cause either. Nevertheless, the Bengals would hang on and beat the Raiders 26-19 to give them their first playoff win since Sam Wyche's Bengals beat the Oilers. Their journey had begun. 

Against the top-seeded Tennessee Titans, the Bengals would hang with the Titans and capitalized on Titans mistakes. The Titans however would get nine sacks on Joe Burrow. The tight contest would come down to an Evan McPherson field goal that would send the Bengals to their first AFC Championship since 1988. 

In a hostile environment of Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs, the Bengals would find themselves with the better sack total than their competition. With a 21-10 deficit at halftime, Joe Burrow would guide his Bengals on a 14-3 run to get the game to overtime. Cincinnati would make life inhospitable for Patrick Mahomes as he would be pressured more in the first half while playing more zone defense. The deciding score would come down to a Evan McPherson field goal that would send the Bengals to their 3rd Super Bowl appearance. 

Bengals-Rams Series History

In the history of the Bengals-Rams series, the Bengals hold a 8-6 record over the Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams. The Rams would win the first contest in 1972 by a 15-12 margin. The Bengals would win the next five of the six games in the series. The Rams would win the next three games, including a 38-10 win as the Greatest Show On Turf in 1999. Cincinnati would win the next three of the four games. The most recent game in the series was a Rams 24-10 win in 2019. 

One of the more entertaining games in the series was a Bengals win in overtime by a 34-31 margin in 1990. The Bengals were two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance while the Rams were a year removed from an appearance in the NFC championship. 

Boomer Esiason and Jim Everett would combine for 862 passing yards and five touchdowns in one of the biggest offensive showdowns of the 1990 season. The halftime score would be a 21-7 lead in favor of the Bengals as the Rams would storm back and put up 14 points in the 3rd quarter. The game would come down to a Mike Lansford field goal that would put the Rams at a 31-31 tie going into overtime. It would end up being a waste as Bengals kicker Jim Breech would hit a 44-yard field goal that would give the Bengals their 4th win of the season. Here's a video of the offensive contest. 

At the end of the 1990 season, the Rams would finish the year with a 5-11 record and failed to make it back to the playoffs. The Bengals would be on the opposite side of the spectrum and finish the 1990 season with a 9-7 record and would beat the Oilers in the playoffs but would lose to the Raiders in what would be the Curse of Bo Jackson as the Bengals would lose eight straight playoff games until the 2021 season.

Super Bowl Notes & Tidbits

Super Bowl LVI will take place in Inglewood, California. It'll be the 13th Super Bowl played in the state of California, eight of them have been played in the Greater Los Angeles area. The last five Super Bowls in Los Angeles had been played at the Rose Bowl while the first two were in the LA Coliseum. 

Televising Super Bowl LVI will be NBC. It'll be the 19th Super Bowl that NBC has televised (they televised Super Bowl I (with CBS), III, V, VII, IX, XI, XIII, XV, XVII, XX, XXIII, XXVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXX, XLIII, XLVI, XLIX, and LII). Al Michaels will be doing the play-by-play for the Super Bowl for NBC. It'll be his 11th Super Bowl (he called Super Bowl XXII, XXV, XXIX, XXXIV, XXXVII, XL, XLIII, XLVI, XLIX, and LII). Doing color commentary for NBC will be Cris Collinsworth. It'll be his 5th Super Bowl call (he did Super Bowl XXXIX, XLVI, XLIX and LII). 

The halftime festivities will feature a halftime show done by Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, and Kendrick Lamar. It'll be Mary J. Blige's 2nd Super Bowl appearance (she appeared in Super Bowl XXXV. It will be the 1st appearance for the rest of them. 

For advertising, the cost of a 30-second commercial for the Super Bowl will be an estimated $7 million. Last year, the cost was $5.5 million. Some of the big companies that will have a commercial for the big game will be Budweiser, Coca-Cola, Hyundai and Pepsi. 

The referee for Super Bowl LVI will be Ronald Torbert. He will be refereeing his first Super Bowl. He was an alternate referee for Super Bowl LIII. The rest of his crew will be Umpire Bryan Neale, Down Judge Derick Bowers, Line judge Carl Johnson, Field Judge Rick Patterson, Side Judge Keith Washington, Back Judge Scott Helverson, the replay official will be Roddy Ames and Replay assisstant will be Sean McKee. 

Keys to the Game

Looking at both teams, they seem to be fairly even on paper with one having a better player in one position and another in an other. On offense the two teams have two great passing attacks with wide receivers that can go deep. Their rush offense I would somewhat give an advantage to the Bengals a bit as they have Joe Mixon that can go down the middle and go outside. On defense I might give the nod to the Rams as they really have a defensive line that can really rush the passer with three with Aaron Donald and Von Miller attacking the offensive line. Here are my keys to a win for either team. 

Los Angeles Rams

Protect the ball: The ability to keep the ball out of your opponent's hands will be key to this one. Matthew Stafford may be a veteran but he is vulnerable to throwing interceptions. In the game against the Buccaneers in the Divisional round, they lost four fumbles which might've been the reason why the Bucs almost came back and won. It'll be key to not give any opportunities to the Bengals. 

Mix it up on defense: the Bengals offensive line is a glaring weakness. They gave up nine sacks to the Titans. While they did improve on the offensive line against the Chiefs, they could possibly have a tough time controlling the line of scrimmage against the likes of Aaron Donald and Von Miller. While I wouldn't put a lot of blitzes on Burrow I feel some zone defense would be necessary to win. 

Embrace the pressure: The Rams will be playing in their home stadium, this time with a crowd as the Buccaneers had very little in terms of attendance because of COVID-protocols. The all-in approach for the Rams will also put pressure on them as the Rams are the favorite by 4.5 to win the game. If they don't win the game then their season will be a failure so embrace the pressure and play like the team they are capable of. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Be fearless: Let's be honest, the Bengals have some chance to win this game but not a very good chance. In truth, most people weren't expecting them to be even at this spot. They are the underdog, the unexpected visitor to the Rams home stadium, the world expects them to lose. Zac Taylor needs to take some chances if they're in a 4th and short situation, a trick play or two, or even an onside kick. Take some chances. 

Offensive line needs a big day: The Bengals offensive line has become a punching line in the NFL for the last month and quite frankly, its warranted. They gave up nine sacks in the game against the Titans. They played a better game against the Chiefs but with the likes of Aaron Donald and Von Miller lurking in the defense, they will need to play a stellar game in the run and pass protection game. Everything hinges on keeping Joe Burrow upright and healthy. 

Keep an eye on Cooper Kupp... and everyone else: Let's be fair, Cooper Kupp doesn't get a lot of attention he cares more often about winning than being in the spotlight. With that being said the Bengals pass defense will have to communicate and be on top of Cooper Kupp and everyone else. The Bengals pass defense was 27th in the NFL, giving up 264.6 yards/game. Fortunately the Rams running game doesn't have a very good unit so they will have to focus their attention on pass defense. 

My Super Bowl Pick

LA Rams (15-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (13-7) (NBC; 6:30 pm):
The 2021 season has now come down to these two teams. You have the Rams that are in their own home stadium trying to win their first championship since they were the St. Louis Rams in 1999, or their first championship as the Los Angeles Rams since 1951. You have the Bengals trying to win their first championship in franchise history. The game itself could be a good one with two fun offenses that feature two quarterbacks that are trying to go for their first ring. You also have two defenses that can rush the passer and have playmakers. I personally don't have any hatred or love for either team as the Rams are a fun team to watch. While they really tried to buy their team to win a championship, they look like a really tough out for the Bengals. I have no hatred for the Bengals either as Joe Burrow was a local Fargo kid for a couple of years as his dad was a defensive coordinator for the North Dakota State University Bison for the 2002 and 2003 seasons. As much as I would root for the underdog in the situation I don't really see how the Rams can possibly lose this game with the talent on the sides of the line of scrimmage. Sorry Bengals fans but I'm going with the Rams. I also have a bet going with Cardinal Viking and he picked the Bengals so if they win I have to pay up. 

TW: Rams; CV: Bengals

Super Bowl Record

I had been doing picks for the Super Bowl roughly since Super Bowl XXXII when the Packers and the Broncos played (yeah I have a good memory fairly). Safe to say there was a long stretch when I had lost three straight Super Bowls and then five straight Super Bowls. 

Super Bowl XXXII: Packers vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl XXXIII: Broncos vs Falcons (won)
Super Bowl XXXIV: Rams vs Titans (won)
Super Bowl XXXV: Ravens vs Giants (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVI: Rams vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVII: Raiders vs Buccaneers (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Panthers vs Patriots (won)
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots vs Eagles (won)
Super Bowl XL: Steelers vs Seahawks (lost)
Super Bowl XLI: Colts vs Bears (won)
Super Bowl XLII: Giants vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers vs Cardinals (lost)
Super Bowl XLIV: Saints vs Colts (won)
Super Bowl XLV: Steelers vs Packers (won)
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens vs 49ers (lost)
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks vs Broncos (lost)

Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots vs Seahawks (lost)
Super Bowl 50: Panthers vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl LI: Patriots vs Falcons (won)
Super Bowl LII: Eagles vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl LIII: Rams vs Patriots (won)
Super Bowl LIV: 49ers vs Chiefs (lost)
Super Bowl LV: Buccaneers vs Chiefs (won)

All-time record: 10-13

2021 Pick'em Records:

My record:

Week 1: 7-9
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 12-4
Week 6: 11-3
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 7-8
Week 9: 7-7
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 8-7
Week 12: 8-7
Week 13: 10-4
Week 14: 10-4
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 13-3
Week 18: 11-5

Total: 173-98-1

Super Wild Card Weekend: 6-0
Divisional Playoff: 0-4
Conference Championship: 1-1

Cardinal Viking's record:

Week 1: 6-10
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 13-3
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 10-6
Week 6: 12-2
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 7-8
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 10-5
Week 12: 9-6
Week 13: 7-7
Week 14: 9-5
Week 15: 10-6
Week 16: 11-5
Week 17: 10-6
Week 18: 8-8

Total: 167-104-1

Super Wild Card Weekend: 6-0
Divisional Playoff: 2-2
Conference Championship: 1-1

Previous Picking Records:

Cardinal Viking:

2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 151-104-1
2020: 163-92-1

My record: 
2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

I'll do a Super Bowl Recap and I'll take a look back at my preseason picks the Monday after the Super Bowl or a few days after. Enjoy the big game! 
-Tom

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

NFL 2019 Super Bowl LIV Pick Post!

Hello readers! The big game is less than a week away. I feel there has been enough time for me to make my thoughts clear and put into words. Along with my Super Bowl post I will do an NFL 100 spotlight based on the 49ers-Chiefs matchup that happened in 1994. Let's get to work!

NFL 100: A Spotlight

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet for the 14th time in their history. Their matchups have been relatively high scoring. At one point the Chiefs would hang 44 points on the 49ers in a 44-9 game in 1997 while the 49ers put up 31 points in a 31-3 game in 1985. None of the previous 13 meetings will match up to the 1994 game that was a revenge game beyond all revenge games.

In 1993, the 49ers traded Joe Montana to the Chiefs. Montana had led the 49ers to 4 Super Bowl wins while compiling great stats for the 49ers. I certainly believed that Joe Montana looked forward to the Week 2 match up in the 1994 season against his old team.

Steve Young was brought to San Francisco in 1987. The quarterback would be in Montana's shadow during the 49ers Super Bowl wins in 1988 and 1989. Montana would suffer a season ending injury in 1991, Steve Young would take the reins from Montana. He would have his chance at last. He wouldn't lead the 49ers to a Super Bowl win however.

By 1992, Young had competition. Steve Bono was on the roster and Montana's season ending injury in 1991 was close to recovery. Young would play the most of the season except for the last game where Montana led the 49ers to victory against the Detroit Lions. It would be Montana's last game as a 49er.

In 1993, the rift between Montana and Young grew as teammates began to take sides. Some for Montana, some for Young. Young didn't want to return as a backup and many felt that Montana was the face of the franchise. Ultimately, Joe Montana made the ultimate sacrifice, he requested a trade.

The Week 2 match up in the 1994 season was unlike any other in NFL history. There had been revenge games before. One example that comes to mind was Super Bowl XII where the Dallas Cowboys had traded starter Craig Morton to the Giants, and then Morton was the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in that game. Ultimately, Morton's successor, Roger Staubach, and his old team would hand him a rousing defeat. Nothing really like two future hall of fame quarterbacks who played for the same team, duking it out on opposing sides.

In the end, the Chiefs would win the game by the score of 24-17. Steve Young was roughed up by the Chiefs defense, as he was sacked four times in the game. The 49ers would recover from the loss and would finish the season with a 13-3 record. They would beat the Bears in the Divisional playoff and exacted some revenge on the Dallas Cowboys, who had beaten the 49ers in the 1992 and 1993 NFC Championship Games. Young and the 49ers humbled the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX. Steve Young had finally gotten the shadow of Joe Montana off his back as he led the 49ers to a championship.

The 1994 Chiefs was somewhat of a direct contrast. After winning their first three games, the Chiefs would finish the season with a 9-7 record. The Chiefs would make the playoffs and put up a decent effort against the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card game. Montana threw for 314 yards with two touchdowns but ultimately lost the game 27-17 in what would be Joe Montana's last game.

In general, the Week 2 match up between the two teams didn't mean much in the end. Both quarterbacks had reached their respective conference championship games in 1993. Young was humbled against the Dallas Cowboys on the road and Montana would get crushed against the Buffalo Bills in the Bills 4th straight trip to the Super Bowl.


Super Bowl LIV!

So I'll be doing this sort of like what I did last year. I'll do topics on keys to victory, the tv broadcaster, how the two teams got here, the all-time series, and finally my pick to who will win. Let's get started.

TV Broadcaster:

Super Bowl LIV will be played on February 2nd, 2020. The United States TV broadcaster for the game will be FOX. This will be FOX's 9th Super Bowl telecast since becoming the NFC package holder prior to the 1994 season. Calling the game will be Joe Buck and Troy Aikman. The duo will be calling their sixth Super Bowl together. Their first Super Bowl assignment was back in Super Bowl XXXIX. Joe Buck is the son of the late broadcaster Jack Buck. Coincidentally, Jack Buck was the play-by-play broadcaster for Super Bowl IV for CBS. Super Bowl IV, prior to this season, was the Chiefs last Super Bowl appearance. We shall have to see if they can win it. 

The All-Time Series

The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs will meet for the 14th time in the series. The 49ers hold the edge in the series with a 7-6 mark. The first match up between the two teams was back in 1971 where the Chiefs would beat the 49ers 26-17. Prior to the aforementioned 1994 match up, the 49ers had won four straight against the Chiefs. Most recently, the Chiefs beat the 49ers 38-27 during the 2018 season. 

How Did They Get Here?: San Francisco 49ers

Not much was to be expected from the 2019 49ers. They had lost four games in 2018 and they were playing in a tough division with the Rams and Seahawks vying for dominance. They were led on offense by Jimmy Garoppolo who had missed 2018 with an injury. Garoppolo threw well in 2019, with 3,978 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. On defense they were led by veteran Richard Sherman who had signed with the 49ers in 2018 to provide a boost to the secondary. What made the 49ers stand out was their running game. The team relied on three running backs to get them yardage. Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida ran for 500+ yards in 2019 with Coleman getting 544 yards, Mostert getting 772, and Breida getting 623. The trio would combine for 15 rushing touchdowns. They were the comeback story in the NFL with a 13-3 record and crushed the Vikings and Packers to get to their 7th Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. 

How Did They Get Here?: Kansas City Chiefs

Expectations for the 2019 Chiefs were relatively high as this team last season was one offsides penalty away from possibly going to a Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes entered his 2nd full season as the Chiefs starter, quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league in his 3rd season. The young quarterback would miss a few games due to injury but backup Matt Moore filled in nicely as Moore started for the Chiefs in the Packers and Vikings games during the regular season. The defense was anchored by Frank Clark on the defensive line while veteran Tyrann Mathieu patrols the secondary. On offense the Chiefs have a deep receiving corp with Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs would finish the season with a 12-4 record. In the playoffs they beat the Texans and Titans to get to their 3rd Super Bowl in franchise history.

Keys To The Game

The game is intriguing in terms of the possibilities of the passing game. I feel the game will be more of a offensive game than a defensive one in last year's Super Bowl. I can't see it being a combined 100+ game but i feel the scoring will definitely be in the 20-30's. Here's the keys to victory for both teams:

Chiefs:

Get the running game going: I feel the 49ers will attempt to contain Patrick Mahomes from really hurting them. 
Slow down the 49ers running game: San Francisco's bread and butter on offense is their running backs. Expect a long game for the Chiefs defense if they can't slow down the 49ers rush.
Don't stick to the conservative game: Let's be honest, Andy Reid is renowned for his conservative playcalling, especially when the Chiefs have a lead. Just play smart.

49ers:

Jimmy Garoppolo: He has benefited from a stellar running game and I feel the Chiefs defense will try to cause the 49ers to be one-dimensional. If he doesn't get into a rhythm, I can expect the 49ers will have a rough time on offense. 
Contain Patrick Mahomes: The Titans learned the hard way in not containing Patrick Mahomes. Fortunately, the 49ers do have a rush that can get to the quarterback. 
Get the wide receivers going: There's no question that the 49ers rushing attack is great but their wide receivers aren't as deep as the Chiefs. Perhaps they need to get going to prove they belong. 

The Pick

Super Bowl LIV will be the 23rd Super Bowl that I've watched since Super Bowl XXXII. My record in the game hasn't been that stellar but its hard to predict it after all. Before I release my pick for the game, here is my record so far:

Super Bowl XXXII: Packers vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl XXXIII: Broncos vs Falcons (won)
Super Bowl XXXIV: Rams vs Titans (won)
Super Bowl XXXV: Ravens vs Giants (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVI: Rams vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVII: Raiders vs Buccaneers (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Panthers vs Patriots (won)
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots vs Eagles (won)
Super Bowl XL: Steelers vs Seahawks (lost)
Super Bowl XLI: Colts vs Bears (won)
Super Bowl XLII: Giants vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers vs Cardinals (lost)
Super Bowl XLIV: Saints vs Colts (won)
Super Bowl XLV: Steelers vs Packers (won)
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens vs 49ers (lost)
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks vs Broncos (lost)

Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots vs Seahawks (lost)
Super Bowl 50: Panthers vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl LI: Patriots vs Falcons (won)
Super Bowl LII: Eagles vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl LIII: Rams vs Patriots (won)

All-time record: 9-12

My pick for the team that will win Super Bowl LIV is:

The San Francisco 49ers.


While I feel the Chiefs are the sexy pick in the game due to Patrick Mahomes. I think the 49ers defensive front will prove to be too much for the quarterback. On offense I think the 49ers running game will be the big thing to watch. It will be interesting how well Jimmy Garoppolo will handle starting in the Super Bowl. I like seeing championship droughts come to an end but I just think the 49ers have been the better team all year. If they win they will join the Steelers and Patriots with 6 Super Bowl wins. I'd be alright with the Chiefs winning too but only one can become the champion and I'll take the 49ers.

As far as Super Bowl recap posts, I'll think about doing one on Tuesday/Wednesday next week. I've never done one before but I feel one more post will put a nice bow on the season. See you guys next week and enjoy the game!
-Tom

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Super Bowl LII: Picks + Predictions + Results

Hello readers! It has been a bit since the last time I last posted a column in terms of NFL coverage. Hell it was last year since I did anything with this blog. The 52nd edition of the biggest sports event in North America is just a day away (writing this on Saturday). The blog will cover the regular season results between me and Cardinal Viking (my roommate), our playoff picks (not discussed in blog posts but will do it anyway), as well as the Big Game tomorrow.

The 2017 NFL regular season was the first season since 2014 for me doing NFL picks. It was a rather fun experience to pick teams and hope for the result to go in my favor. It was more of an interesting season with picking against my roommate Cardinal Viking. Here is the week 17 results:

My Record:
8-8

Cardinal Viking's Record:
9-7

The last week of the regular season is particularly tough to predict. Some teams bench their starters for the whole game or last through a half. One prime example of that is the Cowboys/Eagles game. I picked the Eagles but the Cowboys only won by 6 points via shutout. Here is the final regular season totals:


Record:

Week 1: 10-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 11-5
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 7-7
Week 7: 8-7
Week 8: 12-1
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 9-5
Week 11: 8-6
Week 12: 14-2
Week 13: 12-4
Week 14: 8-8
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 8-8
Overall: 164-92

Cardinal Viking, my roommates record:

Week 1: 7-8
Week 2: 13-3
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 11-5
Week 5: 4-10
Week 6: 7-7
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 11-2
Week 9: 7-6
Week 10: 9-5
Week 11: 12-2
Week 12: 13-3
Week 13: 10-6
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 14-2
Week 17: 9-7
Overall: 167-89

So pretty much by default the winner of the regular season pick'em's is: CARDINAL VIKING! Sure I'm somewhat disappointed by the result towards the latter half of the season. I banked on the predictability of certain teams like the Panthers, Packers, and the Falcons quite a bit. I am more than happy to award victory to my roommate. I just have to get used to the bragging rights though :-(

When I first made the Week 1 column back in September, I made a prediction on how each division will be won based on the division winner and the wild card teams, including the preseason Super Bowl matchup. Let's take a look at that as well:

NFC:

North: Packers
South: Panthers
East: Eagles
West: Cardinals
WC: Seahawks & Giants

AFC:

North: Steelers
South: Texans
East: Patriots
West: Raiders
WC: Titans & Broncos

Super Bowl LII: (biased) Packers vs Raiders... Packers win.
(unbiased and probably right) Cardinals vs Patriots... Cards win.

So out of the 8 division winners that I picked, only 3 of them would win their respected divisions. The Panthers got a wild card spot but they didn't win their division so I couldn't count them. Out of the 12 teams that I picked to get to the playoffs only 5 made it. I only got the Patriots prediction right. Bummer. 

The pick'ems continued into the playoffs starting with the Wild card matchups. Now I never did do post the playoff predictions of seasons past but heck why not. Cardinal Viking suggested it and I humbly agreed to it. Here are the results:

My record:
2-2 (Got Saints and Jags right while the Chiefs blow and the Rams well they choked too.)

Cardinal Viking's record:
1-3 (Got Jags correctly and lost the other wild card matchups)

Probably one of my favorite playoff weekends is the Divisional weekend. The 1 and 2 seeds up against the field. A sort of David vs Goliath deal. Here are the results for that:

My record:
3-1 (only messed up on the Saints/Vikings matchup, you had one job Saints!!!)

Cardinal Viking's record:
3-1 (picked the Falcons against the Eagles, losing in Atlanta-like style).

With the NFL's Final Four in place the 3/4 remaining teams had never won a Super Bowl. A decent chance but the Patriots would come back to beat the Jaguars and the Eagles would steamroll the hapless Vikings. Here are the results:

My record:
2-0 (Patriots and Eagles won, easy peasy).

Cardinal Viking's record:
2-0 (same result).

And with that ladies and gentlemen we are now at the Super Bowl part of the column. Strange how that all works out. I just sometimes amaze even myself. 

The 52nd version of the big game will be televised on NBC this year. NBC has shown 19 Super Bowls (including this year's): I (with CBS), III, V, VII, IX, XI, XIII, XV, XVII, XX, XXIII, XXVII, XXVIII, XXX, XXXII, XLIII, XLVI, XLIX.  The play-by-play announcer will be Al Michaels (who will be calling his 10th Super Bowl) who called XXII, XXV, XXIX, XXXIV, XXVII, XL, XLIII, XLVI, XLIX. The color commentator will be Cris Collinsworth who has played in two Super Bowls: XVI and XXIII and has called 3 Super Bowls: XXXIX, XLVI, and XLIX.

The game will be played at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The is the 2nd time that the big game has come to the State of 10,000 lakes. The first time was in Super Bowl XXVI when the Washington Redskins played against the Buffalo Bills. 

Here are some interesting stuff to keep in mind for the big game:

Referee: Gene Steratore (1st Super Bowl)

Line:
New England by -4.5 (as of 3:23 pm on 2/3/18)
O/U 48.5

Cost of 30-Second TV commercial:
$7.7 Million dollars

National Anthem: Pink
Halftime Show: Justin Timberlake (3rd Super Bowl appearance) who has appeared in Super Bowl's XXXV (as a member of *NSYNC), and XXXVIII (with Janet Jackson, yeah...).

Super Bowl Lead-Out Program: NBC's This Is Us.

The Super Bowl history between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New England Patriots is sort of like a "Tale of Two Cities." One team has seen much Super Bowl success, while the other can't seem to figure itself out. New England has appeared in 9 Super Bowls prior to this years. Their record is 5-4. Philadelphia has made it to 2. Their record is 0-2. Let's take a look at the Super Bowl history for the two teams.

The New England Patriots first trip to the big game was in Super Bowl XX, where they lost to the Chicago Bears 46-10. The next trip came in Super Bowl XXXI where they took on the Green Bay Packers, they lost 35-21. The next three trips to the Super Bowl would result in victories for Brady & Company with wins in Super Bowl XXXVI, XXXVIII, and XXXIX. The Patriots were then undefeated heading into XLII against the Giants. New York would pull off one of the hugest upsets in Super Bowl history by handing the Patriots their first loss of the season, finishing off their season at 18-1. The same two teams would face off in another matchup in Super Bowl XLVI with the Giants winning yet again. The Patriots would face huge point deficits in Super Bowl's XLIX and LI (10 and 25 points respectively) and would overcome them to defeat the Seahawks and the Falcons. The Patriots have won five super bowls and seek to win a record-tying sixth Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers have won six Super Bowl's. 

A much less happier story with the Philadelphia Eagles. The first trip to the big game for the Eagles came in Super Bowl XV when they took on the Oakland Raiders. The score was 27-10 in favor of the Raiders. The Eagles would not see another Super Bowl appearance for another 24 years until Super Bowl XXXIX. The matchup was against the New England Patriots (who woulda thunk it). The game was close but the Patriots would come out on top 24-21. The Eagles are seeking their first Super Bowl win, their first league championship since 1960. 

The two teams have had stellar regular seasons posting an overall record of 13-3 in the regular season. There have been highs and lows for both teams. Let's take a look back at each team and how they got here. 

The New England Patriots started off the regular season with a loss on opening night against the Kansas City Chiefs, but would rebound to win their next two games against the Saints and the Texans. The 2nd loss of the season came against the Carolina Panthers who would upset them at home. After the loss the Patriots would rebound going on a 8-game winning streak before losing their 3rd game against the Miami Dolphins. The Pats would finish off the regular season winning their last 5 games to a 13-3 record. In the division round, the Patriots would face off against the Tennessee Titans who kept it interesting early in the game but the Pats would turn up the heat and win 35-14. In the AFC Championship game, the Patriots would play against the Jacksonville Jaguars who had upset the Pittsburgh Steelers the weekend prior. The Jaguars applied pressure to Brady, kept him off the field for much of the game, holding onto a 7 point lead going into the 4th Quarter. With the score at 17-10, the Patriots would go on a 14-3 run to beat the Jaguars and reach their 10th Super Bowl. 

The Philadelphia Eagles started the season at Washington cruising to a 30-17 victory. Their first loss of the season came the week after against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 27-20. The week after would see the Eagles go on a 9-game winning streak before losing on the road against the Seattle Seahawks 24-10. The Eagles would finish off the regular season winning 3 of their last 4 games, their third loss coming against the Dallas Cowboys, 6-0 in week 17. In the week 14 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, starting quarterback Carson Wentz would injure himself, tearing his ACL, which would be a season ending injury. Nick Foles would step up to help guide the Eagles into the playoffs. In the division round, the Eagles would take on the Atlanta Falcons, who had lost last year's super bowl by the Patriots. The game was a low-scoring affair against two defenses but the Eagles would hold Matt Ryan and company to 10 points giving the Eagles a 15-10 victory. In the NFC championship game against the Minnesota Vikings, who had won their game off a game-winning touchdown by Stephon Diggs. The Vikings scored a touchdown on their first possession of the game. The Vikings would not score again for the rest of the game as they would give up 38 unanswered points to the final score of 38-7. The Eagles would get to their 3rd Super Bowl. 

Keys to the game: 

Patriots:
- Keep Brady on his feet, if he can get good protection he will find his tight ends, wide receivers
- Stop the Eagles rushing attack
- Keep the game close or stay ahead, Bill Belichek is a great adjuster

Eagles:
- Attack Brady early and often, take notes on the 2007 Giants if you have to.
- Keep it balanced, you have a great rushing attack and good receiving corp
- Keep Brady off the field, if you can do that you can win.

Prediction:

New England Patriots. Score: 34-31. 

The matchup will come down to which offense can score the most points. The Patriots defense will struggle against the Eagles offense but will eventually keep it close. Brady once again has the game of his life but throws at least one interception. 

The prediction was very hard to predict as I do enjoy seeing the greats do well against fine competition like Tom Brady. I do also wanted to see North Dakota boy Carson Wentz get a ring as well since it is his team. It was a difficult decision to make but you cannot count out Tom Brady and his drive and will to win. Let alone overcome a 28-3 deficit. 

Let's also take a look at my predictions of Super Bowl's past:

Super Bowl XXXII: Packers vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl XXXIII: Broncos vs Falcons (won)
Super Bowl XXXIV: Rams vs Titans (won)
Super Bowl XXXV: Ravens vs Giants (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVI: Rams vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVII: Raiders vs Buccaneers (lost)
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Panthers vs Patriots (won)
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots vs Eagles (won)
Super Bowl XL: Steelers vs Seahawks (lost)
Super Bowl XLI: Colts vs Bears (won)
Super Bowl XLII: Giants vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers vs Cardinals (lost)
Super Bowl XLIV: Saints vs Colts (won)
Super Bowl XLV: Steelers vs Packers (won)
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants vs Patriots (lost)
Super Bowl XLVII: Ravens vs 49ers (lost)
Super Bowl XLVIII: Seahawks vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl XLIX: Patriots vs Seahawks (lost)
Super Bowl 50: Panthers vs Broncos (lost)
Super Bowl LI: Patriots vs Falcons (won)
All-time record: 8-11
I hope you all enjoyed my time reading my weekly predictions and got some joy out of it. I certainly had a great time doing it. As far as what will happen with this blog during the offseason, it is much up in the air certainly. I do wish to do something like this during Baseball season when that comes later next month. I still have to figure that out. I also have work on some non-sports blogs that will possibly be worked on. Until then, I hope you all enjoy the game, enjoy the food, company, the commercials, the halftime show, and stay safe. 
-Tom

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