NFL 2024 Conference Championship Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The Divisional round is over and we are left with four teams. The four teams, two in each conference, will now play for the right to represent their respective conferences. The Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles will play for the George S. Halas Trophy to represent the National Football Conference. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will play for the Lamar Hunt Trophy to represent the American Football Conference. By the end of Sunday night, we will know what two teams will represent these conferences. Let's get to work!

Conference Championship Preview

The Conference Championship will have two games played where four teams will play. Championship Sunday will start in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and end in Kansas City, Missouri. There will be a Sunday late afternoon game and then a Sunday night game. Let's get to the picks!

Conference Championship Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. 

Washington @ Philadelphia (FOX; 3:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Commanders beat the Lions and the Eagles beat the Rams last week. Championship Sunday starts with a matchup that is reaching its 3rd meeting this season. The season series between these two teams is deadlocked at 1-1. It also helps when they're literally in the same division. The last time these two met, it was a Washington victory with Jalen Hurts being injured with a concussion. It was a close win as the Commanders would win on a Jayden Daniels pass to Jamison Crowder for a 9-yard score and then a successful two-point conversion. Washington would rely on Jayden Daniels a lot for their scoring as he would account for all of the offensive touchdowns Washington had on that day in late December. I think this game will matter a bit more when it comes to trying to stop Daniels. The wide receivers will need to have a good day and I think the defense will need to find a way to slow down Saquon Barkley who had 150 rushing yards in the last matchup. I think the game will speak more to the Commanders defense to step up in rush defense which allows 137.5 yards/game. In terms of pass defense, they're solid as a unit as they can limit opposing pass offenses to 205.4 yards/game. The Commanders defense needs to slow down Saquon Barkley in order to win this game. 

At least the Eagles have made it this far. Unlike the Ravens. The Eagles offense starts with Saquon Barkley who has 324 rushing yards so far in this playoffs. Had it not been for Jalen Hurts injury in the December 23rd matchup, the Eagles might've won that game. Saquon Barkley had a 2,000 yard rushing season but didn't go after Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. Probably for the best they did that. The Eagles will need him to do his thing. The big thing for this game is offensive line play. They do have a tall task in eliminating the pass rush and run defense of the Commanders who as a unit has 43 sacks on the regular season and three in the playoffs. With the high sack numbers it looks like the defensive line puts a hat on their guy and then the linebackers do their thing. Dante Fowler has 10.5 sacks in the regular season. The defense of the Eagles as a unit has 41 sacks to their name in the regular season. Josh Sweat leads the team in that stat with eight sacks this season. The Eagles lead the NFL with forced fumbles with 18 and Washington just has 12. I think the two teams are evenly matched in terms of skill positions and defensive prowess. I think it will ultimately come down to which offensive line can limit sacks and tackles for losses. Football is a battle in the trenches ultimately. I'll take the Eagles but I do like the story in the Commanders this season. 

All-time series: Commanders lead 90-85-5; 2nd postseason meeting (Commanders lead 1-0)

Buffalo @ Kansas City (CBS; 6:30 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Bills beat the Ravens and the Chiefs beat the Texans last week. The matchup that keeps on coming every year. The Allen-Mahomes matchup is reaching to its 9th meeting, 4th postseason meeting overall. It isn't quite Brady-Manning as both of them had won a ring respectively. Josh Allen has yet to take his team to a Super Bowl let alone win one. He has been dominant against other teams in the playoffs but he has yet to defeat Patrick Mahomes in them. This might change possibly. Josh Allen has played well against the Chiefs but his team around him has usually ended up failing him in some way or another. The 2022 Divisional where there was a thousand touchdowns in the last few minutes and into Overtime, the defense would fail him. Sadly the Sudden Death rules were dead as a touchdown in overtime meant game over. Last year's Divisional where the Bills lost 27-24, the kicker would embrace his inner Scott Norwood and hit a field goal that would go wide right. Football is a team game, Josh Allen will get the credit for their success yes but a dual-edged sword also says failures are squarely on him. Not fair but it is what it is. Fortunately, the Chiefs are somewhat of a shadow of his former selves this season as their offense is just rough around the edges and they somehow get wins. Their defense has had to pick up the load. The key for the Bills I think is ensuring the run game can keep going, keep an eye on Chris Jones at all costs, let alone avoid him and have the defense and special teams focused with a "all hands on deck" sort of deal.

The Chiefs are attempting to do something that the 1968 Packers, 1974 Dolphins, 1976 and 1980 Steelers, 1990 49ers, 1994 Cowboys, 1999 Broncos, and 2005 Patriots couldn't do and get to the Super Bowl for the 3rd straight time. Except for the 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers and 1994 Cowboys, all the other teams in that list wouldn't even make it to this point in a conference championship as they all fell either in the Divisional, Wild Card or miss the playoffs. The Chiefs have the pressure to get back to the Super Bowl on them. Buffalo is really playing loose and have an "us against the world" mentality. In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes has dominated Josh Allen's Bills with a 3-0 mark. The 2024 Chiefs just aren't quite the high octane offense they have been this season let alone playoffs. Whether they're saving that for this matchup and the Super Bowl or they have one hand tied behind their back and they're playing with their food. Something just seems off about them. The defense has been playing back to their outstanding performance to last years squad. It just seems like a formula for not outstanding success. To rely on a defense where you face off against an offense that can run the ball will as Buffalo can do and a quarterback that can run and pass just as well as anyone else. There is a reason why three-peats have never happened in the NFL, the long season, free agency, injuries, players retiring are just some of the reason why it never occurs. I still stand by my belief that the field will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl back in the preseason post. I will not turn back now. Let's go Buffalo!

All-time series: Bills lead 30-25-1; 7th postseason meeting (Chiefs lead 4-2)

TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Check local listings for your channel(s).

Washington @ Philadelphia (NFC Championship Game)
Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

Buffalo @ Kansas City (AFC Championship Game)

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

Super Wild Card Weekend: 4-2

Divisional: 2-2

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the AFC Championship Game for the Conference Championship Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom

NFL 2024 Week 18 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The regular season finale is here. By week's end 14 of the 32 teams will move on and continue their season and the rest will go home and plan for next season. There are still a few teams left to lock up either their division or lock up a playoff spot. In this post, I will highlight the latest playoff picture, a preview and picks for Week 18, the Early and Late TV broadcast pairings that FOX and CBS will have for the Sunday afternoon slate. A lot to get to, so let's get started!

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 18

The final week still has a few teams left to get in. There's one division yet to be decided while there is a wild card spot yet to be decided as well. Let's look at the NFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Detroit Lions (14-2)(clinched playoff berth)

2nd seed: Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) (clinched NFC East)

3rd seed: Los Angeles Rams (10-6) (clinched NFC West)

4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

5th seed: Minnesota Vikings (14-2) (clinched playoff berth)

6th seed: Washington Commanders (11-5) (clinched playoff berth)

7th seed: Green Bay Packers (11-5) (Clinched playoff berth)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Washington @ LA Rams

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay

In the Hunt

Atlanta (8-8)

Better Luck Next Year

Seattle (9-7), Dallas (7-9), Arizona (7-9), San Francisco (0-0), New Orleans (5-11), Chicago (4-12), Carolina (4-12), NY Giants (3-13)

Tampa can clinch the NFC South with a win or Falcons loss. Minnesota can clinch the NFC North, #1 seed and homefield advantage with a win against Detroit. A few things to keep an eye on as Falcons and Buccaneers aren't playing against each other. Let's look at the AFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) (Clinched AFC West and homefield advantage)

2nd seed: Buffalo Bills (13-3) (Clinched AFC East)

3rd seed: Baltimore Ravens (11-5) (clinched playoff berth)

4th seed: Houston Texans (9-7) (clinched AFC South)

5th seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) (clinched playoff berth)

6th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) (clinched playoff berth)

7th seed: Denver Broncos (9-7)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Denver @ Buffalo

LA Chargers @ Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Houston

In the Hunt

Miami (8-8), Cincinnati (8-8)

Better Luck Next Year

Indianapolis (7-9), NY Jets (4-12), Las Vegas (4-12), Jacksonville (4-12), Cleveland (3-13), Tennessee (3-13), New England (3-13)

Baltimore can clinch the AFC North with a win or Steelers loss. Same story for the Steelers. Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Dolphins loss or tie plus Bengals loss or tie.

Week 18 Preview

The eighteenth week of the National Football League's regular season starts in Baltimore, Maryland and finish up in Detroit, Michigan. The week features all division games. There will be eight NFC games and eight AFC games. Week 18 will have two Saturday games, eight early games five late games and a Sunday night game. Both FOX and CBS will have doubleheaders this week. Let's get to the picks

Week 18 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern.

Cleveland (3-13) @ Baltimore (11-5) (ABC; 4:30 pm)

Pick: Ravens

The Browns lost to the Dolphins and the Ravens beat the Texans last week. Cleveland has had a rough season. Not to say that Browns fans aren't used to it. Last week, the Browns offense wasn't able to do a lot of anything. Their offense is banged up by injuries, their quarterback situation is pretty much left to be desired. The Browns face off against the Ravens in the season finale. The last time these two teams met it was an upset victory for the Browns. Things have changed since then. Barring the Ravens reverting back to their early days, I don't see the Browns pulling off a victory in this one. It doesn't seem likely. 

Baltimore would just need to do one thing to clinch their division: win. John Harbaugh is certainly looking to seek revenge over the Browns upset win earlier in the season. Baltimore has done it with their versatile balanced attack with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry running the football with the occasional pass play. With a defense that is just as problematic for offenses, I think the Ravens take this game and make clear that they're AFC North champions for another year. I'll take the Ravens. 

All-time series: Ravens lead 36-15

Cincinnati (8-8) @ Pittsburgh (10-6) (ABC; 8:00 pm)

Pick: Steelers

The Bengals beat the Broncos and the Steelers lost to the Chiefs last week. Cincinnati is close to doing something most people never thought they would be able to. They had started 0-3 to start the season and proceed to go on a 8-5 record since then. The offense of Cincy's has been quite the thing to watch. The defense is well left to be desired as they give up about as much points as they score. The Bengals will need to win this game and get some help to get into the tournament. 

Pittsburgh has been having a rough go of it with losing games this late in the season. You'd like to have some wins this time of year to gain some momentum. They certainly had that momentum going for them when they went to the Super Bowl in 2008. The offense has been kind of the big thing that has been hindering them this part of the season. Russell Wilson has been one of the reasons. Something has to be off with him to be that weird. Defense will need to rule the day in the season finale. The Steelers have a playoff berth but they look vulnerable. I'll take the Steelers despite the offense. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 71-39

Buffalo (13-3) @ New England (3-13) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Bills beat the Jets and the Patriots lost to the Chargers last week. Buffalo has had quite the season. They aren't in the drivers seat for the #1 seed but they aren't likely going to drop out of the 2nd seed either. It could be possible that they might rest starters for this game and have the Patriots possibly get a win by a field goal. I'm under the assumption that the Bills will start for a part of the game and let the 2nd stringers go and make a name for themselves. Hard to say what will happen. They could proceed to put up a 40 burger on the Patriots and they salt the earth around Gillette Stadium. 

Drake Maye has been the best thing to happen for the Patriots this season. The quarterback, despite the offensive line issues and turnovers, has a touchdown pass streak going into eight games. The team isn't very good on the rest of the offense and the defense has easily taken a step back. The press has given their opinions that it is possible that head coach Jerod Mayo will return next year. For the sake of rebuilding, it is a given to let him try to build something. This game, will depend on whether if the Bills will rest their starters or if they just go all gung-ho on the Patriots and put the hurt on them. The offense hasn't had a great year and I can't expect the defense to make much noise in this one. I'll take the Bills. 

All-time series: Patriots lead 78-51-1

Carolina (4-12) @ Atlanta (8-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Falcons

The Panthers lost to the Buccaneers and the Falcons lost to the Commanders last week. Carolina has improved a little bit since last year. They just haven't made a big step. The offseason will have to be emphasized on the defense. A good defense will help their offense get better. For this game, the Panthers might do alright against Michael Penix Jr. a quarterback with a small sample size of stats. Or they could just get walked over by him. The key to a Panthers win will be getting Chuba Hubbard back as he is the biggest cog in the offense for the Panthers. 

The verdict on Michael Penix Jr. is still out there. With two starts under his belt with 463 passing yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. I'm not sure what to think about Penix Jr. He is a talent with potential who is probably more of a pocket passer at this point than being a running quarterback that can make plays with his feet. Atlanta's offense in the run game did well against the Panthers but their offense in general should do well as the Panthers defense is kind of a walking carpet in the NFC South. I have to expect that Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgier to do well in this one. I'll take the Falcons. 

All-time series: Falcons lead 37-22

Chicago (4-12) @ Green Bay (11-5) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Packers

The Bears lost to the Seahawks and the Packers lost to the Vikings last week. A lot of hype had been placed on the Bears in the preseason. With many additions from free agency and draft to the offense. The Bears looked like to be the team to break out of the basement and have a quarterback to really make some noise. Like most things, the hype would deflate. Chicago hasn't won a game since whooping the Jaguars in London back in October. It really started with the loss to Washington. Anyway, for this game the Bears offense will keep this close but the Packers defense has to have a chip on its shoulder and really go after Caleb Williams in this one. I can't wait to stop talking about them until at least later next year. 

Green Bay has pretty much played 3rd fiddle to the Lions and Vikings this season. It might play out well to their liking as the Lions and Vikings will play to beat up each other in the finale. Green Bay has had a good season, they gotten a revitalized season out of Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love has done better as of late. The Packers might struggle to get a win if Christian Watson isn't available to help out the passing game. The last time these two teams played was a blocked field goal by Green Bay as it was a potential game-winning one. I have to think that the Packers will try to avoid that in this game. I'll take the Pack. 

All-time series: Packers lead 108-95-6

Houston (9-7) @ Tennessee (3-13) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Texans

The Texans lost to the Ravens and the Titans lost to the Jaguars last week. The Texans have done a few things right this season. They have progressed along and won the AFC South as well as steady the ship that is CJ Stroud's sophomore season. That's about it as Houston is perhaps the weakest of the AFC division winners. Vulnerable is what I would characterize them as. The offense has been somewhat of a mixed bag as they can beat up on lesser opponents but if they want to get to that next level they need to beat the best. At times that level seems to be a mountain. I think the Texans should be able to win this game but unless proven otherwise, they're a one and done team next week. 

Tennessee has been pretty awful on offense. Most of their issues has been on the quarterback but offensive line issues and the offensive line. On defense, the Titans have something to work with as if you actually looked at their numbers this season, they would be one of the better defenses. They have the #1 ranked pass defense allowing just 189.9 yards/game. Getting a person that can disrupt the pass rush would be an ideal one as they are 22nd in stopping the run. In this game, the Joe Mixon vs the defensive front will be something to keep an eye on. Suffice to say, the Texans should win this game. I'll take them as they are just not good enough to keep up with the Texans enough to get a win. I could be wrong. 

All-time series: Titans lead 24-21

Jacksonville (4-12) @ Indianapolis (7-9) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Colts

The Jaguars beat the Titans and the Colts lost to the Giants last week. Jacksonville has had a rough season this year. A lot of their problems stem from the offense with quarterback. Trevor Lawrence has off year and hasn't had a healthy season either. It is a limp to the finish for the Jaguars as they missed the playoffs for the 2nd straight season. The future is somewhat decent as they do have a high draft pick next spring. In this game the Jaguars will have to contend with a Colts team that got eliminated last week and will have to play for their jobs. Jacksonville will as well. The Jaguars might struggle in this one as they are not good at stopping the pass or the run let alone generating offense. 

Indianapolis laid an egg against the Giants. An even bigger egg was missing the playoffs again as they haven't been in the tournament since 2020. The Colts defense let 45 points go by them against one of the worser offenses in the league.. Fortunately for them, the Jaguars are not a great offense. You have to expect defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to light a fire in his defensive players. If they can go after Mac Jones in this game, they should have better results. On offense, they should have an advantage as well as whoever is quarterback can pass the ball fairly well on these guys. Despite missing the playoffs, they might be able to get to a 8-9 season. I'll take the Colts. 

All-time series: Colts lead 27-20

New Orleans (5-11) @ Tampa Bay (9-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Buccaneers

The Saints lost to the Raiders and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers last week. The Saints are just limping along to the finishing line this season. They won't be playing next week but after two weeks, you had half expecting them to make it there. They were scoring points left and right and then the wheels fell off after losing to these Buccaneers at home. The Saints dilemma is the quarterback. They haven't had stability at quarterback as they have gone to three different quarterbacks in Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. New Orleans also fired their head coach as well. In this game, the Saints have opportunity to play spoiler but they need to play their best ball this season and get a win. Atlanta will be watching close by likely as they also play during the early window. How they can achieve this: taking the ball away from Baker Mayfield and sustain drives. Vegas tabbed this game being the Bucs as 13-point favorites. 

Tampa Bay has opportunity to get its fourth straight division crown in a division that had seen a different champion win it every year. To win the division is very simple: win and they're in. Their opponents won't likely make it easy but it is rarely ever easy in the National Football League. Tampa's offensive line is one of the underrated in the league as they can both support the run and pass plays. I think the running game will be wise to use in this game. Ball protection will be ideal as Baker Mayfield has been known to play a gunslinger role and toss passes that land in the opposing side. I think the Buccaneers will just be too much for the Saints to handle. I'll take the Bucs. 

All-time series: Saints lead 40-26

NY Giants (3-13) @ Philadelphia (13-3) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Giants got a win against the Colts and the Eagles beat the Cowboys last week. New York gave its fans some glimmer of hope as they put on an offensive showcase and hung 45 points on the Colts and sent their playoff hopes down the drain in the New Jersey sewer system. The Giants this week will hope to play a similar fashion game against rival Philadelphia as they hope to dash some momentum in them. The offense has seem some promising stars in Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers getting better and better each week. I think they will have a tough time against the Eagles despite Saquon Barkley not playing in this game. 

Philadelphia has had a great year. The catalyst of that successful season has been Saquon Barkley. He crossed the 2,000 yard plateau this season and almost gunned for the single season rushing mark set by Erik Dickerson. The hall of famer will be at ease as Barkley will be sitting this one out. The Eagles offense without Barkley has some players that can be just as good. Kenneth Gainwell hasn't had a lot of carries but I have to expect that he will be used a fair bit in this one. I'm not sure who else will rest but I have to expect Jalen Hurts will sit this one out as well. Despite the starters resting, I think the Eagles will take this one. 

All-time series: Eagles lead 94-88-2

Washington (11-5) @ Dallas (7-9) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Cowboys

The Commanders beat the Falcons and the Cowboys lost to the Eagles last week. Washington has had a good season. It is their first season with more than 10 wins since 1991 when they won 14 games and won a Super Bowl. The potential of Jayden Daniels is quite good but the numbers that he has is not quite up to the Mark Rypien numbers in that season. Jayden Daniels is quite possibly the lock for Rookie of the Year on offense. With 25 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns with 3,530 passing yards. I think it is possible. In this game, the Commanders are going to have to have to play their better games in this one. If the defense can make Dallas be a one-dimensional offense they should do well as the Cowboys were really limited on the running game last week. Rendering Cooper Rush to beat you by himself will help. On offense, jump on Dallas early. 

Dallas was having a particularly rough season at least for quite a while. They were at one point 3-7 with a pretty bleak outlook. While they are out of the playoffs, they do have something to build on and Dak Prescott will be back by the time next season starts. In this game, the Cowboys might have a good shot to get a win. The last time these two teams met it was a defensive struggle and then the 4th quarter happened and the Cowboys and Commanders traded blows where the Cowboys won by a 34-26 victory. Dallas had a rough time running the football. They also turned the ball early and that was one of the reasons why they got blown out by Philadelphia. They will need to protect the ball as well. I'll take the Cowboys to win by a field goal. I can't trust the Commanders to win against a fairly decent offense in Dallas. 

All-time series: Cowboys lead 79-48-2

Kansas City (15-1) @ Denver (9-7) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Broncos

The Chiefs beat the Steelers and the Broncos lost to the Bengals last week. Kansas City locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and have the best record in the NFL. The Chiefs don't have a lot to play for in this game but they do have a chance to become the first team to go 16-1 in the 17-game schedule era. Patrick Mahomes and the starters will not play in this game. This will mean that journeyman Carson Wentz will get a chance to play. He will play in his 2nd straight Week 18 game as he played as a member of the Rams last season. I don't know what the verdict on Wentz as a Chief is but his track record hasn't been great. I think the Broncos defense might do alright against him. 

Denver has had a remarkable season. They achieved their first winning season in almost a decade and they have a chance to get to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 when they won the Super Bowl. The Broncos just need to win and they're in. Bo Nix and the offense has had a good year with Nix being a reasonable candidate for Rookie of the Year. The defense has come around and do well. Last week, the Broncos missed a chance to clinch a playoff spot but they can do so in this one. As long as Bo Nix doesn't throw interceptions and play what he is capable of and go after Carson Wentz, the Broncos should be able to win. Plus it is also in Denver where the altitude will be a factor. 

All-time series: Chiefs lead 73-56

LA Chargers (10-6) @ Las Vegas (4-12) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Chargers

The Chargers beat the Patriots and the Raiders beat the Saints last week. Jim Harbaugh has turned the culture of the Chargers around and got them to the playoffs for the first time in two seasons. The offense is more balanced as Justin Herbert is passing better but not quite the gunslinger or pure passer that he was prior to Harbaugh's arrival. The running game has been the most improved JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards running the football. The defense isn't a slouch either. I think the thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers defense vs the Raiders offense. 

The Raiders have had a rough one of a season. The offense has had a trying time finding stability. Sad fact of life that the quarterback will get the blame for anything that goes wrong on offense. The Raiders case is pretty much they are not that good at quarterback. Aidan O'Connell hasn't proven to be a solid starter that can get touchdowns in the league. The good news for the Raiders is that they have won two straight games. Also, they have a solid talent in tight end with Brock Bowers which seemed like a weird pick up when they already had a tight end that was good. The Raiders tend to win these matchups but I'm leaning towards the Chargers due to having a better offense. I'll take the Chargers. 

All-time series: Raiders lead 69-59-2

Miami (8-8) @ NY Jets (4-12) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Dolphins

The Dolphins beat the Browns and the Jets lost to the Bills last week. Miami has had a rough but good season kind of. More average than anything. Tua Tagovailoa has spent a fair amount of time in injury. He didn't play last week as Tyler Huntley started against Cleveland. Huntley will likely start again as Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip injury. The last time the Dolphins and Jets met it was a overtime thriller won it on a late touchdown 32-26 victory. I would assume the gap between the teams is more level. Huntley played well as he threw and rushed for a touchdown while only missing on four passes. the Jets defense is fairly good so I would assume that he might struggle a bit. 

New York was supposed to have at least 10 wins at this point of the season. Much to everyone's surprise, they have just four wins. Aaron Rodgers has been the reason for the blame but rightly so for the blame. New York's running game hasn't been the best it should be either. Discipline on offense is the thing that hurts a football team as well as turnovers. The Jets had more penalties than points last week. I would have to expect more of the same as they take on the limping Dolphins. Miami needs to win and have some help in order to get in. The Jets could play spoiler as the Dolphins have more to lose than to really gain at this point. I don't trust the Jets so I'll take the Dolphins. 

All-time series: Dolphins lead 61-56-1

Seattle (9-7) @ LA Rams (10-6) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Seahawks

The Seahawks beat the Bears and the Rams beat the Cardinals last week. Seattle was having a kind of successful season. At least somewhat successful under new head coach Mike MacDonald. It is something to build off of for next year. The Seahawks in this game don't have a lot to play for but the opportunity to take over the series tally as both teams are tied with 27 wins. Geno Smith has had kind of an off year with 15 interceptions which pretty much leads the league. He does have 4,000 yards this season. Seattle's defense has been a bit of a question mark for most of the season and their offense has as well. 

The Rams have locked up the NFC West and won't likely move much forward or backward at this point. As a result of this, Matthew Stafford will rest and backup Jimmy Garoppolo will start. Yeah I kind of forgot that he was still in the league. It is hard to say what to expect from the former Patriot and 49ers player. The guy is still relatively fresh this season and it has to be expected that he will provide some offense. I'm not sure who else will sit but I have to expect that the Rams offense can still provide some help to their defense and get a win. The fact that Stafford is resting I would assume that Cooper Kupp will sit and Puka Nacua. I'll take the Seahawks as a safe bet. 

All-time series: Series tied 27-27

San Francisco (6-10) @ Arizona (7-9) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Cardinals

The 49ers lost to the Lions and the Cardinals lost to the Rams last week. Both teams are limping to the finish and will not play next week. San Francisco had the expectation that they would make it past this week and into the playoffs. Injuries and inconsistent play has doomed their season to a current 6-10 campaign. For this game, the 49ers will likely not start Brock Purdy and that spells pretty much doom for their chances to get passing touchdowns at least a lot of them. Purdy and 12 other 49ers will likely not play in this game. A sad thing as the offseason will mean a lot of turnover. For this game, the Cardinals might find some advantage in the passing game and the run game if most of the 49ers starters are banged up. I would have to assume the Cardinals defense won't allow 30 points. 

Arizona has as well faced a lot of injuries and adversity this season. They had at one point had a 6-4 record with their lone win during that time against New England. The offense and defense have largely been the blame on the collapse but perhaps more on Kyler Murray since he's the offense's scapegoat. He just looks a little off and not himself at times. Against a banged up 49ers team and without most of their offensive starters, I would have to expect that the Cardinals to put up points like a juggernaut at times. I would be surprised if the 49ers win this game and allow likely starter Brandon Allen 3-4 touchdowns on the Cardinals defense. I'll take Arizona. 

All-time series: 49ers lead 36-30

Minnesota (14-2) @ Detroit (14-2) (NBC; 8:20 pm)

Pick: Vikings

The Vikings beat the Packers and the Lions beat the 49ers last week. Oh baby, what a season finale this will be. This is the kind of game that you don't really know who is going to win. Minnesota and Detroit have 14 wins each in the NFC North and that doesn't happen very often in the National Football League. It'll be a war in Ford Field. The Vikings in this game have probably the better passing offense than the Lions but they don't have a great run offense. The game will likely come down to who has the ball last and if they have the lead when they have the said ball. Which team that can get the first turnover and who can really get stops. 

Detroit is having one of its best seasons in their history. They have never won 14 games in a season let alone 15. Then there's Minnesota who was in the middle of a rebuilding year (at least we thought) and they too have 14 wins. The Lions offense should do fine as they can hit you in a multitude of ways. Either the run with three different players or by the pass with a multitude of wide receivers. I do think that the Lions defense is not at good as the Vikings defense, both of them pride on stopping the run. The last time these two teams met it was a Lions win 31-29 with the Lions Jake Bates hitting a field goal late in the game. It's a toss-up and might come down to a eeny meeny miny moe pick. The pick is Vikings. 

All-time series: Vikings lead 80-44-2

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

Carolina @ Atlanta

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

Buffalo @ New England

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Houston @ Tennessee

Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, Jay Feely

CBS Late

Kansas City @ Denver

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

LA Chargers @ Las Vegas

Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

FOX Early

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

Washington @ Dallas

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

Chicago @ Green Bay

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Jason Benetti, Brady Quinn

FOX Late

Miami @ NY Jets

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

Seattle @ LA Rams

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

San Francisco @ Arizona

Chris Myers, Mark Schlereth

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024 Maps: Week 18

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11

Week 6: 13-1

Week 7: 13-2

Week 8: 9-7

Week 9: 12-3

Week 10: 10-4

Week 11: 11-3

Week 12: 7-6

Week 13: 14-2

Week 14: 11-3

Week 15: 13-3

Week 16: 12-4

Week 17: 12-4

Total: 184-73

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Sunday night game for the Week 18 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom

NFL 2024 Week 16 Picks

 Hello readers! The week that was Week 15 brought us some crazy storylines and a successful week in picks. With Week 16 upon us, the regular season has just three more weeks left of regular season play left. Not a lot left to just wait and see what happens, teams have to go out and get a playoff spot now or wait until next year. The games that I'm keeping an eye on this week are: the Broncos-Chargers, Steelers-Ravens, Lions-Bears, Eagles-Commanders and Buccaneers-Cowboys games. In this post, I will do a playoff picture for Week 16, as well as the preview and picks for the games, and the Early and Late TV Broadcast pairings that FOX and CBS will have for the Sunday afternoon slate.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 16

The regular season is entering its sixteenth week of play, with three weeks to go including this week. The week has teams locking up playoff berths and some that are still fighting for a spot. Let's take a look at the NFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Detroit Lions (12-2) (clinched playoff berth)

2nd seed: Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) (clinched playoff berth)

3rd seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)

4th seed: Los Angeles Rams (8-6)

5th seed: Minnesota Vikings (12-2) (clinched playoff berth)

6th seed: Green Bay Packers (10-4)

7th seed: Washington Commanders (9-5)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Washington @ Philadelphia

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay

Minnesota vs Los Angeles

In the Hunt

Seattle (8-6), Atlanta (7-7), Arizona (7-7), San Francisco (6-8), Dallas (6-8), New Orleans (5-9)

Better Luck Next Year

Chicago (4-10), Carolina (3-11), NY Giants (2-12)

Detroit is ahead of Philadelphia based on conference record (Lions have 8-1, Eagles have 7-2). Minnesota is behind Detroit based on head-to-head record. The Rams are ahead of the Seahawks based on head-to-head record. Still a lot of things to play out before a division winner is clinched in the NFC. Let's look at the AFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) (clinched AFC West)

2nd seed: Buffalo Bills (11-3) (clinched AFC East)

3rd seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (clinched playoff berth)

4th seed: Houston Texans (9-5) (clinched AFC South)

5th seed: Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

6th seed: Denver Broncos (9-5)

7th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

LA Chargers @ Buffalo

Denver @ Pittsburgh

Baltimore @ Houston

In the Hunt

Indianapolis (6-8), Miami (6-8), Cincinnati (6-8)

Better Luck Next Year

NY Jets (4-10), Cleveland Browns (3-11), Jacksonville (3-11), Tennessee (3-11), New England (3-11), Las Vegas (2-12)

A bit more straightforward with the AFC. The Ravens are ahead of the Broncos because of their head-to-head record. Kansas City can clinch AFC #1 seed with a win and Bills loss or Chiefs tie and Bills loss. If the Steelers win they win the division. Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Dolphins loss and Colts loss. Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Dolphins, Bengals and Colts loss or tie. The Chargers can clinch a playoff berth with a win, Dolphins loss/tie and a Colts loss/tie. A lot to think about. 

Week 16 Preview

The sixteenth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Inglewood, California and finish up in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The week features a 16-game slate where all 32 teams will play. Week 16 has seven division games, two interconference game, two AFC games and five NFC games. There will be a Thursday night game, two Saturday games, seven early games, four late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. No teams are on a bye this week. Doubleheader this week goes to CBS and FOX will have the single, regional game. Let's get to the picks!

Week 16 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern.

Denver (9-5) @ LA Chargers (8-6) (Amazon Prime; 8:15 pm)

Pick: Chargers

The Broncos beat the Colts and the Chargers lost to the Buccaneers last week. Denver keeps on rolling in a season of low expectations for them. the Broncos last week looked down but once the turnovers and momentum swung their way. Once the turnovers came the the score went from a 13-10 lead for the Colts to a 31-13 lead with three touchdowns in eight minutes. The game this week might be the biggest in their season. The Broncos have done it with a good gameplan for Bo Nix to get comfortable and excel at and a defense that can make plays. The Broncos aren't the best at running the football but that could change in an instant. 

Los Angeles, despite getting blown out by Tampa, have their playoff destiny in their own hands. They can lose a billion points but they still have a shot to make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2022 and in the Jim Harbaugh era. I don't know if it was truly their offense that caused them to lose but I think the big play burned the Chargers a lot in that game. While the Broncos aren't known for the big bomb play, I wouldn't count out them from trying it. The Chargers have a better running game than the Broncos and I think that might be the thing that rules the day in Inglewood. I'll take the Chargers. 

All-time series: Broncos lead 73-56-1

Houston (9-5) @ Kansas City (13-1) (NBC; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Texans

The Texans beat the Dolphins and the Chiefs beat the Browns last week. Houston got a win against a relatively decent team in Miami. The Dolphins couldn't do a whole lot due to the Texans defense. Houston's offense did enough to get a win with 20 points. The Texans this week go up against the class of the AFC in the Chiefs. Houston might have some advantage in this game. The Chiefs offense just seems to be missing a beat at times. If they can throw Patrick Mahomes off a bit. It all depends really on if the prolific passer can play this game as he is day-to-day with a knee injury. It might be enough for the Texans to get a win with a weakened Chiefs team. 

Kansas City will play in nearly most days this season. They have played on a Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday and a Wednesday this season. Truly they are everywhere on the television. The Chiefs got a win against the Browns and they really put the hurt that most fans felt that the 21-7 score did not enough justice. The win might've been a bit of a cost if Patrick Mahomes is feeling the hurt for this one and going forward. His backup is Carson Wentz, a quarterback who has been jumping from team to team since his days as an Eagle. Regardless, the offense should do okay with Mahomes but I question how well they matchup against the Texans defense. The Chiefs will need to win and get some help to clinch the #1 seed in the AFC playoffs. It seems a bit of a risk but I'll take the Texans. 

All-time series: Chiefs lead 9-5

Pittsburgh (10-4) @ Baltimore (9-5) (FOX; 4:30 pm)

Pick: Steelers

The Steelers lost to the Eagles and the Ravens beat the Giants last week. The 2nd of the two games being shown on Saturday. It is the first time that FOX will show the epic Steelers-Ravens rivalry. The Steelers come into this game with a humbling loss against the Eagles. Sadly it will be at least another season to see if they can win in Philadelphia since 1965. History aside, the Steelers have dominated the rivalry for the past few seasons. The games have been a low-scoring affair but defense has generally dominated the games. Pittsburgh's defense should be able to handle the Ravens offense at least one would would assume. I question the Steelers offense as they have been faltering a little bit. Physical football usually includes the running game and the Steelers will need a good game from Najee Harris. 

Baltimore comes into this game with a big win against New York. It was against the Giants but a win is a win in order to get to this point in the season. Baltimore will need to find opportunities in the holes of the Steelers defense to get a win. Lamar Jackson has had a bit of a rough record against Pittsburgh. He dominates everyone else but the Steelers are his kryptonite. Protecting the football and the rest of the Ravens stepping up will be needed for the Ravens to take a win. A good game from Derrick Henry will be good as well. Baltimore is favored by 6 points but these division games, anything can happen. I just don't know if the Ravens can beat the Steelers but anything can happen. I'll take the Steelers. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 36-25

Cleveland (3-11) @ Cincinnati (6-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Bengals

The Browns lost to the Chiefs and the Bengals beat the Titans last week. Cleveland has had a rough season. The play of Jameis Winston hasn't helped. Injuries to their stars on offense haven't helped either. DeShaun Watson getting injured didn't help either. If Kevin Stefanski gets fired I hope he gets another job. He deserves better. Cleveland will be without the help of Nick Chubb who once again got an injury in the loss against Kansas City. The running game should be alright as Jerome Ford is a capable running back as he had a long run last week for a touchdown. 

Cincinnati is a bit of a stable team when it comes to their Northern Ohio neighbors. Sadly the Bengals are very dangerous in missing the playoffs if they lose a game the rest of the way. Even more unfortunate is that even if they win they will still likely lose a chance to play January football. Joe Burrow and company should have a good shot to win on offense as they can run and pass. The defense is a bit suspect as they can give up points just as much as their offense puts up. Cleveland will possibly start Dorian Thompson-Robinson for this game as Jameis Winston hits the bench. It is a good sign for the Bengals and I will take them in this game. 

All-time series: Bengals lead 54-48

Arizona (7-7) @ Carolina (3-11) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Cardinals

The Cardinals beat the Patriots and the Panthers lost to the Cowboys last week. Arizona got a win last week. It was a needed win as the Cardinals before the game had a three-game losing streak going on. It was against the Patriots but at this time of the season, a win is a win. They got it done with a running game that is very underrated and a defense that effectively shut down the Patriots offense until the latter moments in the 4th quarter. Into this week, the Cardinals will need to win the rest of their games to attempt to get into the playoffs. They face off against Carolina who has the opportunity to play spoiler. The Cardinals in this game will need to keep the pace up and utilize the running game and protect the football as much as possible. The Panthers aren't a good team, don't give them a reason to let them in this game. 

Carolina has had a rough season. It was to be expected as they were hovering around this sort of record last year. At this point of the season, most players are just trying to keep their jobs or showcase their talents to other teams during the offseason. Carolina would like nothing more than to play spoiler to the Cardinals. What they need to do is make Kyler Murray uncomfortable. They need to play their best football in this game and hope for the best that Bryce Young becomes the next Cam Newton or something. I just don't see that happening as the Cardinals know the stakes in this game. 

All-time series: Panthers lead 14-6

Detroit (12-2) @ Chicago (4-10) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Lions

The Lions lost to the Bills and the Bears lost to the Vikings last week. Detroit suffered a loss for the first time since Week 2 against Tampa Bay. It was a bit of a humbling loss but it was against Buffalo. At least it wasn't against Carolina. Division games are a bit of an odd one as both teams know each other very well and they tend to be very physical. Especially in this iteration of the Black and Blue division. Detroit should win this game but the last time these two teams played it was a bit of a chaotic ending. Matt Eberflus and clock management anyone? Detroit will need to play well in this game and not play with their food in this one. The Bears have Vikings fans watching this game and certainly Packers fans as well. 

Chicago has had a rough one this season. The expectations of the team in preseason was that they would be a quality offense. They were at one point 4-2 this season. Then the loss to Washington happened. Chicago has generally played up to the Lions this season. They almost won on Thanksgiving had Matt Eberflus actually used a timeout and used his time wisely. Caleb Williams had a good game in that game with three touchdowns. Keenan Allen was a matchup nightmare as well as DJ Moore as they had both a good game. Chicago didn't utilize their running game a whole lot in the game and I wish they would do something to take the pressure off of Caleb Williams. I don't trust the Bears in this one so I'll take the Lions. 

All-time series: Bears lead 105-79-5

LA Rams (8-6) @ NY Jets (4-10) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Rams

The Rams beat the 49ers and the Jets beat the Jaguars last week. The Rams swept the 49ers in a season series. They didn't do a whole lot on offense but they did more than the 49ers at least. With four field goals they snuck past the 49ers. With the 49ers out of the way, the Rams look to either get in the playoffs as a wild card or a division winner. First they have to beat the Jets. New York's offense isn't a slouch but it isn't a high-octane machine either. The Rams defense might struggle a bit. What was impressing was the Rams defense in shutting down the 49ers offense. It'll be a big thing to build on for this week. 

New York got a big win against the Jaguars. It wasn't a defining win or a win that will get them a playoff spot or anything of the like. It was important to rebuild their confidence and get them into a competitive spirit and something to build on for next year. They will face a new task in the Rams this week. The offense will need to keep and more against a Rams defense that might've been overlooked in more ways than one. The key will be the Jets defense against the Rams offense. The Rams offense will utilize their tandem of wide receivers to move the ball down the field. I'll take the Rams, I don't trust the Jets. 

All-time series: Rams lead 10-5

New England (3-11) @ Buffalo (11-3) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Patriots lost to the Cardinals and the Bills beat the Lions last week. The Patriots have had a long season. It usually is long when you're a team that is within the top-5 in the draft. They have a 3-11 record which isn't great but given expectations of the team, it wasn't expected to be high. They will face off against their former punching bag in the Bills who have now turned the tables on their rivals since 2020. The Patriots do have Drake Maye who has a promising career ahead of him. Sadly his rookie season will be marred by offensive ineptitude and bad offensive line play. I find it hard to take these guys in this one when they don't do great on either side of the ball. 

Buffalo looks to once again be the ones to roll over the AFC East again. They have already locked up the division a few weeks ago and now don't have a lot to play for. Unless the Chiefs suddenly collapse, the Bills will have to travel at some point in the playoffs. The Bills heading into this game should be able to win with a top-heavy offense and a defense that is just as good. Yes the defense has given up 40+ points in the last two weeks, the Patriots offense doesn't have a guy named Tom Brady under center. I just think that the Bills shouldn't underestimate and put up points early in this one against the Patriots. 

All-time series: Patriots lead 78-50-1

NY Giants (2-12) @ Atlanta (7-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Falcons

The Giants lost to the Ravens and the Falcons beat the Raiders last week. New York has had a rough season. Enough to the point where planes fly over MetLife Stadium begging the Mara family to sell the team. Keep in mind, the Mara's have own the team since the team's founding in the 1920's. New York in this game might be okayish. Tommy DeVito got injured in his first start last week and Tim Boyle will likely get the nod in this one. The sample for Boyle is a 12-14 passing for 123 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Giants passing game has been a eyesore and they do have Malik Nabers to build off of in a wide receiver corp. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been a decent back as well. I am not sure how well the Giants can play against a new quarterback for the Falcons. 

Atlanta is currently at 7-7 on the season. Pretty much average in the grand scheme of things. A bit of a surprise this week is Kirk Cousins getting benched in favor of rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. out of the University of Washington. The play of Kirk Cousins has been a bit spotty but to go with a change this late in the season is a bit weird. The sample size of Michael Penix Jr. is small with 3 of 5 passing for 38 yards. New York is not a great team so maybe they wanted to see what he could do against them. Let him dip his toes in the water so to speak. Maybe a change was needed if they see things with Penix Jr. The rest of the offense should do well in an effort to appease their new teammate. I think the Falcons should win. 

All-time series: Falcons lead 14-12

Philadelphia (12-2) @ Washington (9-5) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Commanders

The Eagles beat the Steelers and the Commanders beat the Saints last week. The Eagles looked really good against the Steelers. They had their way with them and even got a few touchdowns past their defensive front. Anything is up in the air when it comes to division matchups and the Eagles and Commanders have always kept things close. The last time these two teams met, the Eagles would score 20 points in the 4th quarter and would hold off one last Commanders march. I think things will be different when they're in Landover. I think the offense needs to get back to running the ball a bit more against the Commanders. It seemed to work well last time. As well as stopping the Commanders run game. 

Washington was having a bit of a struggling part of their season. Fortunately they got a win against the Saints and felt that they were back in control of themselves. It would take a missed 2-point conversion for them to win but nonetheless, the Commanders got a needed win to keep the other hopeful playoff teams out. This game might mean a bit more to the Commanders as they are seeking their first playoff berth since 2020. The Eagles are a very good team I will be honest. It will be a task for the Commanders to win against them. It is a hands on deck sort of game. If they can slow down the Eagles run game they have a shot to do it. The Commanders will need a good game against their run game and have their wide receivers find holes in the Eagles defense. I think it's a tall task but I'll take the Commanders.

All-time series: commanders lead 89-85-5

Tennessee (3-11) @ Indianapolis (6-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Colts

The Titans lost to the Bengals and the Colts lost to the Broncos last week. Tennessee has had a rough season. The team is just not a great offensive team. They do have a decent run game with Tony Pollard but the rest of the team is just playing meh football. The defense is sadly better than the offense but most people wouldn't have noticed it based on their record. The Titans could possibly play spoiler as the Colts are trying to hang on and hope for a playoff spot. I just don't know if they can keep up against them. The play of Anthony Richardson could possibly give the Titans a run for their money. He is a wild card. 

Indianapolis had a chance to go up on the Broncos. Had Jonathan Taylor held onto the ball and have the ball crossed the plane. Instead, he did a Leon Lett and didn't score a touchdown. Since that play, the Colts were outscored 21 points in unanswered fashion. Turnovers were the thing in that game as Anthony Richardson and the offense gave up the ball four times in the 2nd half. You can't do that in any game in the NFL and hope to win. Fortunately, they play against the cellar team in the AFC South this week. Anthony Richardson is a wild card of a quarterback. You just don't know what you'll get with him. I still think the Colts would've been better off with Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't get paid enough sadly to be a head coach in the NFL. Nor do I want to deal with owner Jim Irsay. The Colts should be able to win but at this point, I don't know how well they can do in this game. They could win by 20 or 2 at this point. I'll take the Colts. 

All-time series: Colts lead 38-22

Minnesota (12-2) @ Seattle (8-6) (FOX; 4:05 pm)

Pick: Vikings

The Vikings beat the Bears and the Seahawks lost to the Packers last week. Minnesota has had a successful season. They could possibly win this game and have the Lions lose and they would be able to take control of the NFC North. For this game, the Vikings will need to play better in terms of passing the ball. Sam Darnold was off a bit on some throws against Chicago, including the rare interception last week. The offense will need to do their due diligence against the Seahawks defense that was having a decent time of things this season. The Vikings should win this game with their offense and the defense shutting down the Seahawks offense with Sam Howell or Geno Smith. Whoever makes the start at quarterback. 

Seattle had a chance to get more of a leg up on the division. Last week against Green Bay, it all came crashing down. They lost Geno Smith to injury and the offense fell apart as expected. The defense got tired and they let the Packers push through and get a win on the road. Sadly the 12th man couldn't save them. With another NFC North team coming to down, the Seahawks will need to once again have their offense try to outscore against a team that is probably better on offense than them. I don't know if the Seahawks offense can keep up against the Vikings offense. It will be telling if the Seahawks defense can put a few stops together and get a win. I don't think it'll happen. 

All-time series: Seahawks lead 13-6

Jacksonville (3-11) @ Las Vegas (2-12) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Raiders

The Jaguars lost to the Jets and the Raiders lost to the Falcons last week. A battle of two teams vying for the #1 pick. Sadly one of them has to win this one or at least tie. It could get ugly. Mac Jones as a Jaguar hasn't gone great. Maybe to be expected as he was slightly better when he was in New England. The experiment has kind of failed. The rest of the team isn't as better but they have some pieces to work. Tank Bigsby is certainly a capable running back that can get yards. 

Las Vegas is currently having a similar season to Jacksonville. They have had a season full of spotty quarterback play and defensive play that is just not good. Desmond Ridder is their best option for the rest of the season. The Raiders have had some history with playing against Mac Jones with his time in New England. For example, the terrible play in the 2022 game in the final seconds of the game. Maybe that might give them some insights to this game. The defense should do alright as Mac Jones as a Jaguar is just really ugly. The game reeks of awful and I don't want to think about it anymore. Raiders win. 

All-time series: Jaguars lead 6-4

San Francisco (6-8) @ Miami (6-8) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Dolphins

Both teams lost as the 49ers lost to the Rams and the Dolphins lost to the Texans last week. San Francisco has had a slightly rough season in an NFC title defense this season. It is a season of injuries, not closing out games, not paying attention to details sort of season. The injuries happens to all teams. It is a recurring theme for the 49ers in past seasons. It might be a season where the 49ers will have to make a lot of decisions regarding keeping or letting Christian McCaffrey go or paying Brock Purdy big money. That's in the future. In this game, the 49ers might be able to get a win but they have to do better on offense with a balance on offense and take the pressure off of Brock Purdy. The defense will have its hands full with Jonnu Smith and Tyreek Hill for sure.

Miami has had a roller coaster of a season. The losses have mostly been caused by Tua Tagovailoa missing time and then the offense with Tua failing to get more points than the opposition. The offense will need to play better and protect the football. The 49ers defensive line might be down but they are not out in terms of missing key players. Defensively, the Dolphins might be finding their hands full in the game as the 49ers do have some players that are quite good with Deebo Samuel and Isaac Guerendo in the backup role of McCaffrey. The big thing is keeping Brock Purdy on the sideline. I really wish that the Dolphins would utilize their running game more often but I don't get paid enough to be an NFL head coach. I don't trust the 49ers so I'll take the Dolphins. 

All-time series: Dolphins lead 8-7

Tampa Bay (8-6) @ Dallas (6-8) (NBC; 8:20 pm)

Pick: Buccaneers

The Buccaneers beat the Chargers and the Cowboys beat the Panthers last week. The Sunday night game features a team that is trying to stay in the playoffs as a division winner while the other is just trying to get a win and hope for the best. Tampa got a big win against the Chargers. A win against a relatively good team in Los Angeles. With a healthy core the Buccaneers can make a run and make opponents in the NFC playoffs quake at their feet. I wouldn't want to face them with that tandem of wide receivers and a running game that can hurt. The Buccaneers offense isn't without faults. Baker Mayfield has been known to throw interceptions when he shouldn't. He plays the hero a bit too much at times. They need to be cautious against the Cowboys. 

The Cowboys are down but they are not out in terms of the playoffs. They need to win this game and get some help. The game itself is a night game and the teams ahead of Dallas could very well have won and the game might be more meaningless than anything. Cowboys fans might need to become Eagles fans which is kind of odd if you ask me. The Cowboys in this game might have some struggle keeping up with the Buccaneers on offense. If Dak Prescott was playing this might be a different story. Cooper Rush could very well possibly do well in the Buccaneers defense. You do have to remember he threw three touchdowns against the Panthers defense. I think the Buccaneers take this game so that we don't have to hear more about Dallas.  

All-time series: Cowboys lead 16-6

New Orleans (5-9) @ Green Bay (10-4) (ABC; 8:15 pm)

Pick: Packers

The Saints lost to the Commanders and the Packers beat the Seahawks last week. New Orleans was once upon a time the highest scoring, highest-yardage team in the NFL. That was back in Week 2 after a blowout win at Dallas. You'd be surprised to see that they are 3-9 since that time. It certainly hurts even more that their offensive leader in passing stats is injured again. Jake Haener wasn't much of a factor against Washington but his backup Spencer Rattler did provide some help to an offense that needed it. They now go to the cold of Lambeau Field a few days before Christmas. I don't trust their offense but maybe their defense can do something against the Packers. Maybe is a bit of a stretch. 

Green Bay is currently at 10-4 and will likely play 3rd wheel to the Lions and Vikings in the overpowered NFC North. It might work out well to their advantage as they can be viewed as an underdog of sorts. The offense needs to keep going and play error-free football in this point of the season. The running game has been doing well with Josh Jacobs surpassing the 1,000 rushing yard mark. The Packers defense last week did really well against the decent offense of the Seahawks, going after the quarterback. It is a formula that they should find some advantage with Spencer Rattler in at quarterback. I'll take the Pack. 

All-time series: Packers lead 18-10

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

LA Rams @ NY Jets

Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, Jay Feely

Cleveland @ Cincinnati

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

CBS Late

San Francisco @ Miami

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Jacksonville @ Las Vegas

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

New England @ Buffalo

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

FOX Single

Philadelphia @ Washington

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

NY Giants @ Atlanta

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston

Detroit @ Chicago

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

Arizona @ Carolina

Chris Myers, Mark Schlereth

Minnesota @ Seattle (Late)

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024: Week 16 Maps

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11

Week 6: 13-1

Week 7: 13-2

Week 8: 9-7

Week 9: 12-3

Week 10: 10-4

Week 11: 11-3

Week 12: 7-6

Week 13: 14-2

Week 14: 11-3

Week 15: 13-3

Total: 160-65

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 16 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom