NFL 2018 Week 11 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is soon to be upon us. The league is entering its 11th week of competition. In this column, I'll give my take on Le'Veon Bell not reporting to the Steelers, the 50th anniversary of "The Heidi Game," the latest playoff standings, and of course the picks! Let's get started.

Saved By The No Bell

The latest news out of Pittsburgh is that star running back Le'Veon Bell did not report to the Steelers facilities by early this week in order to participate in the remainder of the 2018 season. The decision to not come shouldn't have been that big of a surprise as much as the media was trying to make a case for it. It felt that it was expected for Bell to not come at all.

It's a smart move for the Steelers as they have a running back that is capable of carrying the load in an offense that is very balanced. James Conner walked into a situation that was a very low risk, high reward. In as little as one game into the 2018 season, the Steelers already knew the answer to who would replace Bell in the Steelers offense. Low risk in that he had the motivation to be in more and provide to the Steelers offense and the high reward of being just as good, if not better, than Bell.

For Le'Veon Bell it means that he will become a free agent at the end of the season and common sense would suggest that the Steelers should not franchise tag him since he obviously wants more money. The only reason why he held out was that he wanted more money so why give him even more. That's my two cents on it at least.

The Game That Changed It All

Picture it, you turn on the TV, turning it to CBS, half expecting that the news program "60 Minutes" would be on at its normal time at 7:00 pm (eastern time) but instead you see a football game on. In today's circumstances, the game would be on until its conclusion, but what if I told you that was not the case in 1968.

On November 17th, 1968 the New York Jets traveled to Oakland to play the Raiders in a game that started at 4:00 pm Eastern time, it would not end until after it's supposed 7:00 Eastern time slot. Heck, the 4th quarter started at 6:20 pm Eastern, any doubts that the game end before 7 died with it.

The game was televised on NBC and had Curt Gowdy and Al Rogatis as the commentators for the game. The network kept promoting the movie, Heidi, a family, Made-For-TV movie based off of an 1880 novel of the same name, as they were contractually obligated to show it, instead of the football game. By the time the network switched from Jets-Raiders to showing the movie the score of the game was 32-29 in favor of the Jets. By the end of the game, the Raiders would score two touchdowns, one from a 43-yard pass from Daryle Lamonica to Charlie Smith and from a 2-yard fumble return.

NBC switchboards on the east coast would blow out, the number of angry phone calls was staggering, the damage had been done. At the time there was only a handful of channels for people to choose from, and movies like Heidi came very seldom. You can't blame NBC for it really, either way, they would get angry phone calls from either non-football fans or football fans. There were no rules in regards to showing the game in its entirety.

Ultimately, the two teams would meet again in the American Football League playoffs for the AFL Championship, the Jets would get some revenge and would ultimately upset the NFL champion Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. So in the end, it would change how the NFL was shown on television. Even if it happened nearly 50 years ago, it's still fun to look back at history.

Playoff Picture: Week 11

AFC:

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2nd seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1)
3rd seed: New England Patriots (7-3)
4th seed: Houston Texans (6-3)
5th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)
6th seed: Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

Wild Card:

Cincinnati @ New England
LA Chargers @ Houston

In the hunt:

Tennessee Titans (5-4), Miami Dolphins (5-5), Baltimore Ravens (4-5), Indianapolis Colts (4-5), Cleveland Browns (3-6-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6), Denver Broncos (3-6), Buffalo Bills (3-7), NY Jets (3-7), Oakland Raiders (1-8)

NFC:

1st seed: Los Angeles Rams (9-1)
2nd seed: New Orleans Saints (8-1)
3rd seed: Chicago Bears (6-3)
4th seed: Washington Redskins (6-3)
5th seed: Carolina Panthers (6-3)
6th seed: Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1)

Wild card:

Minnesota @ Chicago
Carolina @ Washington

In the hunt:

Green Bay Packers (4-4-1), Atlanta Falcons (4-5), Seattle Seahawks (4-5), Dallas Cowboys (4-5), Philadelphia Eagles (4-5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6), Detroit Lions (3-6), Arizona Cardinals (2-7), NY Giants (2-7), San Francisco 49ers (2-8)

Some of the big games that have big implications is the Vikings-Bears game on Sunday night, the Packers-Seahawks game on Thursday night, as well as the Eagles-Saints game for the late slate on Sunday. If the Vikings beat the Bears then they would be ahead of the Bears due to the head-to-head factor.

Cool video of the week:

As I had talked about earlier in the column, I talked about "The Heidi Game" between the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders. In some parts of the country, the game switched to the movie, while the rest of the country still watched the game in its entirety. This video on YouTube wasn't the game-to-movie footage, but rather the game showed until the final whistle. The footage that had the AFL had rules in regards to showing games past its time slot. Anyways here is this week's cool video the week!

Week 11 Picks

Week 11 of the National Football League will begin in Seattle, Washington, and end in Los Angeles, California. There will be 13 games on the week's slate. The week features a Thursday night game, seven early games, three late games, a Sunday night game, and a Monday night game. The Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers are on a bye week. FOX will have the doubleheader, and CBS will have the single, regional game. Let's get to the picks!

Green Bay (4-4-1) @ Seattle (4-5) (FOX/NFL Network): TW: Packers, CV: Seahawks

The Packers got a win against the Dolphins and the Seahawks lost to the Rams last week. The game will be on my birthday, as I turn 30 years old. The last time the Packers were playing on my birthday they would lose to the Lions at home for the first time in 20+ years. Hoping for a different result. The game I feel will come down to if the Packers defense can keep the Seahawks offense at bay and the Packers offense gives the ball to Aaron Jones at least 20+ times in this game. Go Pack Go!

Houston (6-3) @ Washington (6-3) (CBS): TW: Texans, CV: Texans

The Texans were on a bye week and the Redskins got a win against the Buccaneers last week. The two teams look evenly matched as both teams feature two good running attacks. I feel it will come down to the quarterback play. I trust DeShaun Watson more than Alex Smith as Watson has put up better numbers over the last few weeks than Smith has. The Texans defense is quite good as well as long as JJ Watt is in the lineup. Overall, I trust Houston to get the job done. 

Pittsburgh (6-2-1) @ Jacksonville (3-6) (CBS): TW: Steelers, CV: Steelers

The Steelers got a win against the Panthers on Thursday night and the Jaguars lost to the Colts last week. The game was originally slated to be on Sunday night but was flexed out due to the Jaguars not being as good as they were at this time last year. I had picked the Jaguars a few times too much over the season and I have to jump off their bandwagon for this week. Ultimately the Steelers should win with stellar offense and with the distraction of Le'Veon Bell off their minds they should get a win. I hope.

Tennessee (5-4) @ Indianapolis (4-5) (CBS): TW: Colts, CV: Titans

Both teams got a win last week as the Titans beat the Patriots and the Colts beat the Jaguars. The game features two interesting offensive attacks, two proven quarterbacks in Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck. The Colts have put up better offensive numbers than the Titans even though the Titans blew out the Pats 34-10 last week. The game will come down to the Titans offense vs Colts defense matchup. If one side of the ball dominates the line of scrimmage then the favorable team should get the win. I trust Andrew Luck a bit more. Sorry Titans.

Dallas (4-5) @ Atlanta (4-5) (FOX): TW: Cowboys, CV: Cowboys

The Cowboys got a win against the Eagles and the Falcons lost to the Browns last week. The Cowboys should get the win as they have offensive weapons in Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, and Amari Cooper. The Falcons defense is ranked 30th in overall defense so far this season, 29th in pass defense. The Falcons can make a case to keep it close but I don't trust them in this matchup.

Tampa Bay (3-6) @ NY Giants (2-7) (FOX): TW: Giants, CV: Buccaneers

The Buccaneers lost to the Redskins and the Giants beat the 49ers last week. The game might've looked like a playoff matchup at the start of the season but its pretty far from it now. I'm going for the Giants because if their defense can shut down Tampa's running game forcing them to pass the ball, making them one-dimensional they have a shot to win the game as the Bucs have the #1 passing offense in the league so far. The Giants are 10th in pass defense. Something has to give in this one, and I'll take the home team. 

Cincinnati (5-4) @ Baltimore (4-5) (CBS): TW: Ravens, CV: Ravens

The Bengals lost to the Saints and the Ravens were on a bye week last week. The Bengals have fallen off the AFC North division race since the last time these two teams played each other early in the season. I like the Ravens in this matchup as they still have a solid, great defense that can shut down offenses and if they can cause harm to the Bengals offense, then they should pick up a victory as the Bengals defense is banged up. Could be a field day for Joe Flacco.

Carolina (6-3) @ Detroit (3-6) (FOX): TW: Panthers, CV: Panthers

Both teams took losses last week as the Panthers lost to the Steelers and the Lions lost to the Bears. The game will come down to if the Panthers offense can continue doing what they've been doing all year, relying on the arm and legs of Cam Newton and the legs and arms of their running backs and wide receivers. The Lions are falling apart and I don't think they can keep up with the Panthers offense, let alone get into a rhythm against the Panthers defense. 

Denver (3-6) @ LA Chargers (7-2) (CBS): TW: Chargers, CV: Chargers

The Broncos were on a bye week and the Chargers got a win against the Raiders last week. The Chargers have been on a roll, winning six straight games and they play a Broncos team that is desperate into getting back into winning ways. Case Keenum has been a decent QB for the team so far but I like the rejuvenated Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense. I like Melvin Gordon getting rushing yards and Keenan Allen getting the receiving yards. Get it done Chargers!

Oakland (1-8) @ Arizona (2-7) (CBS): TW: Cardinals, CV: Cardinals

Both teams took losses last week as the Raiders lost to the Chargers and the Cardinals lost to the Chiefs. The game could be a low-scoring, close affair as the two teams on offense are meh. The Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald and he alone can dictate how well this game can be played. That's mostly the reason why I like the Cardinals in this game, I can't trust the Raiders enough to give them a benefit of the doubt. 

Philadelphia (4-5) @ New Orleans (8-1) (FOX): TW: Saints, CV: Saints

The Eagles lost to the Cowboys and the Saints got a win against the Bengals. The defending champs are in a big hole and if they want to get back into the postseason, they need to win this game. Against a team that can put up quite the offensive numbers, I don't see the Eagles winning this one. In the Superdome, the crowd can be quite loud and the Eagles will need to take the crowd out early in order to win. Steep hill for the Eagles to climb and I trust the Saints to win. 

Minnesota (5-3-1) @ Chicago (6-3) (NBC): TW: Vikings, CV: Vikings

The Vikings were on a bye week and the Bears beat the Lions last week respectively. The game will be one of the better games of the week. Both teams are top 5 in overall defense and they have good offenses. The game will depend on whether or not the Bears can run the ball against a Vikings defense that is 3rd in run defense. The Bears have yet to play really good competition and we will learn a lot about the Bears this week. I like the Vikings in the matchup. I just hope Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen will be in the game. 

Kansas City (9-1) @ LA Rams (9-1) (ESPN): TW: Rams, CV: Rams

Both teams got wins last week as the Chiefs beat the Cardinals and the Rams beat the Seahawks. The game will be one of the higher scoring games on the season, it will be a great game on ESPN that has had made it a joke to have bad games on Monday night. The two teams combine for an 18-2 record, 871.1 total offensive yards per game and both quarterbacks have thrown for over 50 touchdowns. The game will come down to which defense can stop the other team enough to score more points in the game. The Rams defense is probably the better of the two and I'll take them in this one. Great way to end the week with a game like this. 

Local TV Schedule (courtesy of 506sports.com, subject to change):

CBS Single:

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

FOX Early:

Carolina @ Detroit

Kenny Albert, Charles Davis

FOX Late:

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

For more information on which game is played in your area, check out: NFL Maps: Week 11

Records:

Tom (me)
2018:
Week 1: 10-5-1
Week 2: 6-9-1
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3
Week 5: 6-9
Week 6: 10-5
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 11-3
Week 9: 9-4
Week 10: 7-7
Overall: 89-57-2

Cardinal Viking
2018:
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 9-6-1
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-6
Week 6: 6-9
Week 7: 12-2
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 9-5
Overall: 85-61-2

See you guys on Monday for the Week 11 Recap column, enjoy the games, and have a great weekend!
-Tom

EDIT #1: Put in Cardinal Viking's picks for the games. 

NFL 2018 Week 9 Picks

Hello readers! The time has come yet again to write up and post a column for the National Football League's 9th week of competition. The 9th week of the season is the mid-way point of the year, pretty much from here on out the week's get to the double digits and the playoff picture gets a bit clearer. We're still a few weeks away from really getting into the "playoffs" discussion. In this column, I'll talk about trades in the NFL, a recap of the trade deadline's moves, and of course the picks.

Trades in the NFL

When it comes to trades in sports, you usually hear more about trade news from such sports leagues like the NBA, MLB, and the NHL. A trade in the NFL, you don't really hear about it as much. Most often than not the reason for this is that the season is shorter, most teams are happy with what they have on their rosters, and the draft picks are in general more valuable as you can find a diamond in the rough than the other sports. Not also to mention that you have a free farm system in the NCAA to back you up.

If a team would trade something, that specific team would trade their player for a future draft pick. The name of the game is what you get out of that trade than what you give. If you trade your star wide receiver for a lower round draft pick (like a 5th rounder) then it wouldn't be as valuable since you get to pick later in the draft. It's all about relative value.

Secondary help in Washington, running back depth in Baltimore, and more.

The Green Bay Packers perhaps made the big news on trade deadline day as they would send Ha-Ha Clinton Dix and Ty Montgomery to Washington and Baltimore respectively. Clinton-Dix, the 5th year man out of Alabama, has recorded 27 tackles with three interceptions. Montgomery, ran the ball 26 times for 105 yards and a touchdown on the season. The Packers received a 4th-round pick for Clinton-Dix and a 7th-round 2020 pick for Montgomery.

A couple of wide receivers also got traded. Demaryius Thomas was traded to the Houston Texans for a 4th and 7th round picks. Denver would also trade a 7th-round pick to Houston as well. Thomas has received 402 yards and three touchdowns on the season. Golden Tate would be traded to Philadelphia for a 2019 3rd round pick. Golden Tate has 517 yards receiving for three touchdowns on the season. As far as who was the real winner of it all, it would be the Oakland Raiders. We shall see if these moves pay off for these teams in the future.

Cool video of the week

This week's cool of the week is a sort of a throwback to what the NFL was like 10 years ago. The NFL was a totally different place in 2008. Such things were: Tom Brady was out for the season due to a knee injury, the Patriots would not win the AFC East, Vince Young was a promising star in the league, Marshawn Lynch was playing for the Buffalo Bills, Brett Favre was traded to the Jets, and a promising quarterback named Aaron Rodgers would start his first full season in the NFL. The Youtube channel, KTO, is a pretty cool channel, check out the channel's other work.

Week 9 picks

Week 9 in the NFL regular season starts in Santa Clara, California and ends in Arlington, Texas. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants, and the Philadelphia Eagles are on a bye week. CBS will have the single, regional game, and FOX will have the doubleheader. There will be a Thursday night game, seven early games, three late games, a Sunday night game, and a Monday night game. A total of 13 games. Let's get to the picks!

Oakland (1-6) @ San Francisco (1-7) (FOX/NFL Network): TW: Raiders; CV: Raiders

Both teams took losses last week as the Raiders lost to the Colts and the 49ers to the Cardinals. I might go on a whim and give the Raiders a nod in the matchup. CJ Beathard could not be starting due to a wrist injury and if that's the case then Nick Mullens would get the nod. The Raiders have some stability on the quarterback with Derek Carr and the Raiders defense could have a decent game against the Niners. Really bad game for Thursday night, which sadly goes together. 

Chicago (4-3) @ Buffalo (2-6) (FOX): TW: Bears; CV: Bears

The Bears got a win against the Jets and the Bills lost to the Patriots last week respectively. The Bears have been playing well on offense and had a rebound game against the Jets last week after giving up 30+ points to the Dolphins and Patriots. I feel the Bears will dominate on both sides of the ball as the Bills have no real answer on offense and their defense could give some trouble to the Bears but I'm not holding my breath on the Bills getting the upset. 

Pittsburgh (4-2-1) @ Baltimore (4-4) (CBS): TW: Steelers; CV: Steelers 

The Steelers got a win against the Browns and the Ravens lost to the Panthers last week. The game will come down to the Steelers offense vs the Ravens defense. Which one will break the other? Ultimately I like the Steelers chances in this one. If the Steelers can make a few big plays against the Ravens defense, with either Antonio Brown and James Conner helming the offense for Pittsburgh, I'll take them. The Ravens could very well win the game as well since they are at home. It's a huge game for both teams if they want to gain some ground on each other in the division. 

Atlanta (3-4) @ Washington (5-2) (FOX): TW: Redskins; CV: Redskins

Falcons were on a bye week and the Redskins got a win against the Giants last week. The game will come down to which offense shows up for the Redskins. Washington is 25th in overall offense on the season. The defense should be fine as they did pick up Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers this week. Alex Smith will need to step up in the air attack as the Falcons will try to focus on Adrian Peterson and try to shut him down. I'll take the Redskins due to their running attack and tight defense. 

Detroit (3-4) @ Minnesota (4-3-1) (FOX): TW: Vikings; CV: Vikings

Both teams took losses last week as the Lions lost to the Seahawks and the Vikings to the Saints. The game will come down to which team shows up for the Vikings. Will it be a dominating defensive effort for the Vikings or will it be like last week's Saints game for them? In a tight divisional race, I'll give the Vikes a benefit of the doubt as they still have a solid defense and an offense that can get going in a hurry. Give me the Purple & Gold. 

Kansas City (7-1) @ Cleveland (2-5-1) (CBS): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs

The Chiefs got a win against the Broncos and the Browns lost to the Steelers last week respectively. The game will come down to if the Chiefs can avoid the trap game and get a win a hostile Cleveland crowd. If the Browns can avoid doing Browns things then they have a chance in the game. I can't hold my breath as the Browns did get rid of Hue Jackson earlier in the week. I'll take the Mahomes Train for another week. 

NY Jets (3-5) @ Miami (4-4) (CBS): TW: Dolphins; CV: Jets

Both teams got losses last week the Jets lost to the Bears and the Dolphins to the Texans. The game is really and truly a toss-up game. Not based on the fact that both teams are good, but that they're really bad. I'm only really taking the Dolphins because they're at home and the Dolphins offense is slightly better than the Jets. Not also to mention the last time that both teams were playing each other, Sam Darnold had a terrible game. 

Tampa Bay (3-4) @ Carolina (5-2) (FOX): TW: Panthers; CV: Panthers

The Buccaneers lost to the Bengals and the Panthers got a win against the Ravens. The game will come down to who will start for the Buccaneers this Sunday. Will it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston? Such questions at quarterback have me questioning on if they can win. I'll take the Panthers in this one as they have a fun offense to watch and can play defense with the big boys (13th overall defense). Cam Newton could have a big game. 

Houston (5-3) @ Denver (3-5) (CBS): TW: Texans; CV: Texans

The Texans got a win against the Dolphins and the Broncos lost to the Chiefs last week. The game will feature a return of Demaryius Thomas to Denver. The game could be quite the offensive showcase for both teams but they also play good defense as well. Vegas as the Broncos as a 1-point favorite in the game. It's really a toss-up matchup. 

LA Chargers (5-2) @ Seattle (4-3) (CBS): TW: Chargers; CV: Chargers

The Chargers were on a bye and the Seahawks beat the Lions last week. The game is a really good matchup if you do enjoy offense vs defense. I like the Chargers in the matchup as they have a versatile offense, and it will depend on if they can have success against the Seahawks defense as it is ranked 5th in overall defense. The game will really come down to which team can control the line of scrimmage more. 

LA Rams (8-0) @ New Orleans (6-1) (FOX): TW: Saints; CV: Rams

Both teams got wins last week as the Rams beat the Packers and the Saints beat the Vikings. The game is the marquee game of the early/late games as both teams offenses are very stellar. The only question will be whether or not the Saints defense can rise to the challenge of stopping the Rams running game and forcing the Rams into being a one-dimensional offense. If they can do that they have a shot at forcing the Rams to lose for the first time this season, thus laying the ghosts of the 1972 Dolphins to rest for another year. Geaux Saints!

Green Bay (3-3-1) @ New England (6-2) (NBC): TW: Packers; CV: Patriots

The Packers lost to the Rams and the Patriots beat the Bills last week. The game is certainly a good one on paper but as far as both defenses goes, not so much. The two offenses feature two quarterbacks that wear #12 and are both quite good. The game will come down to which defense can step up and give their team's offense the best chance to win the game as both offenses will put points on the board. Don't let me down for another week, please Packers! 

Tennessee (3-4) @ Dallas (3-4) (ESPN): TW: Cowboys; CV: Cowboys

Both teams were on a bye last week. The week finishes up with a decent matchup in Texas. The Cowboys will have a new weapon in Amari Cooper to showcase how well he can run against a Titans defense that is ranked 11th in the league. The game will come down to which offense shows up to play. I'll take the Cowboys in the game as they might get a boost in the passing attack with Cooper in their lineup, as well as Ezekiel Elliot doing Ezekiel Elliot things. 

Local TV Schedule (via 506sports.com, subject to change):

CBS Single:

Kansas City @ Cleveland

Greg Gumbel, Bruce Arians, Trent Green

FOX Early: 

Detroit @ Minnesota

Thom Brennamen, Chris Spielman

FOX Late:

LA Rams @ New Orleans

Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

For more info on which game will be on in your area, check out: NFL Maps: Week 9

2018:
Week 1: 10-5-1
Week 2: 6-9-1
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3
Week 5: 6-9
Week 6: 10-5
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 11-3
Overall: 73-46-2

Cardinal Viking
2018:
Week 1: 8-7-1
Week 2: 9-6-1
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-6
Week 6: 6-9
Week 7: 12-2
Week 8: 10-4
Overall: 68-51-2

Enjoy your Halloween, the weekend and the week's games. I'll see you guys on Monday for the week's recap column!
-Tom