NFL 2024 Conference Championship Recap

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action has come to an end. The week that was Championship Sunday would see four teams enter competition on Sunday afternoon and evening and we now have two teams that will represent the National Football Conference and the American Football Conference. The team representing the National Football Conference is the Philadelphia Eagles. The team representing the American Football Conference is the Kansas City Chiefs. In this post, I will break down how these teams got to this point. Let's get to work!

NFL Conference Championship Freaky Stat

Jalen Hurts' three rushing touchdowns and Saquon Barkley's three rushing touchdowns are the most in the NFC Championship Game's history. Philadelphia's 55 points is the most in Conference Championship game history, breaking 1990 Bills record 51 points in the AFC Championship game against the Raiders. 

NFL Conference Championship Recap

Washington 23, Philadelphia 55

Pick: Eagles

Philadelphia clobbers Washington and makes it back to the Super Bowl. Jayden Daniels hit 29 of 48 passes for 255 yards with a touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin. McLaurin's touchdown of 36 yards was the longest pass play for the Commanders. Jayden Daniels would toss an interception in the game. Daniels would also rush into the endzone for a score while getting six carries for 48 yards in the game. Washington's longest run in the game was a 19-yard run by Daniels. Brian Robinson was running back with the most yards with 11 carries for 36 yards in the game. Zach Ertz had 11 catches for 104 yards in the game. Washington would come undone in this game due to many factors: turnovers, unable to stop the run and not getting production on the run game. The first turnover was a Dyami Brown fumble which turned into a Eagles touchdown. Turnovers yielded to Eagles touchdowns. You're not going to win games against a great team like the Eagles like that. Pass protection would fail Washington as well as the Eagles did get to Jayden Daniels early and often. It was just hope and luck that would need to fall for Washington in this game and sadly it wasn't meant to be. Jayden Daniels has been a nice story and Washington's revitalization from a 4-win team last year to a NFC Championship Game appearance is nothing short but amazing and would make for a great story. For the Commanders, they got humbled but have something to look forward to next season while getting 350 total yards. 

Jalen Hurts hit 20 of 28 passes for 246 yards with a touchdown pass to AJ Brown. The passing game would be a footnote to what the run game would do to the Washington Commanders in this one. Saquon Barkley would do his thing and had 15 carries for 118 yards with three touchdowns. The touchdown runs were from 60, 4 and 4 yards. His 3rd touchdown would give a hat trick and would channel his inner Steph Curry and went to bed. Will Shipley had four carries for 77 yards with a touchdown. Most of his carries and yards came in the 4th quarter with Barkley resting the bench. Both Barkley and Shipley had runs of 60 and 57 yards to be the longest runs in the game for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts had 10 carries for 16 yards and had three touchdowns of his own in the game. AJ Brown was the leading receiver with six catches for 96 yards in the game. He had a catch that went for a 31-yard gain to be the longest pass play for the Eagles in the game. Philadelphia would arguably play its best game of the season. They would use their running game a lot in this one with their scoring. Jalen Hurts looked the best that he has ever been and looks like his 2022 self. Philadelphia would even take advantage of some Tush Push's in this one. It's hard to get to a Super Bowl, its even harder to make it back to one after the faltering season they had last year. This season, they look to right the wrong of losing a Super Bowl and will play as the National Football Conference's champion. The Eagles had 459 total yards in the game. 

Next week:

Washington: go sight see in the Capitol or something.
Philadelphia: Bye then Super Bowl vs Kansas City

TW: 1-0

Buffalo 29, Kansas City 32

Pick: Bills

Allen-Mahomes IX provided some great moments. Josh Allen hit 22 of 34 passes for 237 yards with two touchdowns. The two touchdowns went to Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel. James Cook had 13 carries for 85 yards with two touchdowns on 6 and 1 yard plays. Cook had a run of 33 yards that was the longest run play in the game for the Bills. Mack Hollins was the leading receiver for the Bills with three catches for 73 yards and had a catch that went for a 34-yard gain. The Bills would do everything that they could to play well against the Chiefs and they still lost. The defense wouldn't be able to stop the Chiefs and the Bills wouldn't be able to get out of their own way. Penalties would falter them as well as they had some really bad penalties that were so unnecessary. Facemasks, false starts, and pass interferences would cost them as well. The crucial play I think it was the 4th down call for Allen to get for a first down that was ultimately fallen short. The last 4th down play was just a prayer as Chiefs Defensive Coordinator dialed up a blitz that caused Josh Allen to fluster and throw a prayer. He almost had one answered had tight end Dalton Kincaid caught it. It's a pattern that is unmatched in life: death, taxes and the Bills shitting the bed in January. It is still a great season and the Bills were short to get back to the big game. For the Bills, the season ends but did put up 374 total yards in the game. 

Patrick Mahomes hit 18 of 26 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown pass to Xavier Worthy. The player that the Bills let the Chiefs pick in the draft via trade. Kareem Hunt had 17 carries for 64 yards with a touchdown run on a 12-yard run. Patrick Mahomes had two touchdown runs on 8 and 10 yard plays. He had a run of 12 yards that was also the longest run in the game along with Hunt's run. Xavier Worthy was the leading receiver with six catches for 85 yards. Juju Smith-Schuster had a catch that went for a 31-yard gain to be the longest pass play for the Chiefs. The Chiefs would almost lose this game as they couldn't contain the run of the Bills. It would take a pep talk by Steve Spagnola for the defense to step up as they would plug a Josh Allen sneak for a 4th down conversion. The 4th down and 5 play would have the legend coordinator call on a 4-man rush that would break easily and forced Josh Allen to throw a prayer that would ultimately go incomplete. The Chiefs would do what they had to do to win and that would come on the passing game that would be an Achilles heel for the Bills in the game. The defense would ultimately win the day as they hung tough. The Chiefs are now the first team on the quest to three-peat to get to the Super Bowl. No other team has reached this point in the Super Bowl era that started in 1967. Lombardi's Packers, Shula's Dolphins, Noll's Steelers, Walsh and Seifert's 49ers, Johnson and Switzer's Cowboys, Shanahan's Broncos, and Belichick's Patriots wouldn't be able to achieve this mark. Kansas City has one more game to go to make it happen. They will face off against a familiar foe in the Philadelphia Eagles, who they had beaten two years before in Super Bowl LVII. They will try to do it in two weeks. 

Next week:

Buffalo: Eat some wings or something
Kansas City: Bye then Super Bowl vs Philadelphia

TW: 1-1

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

Super Wild Card Weekend: 4-2

Divisional: 2-2

Conference Championship: 1-1

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

I will be posting the Super Bowl LIX post sometime around this time next week or so, keep an eye out for it! Enjoy your week!

-Tom

NFL 2024 Conference Championship Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The Divisional round is over and we are left with four teams. The four teams, two in each conference, will now play for the right to represent their respective conferences. The Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles will play for the George S. Halas Trophy to represent the National Football Conference. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will play for the Lamar Hunt Trophy to represent the American Football Conference. By the end of Sunday night, we will know what two teams will represent these conferences. Let's get to work!

Conference Championship Preview

The Conference Championship will have two games played where four teams will play. Championship Sunday will start in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and end in Kansas City, Missouri. There will be a Sunday late afternoon game and then a Sunday night game. Let's get to the picks!

Conference Championship Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. 

Washington @ Philadelphia (FOX; 3:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Commanders beat the Lions and the Eagles beat the Rams last week. Championship Sunday starts with a matchup that is reaching its 3rd meeting this season. The season series between these two teams is deadlocked at 1-1. It also helps when they're literally in the same division. The last time these two met, it was a Washington victory with Jalen Hurts being injured with a concussion. It was a close win as the Commanders would win on a Jayden Daniels pass to Jamison Crowder for a 9-yard score and then a successful two-point conversion. Washington would rely on Jayden Daniels a lot for their scoring as he would account for all of the offensive touchdowns Washington had on that day in late December. I think this game will matter a bit more when it comes to trying to stop Daniels. The wide receivers will need to have a good day and I think the defense will need to find a way to slow down Saquon Barkley who had 150 rushing yards in the last matchup. I think the game will speak more to the Commanders defense to step up in rush defense which allows 137.5 yards/game. In terms of pass defense, they're solid as a unit as they can limit opposing pass offenses to 205.4 yards/game. The Commanders defense needs to slow down Saquon Barkley in order to win this game. 

At least the Eagles have made it this far. Unlike the Ravens. The Eagles offense starts with Saquon Barkley who has 324 rushing yards so far in this playoffs. Had it not been for Jalen Hurts injury in the December 23rd matchup, the Eagles might've won that game. Saquon Barkley had a 2,000 yard rushing season but didn't go after Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. Probably for the best they did that. The Eagles will need him to do his thing. The big thing for this game is offensive line play. They do have a tall task in eliminating the pass rush and run defense of the Commanders who as a unit has 43 sacks on the regular season and three in the playoffs. With the high sack numbers it looks like the defensive line puts a hat on their guy and then the linebackers do their thing. Dante Fowler has 10.5 sacks in the regular season. The defense of the Eagles as a unit has 41 sacks to their name in the regular season. Josh Sweat leads the team in that stat with eight sacks this season. The Eagles lead the NFL with forced fumbles with 18 and Washington just has 12. I think the two teams are evenly matched in terms of skill positions and defensive prowess. I think it will ultimately come down to which offensive line can limit sacks and tackles for losses. Football is a battle in the trenches ultimately. I'll take the Eagles but I do like the story in the Commanders this season. 

All-time series: Commanders lead 90-85-5; 2nd postseason meeting (Commanders lead 1-0)

Buffalo @ Kansas City (CBS; 6:30 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Bills beat the Ravens and the Chiefs beat the Texans last week. The matchup that keeps on coming every year. The Allen-Mahomes matchup is reaching to its 9th meeting, 4th postseason meeting overall. It isn't quite Brady-Manning as both of them had won a ring respectively. Josh Allen has yet to take his team to a Super Bowl let alone win one. He has been dominant against other teams in the playoffs but he has yet to defeat Patrick Mahomes in them. This might change possibly. Josh Allen has played well against the Chiefs but his team around him has usually ended up failing him in some way or another. The 2022 Divisional where there was a thousand touchdowns in the last few minutes and into Overtime, the defense would fail him. Sadly the Sudden Death rules were dead as a touchdown in overtime meant game over. Last year's Divisional where the Bills lost 27-24, the kicker would embrace his inner Scott Norwood and hit a field goal that would go wide right. Football is a team game, Josh Allen will get the credit for their success yes but a dual-edged sword also says failures are squarely on him. Not fair but it is what it is. Fortunately, the Chiefs are somewhat of a shadow of his former selves this season as their offense is just rough around the edges and they somehow get wins. Their defense has had to pick up the load. The key for the Bills I think is ensuring the run game can keep going, keep an eye on Chris Jones at all costs, let alone avoid him and have the defense and special teams focused with a "all hands on deck" sort of deal.

The Chiefs are attempting to do something that the 1968 Packers, 1974 Dolphins, 1976 and 1980 Steelers, 1990 49ers, 1994 Cowboys, 1999 Broncos, and 2005 Patriots couldn't do and get to the Super Bowl for the 3rd straight time. Except for the 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers and 1994 Cowboys, all the other teams in that list wouldn't even make it to this point in a conference championship as they all fell either in the Divisional, Wild Card or miss the playoffs. The Chiefs have the pressure to get back to the Super Bowl on them. Buffalo is really playing loose and have an "us against the world" mentality. In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes has dominated Josh Allen's Bills with a 3-0 mark. The 2024 Chiefs just aren't quite the high octane offense they have been this season let alone playoffs. Whether they're saving that for this matchup and the Super Bowl or they have one hand tied behind their back and they're playing with their food. Something just seems off about them. The defense has been playing back to their outstanding performance to last years squad. It just seems like a formula for not outstanding success. To rely on a defense where you face off against an offense that can run the ball will as Buffalo can do and a quarterback that can run and pass just as well as anyone else. There is a reason why three-peats have never happened in the NFL, the long season, free agency, injuries, players retiring are just some of the reason why it never occurs. I still stand by my belief that the field will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl back in the preseason post. I will not turn back now. Let's go Buffalo!

All-time series: Bills lead 30-25-1; 7th postseason meeting (Chiefs lead 4-2)

TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Check local listings for your channel(s).

Washington @ Philadelphia (NFC Championship Game)
Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

Buffalo @ Kansas City (AFC Championship Game)

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

Super Wild Card Weekend: 4-2

Divisional: 2-2

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the AFC Championship Game for the Conference Championship Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom

NFL 2024 Super Wild Card Weekend Recap

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action has come to an end. The first week of the playoffs is in the books and of the 12 teams that came into it, only six remain. Of those six, they will take on the two teams that had a bye this week. There was some interesting games this week. Such games like the Texans shutting down the Chargers,

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Freaky Stat

The blocked field goal for a defensive conversion in the Chargers-Texans game was the 1st in NFL history. Kind of cool. Jayden Daniels becomes the 4th rookie quarterback to win a playoff game in NFL history. 

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Recap

LA Chargers 12, Houston 32

Pick: Chargers

The Chargers get roughed up in Houston. Justin Herbert hit 14 of 32 passes for 242 yards with a touchdown but also tossed four interceptions. The touchdown pass went to Ladd McConkey on a 86-yard pass play on a 3rd down and 26 play. It was also the longest pass play for the Chargers. JK Dobbins had nine carries for 26 yards. The longest run was an eight-yard play by both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Ladd McConkey had nine catches for 197 yards in the game. A pretty solid day for him. So the Texans defense really put the hurt on the Chargers in this one. They shut down the running game and forced Justin Herbert to throw a lot. Herbert would hit less than half of his passes as 197 of his 242 passing yards went to McConkey. The rest of the receivers would combine 45 yards passing. The defense would do kind of a decent job in getting an interception of their own but the next play for the Chargers, it was intercepted. There was also a 3-point swing as the Texans blocked a point after and returned it for a 2-point play. In the end, the Chargers just didn't get enough of their offense going and turnovers costed them a lot. Back to the drawing board for them this offseason. For the Chargers, they are a one and done team again and head into the offseason. 

CJ Stroud hit 22 of 33 passes for 282 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The touchdown went to Nico Collins on a 13-yard play. Joe Mixon had 25 carries for 106 yards with a touchdown run on a 17-yard run on the left. The longest run play was a 27-yard run by CJ Stroud. Nico Collins had seven catches for 122 yards in the game and had a catch that went for a 41-yard gain to be the longest pass play for the Texans. Defensively the Texans would step up to the challenge and take on the Chargers offense. They would intercept four passes, for the Chargers to go 3-11 on 3rd down and 0-1 on 4th down and sacked Justin Herbert four times. They would also intercept a pass that was returned to the endzone for a pick-six by Eric Murray. One of the rarer plays in football also happened. On the point after after the McConkey touchdown the Texans blocked a kick and was returned to their endzone for a defensive conversion worth two points. The change was made in 2015 and this game was the first ever. The person who returned it was D'Angelo Ross, a 4th-year player out of New Mexico. It'll be something that he can cherish for the rest of his life. Hopefully he can keep the ball or a souvenir. I was wrong about the Texans being in a weaker division, their offense would play quiet for a good portion of the game but would get going once they found a rhythm with the Collins touchdown. Their running back, defense and special teams in a way found a way to win. For the Texans, they get another playoff win and play next week. 

Next week:

LA Chargers: help out those in the LA wildfires maybe
Houston: Divisional Round @ Kansas City

TW: 0-1

Pittsburgh 14, Baltimore 28

Pick: Ravens

The Ravens run game runs over the Steelers. Russell Wilson hit 20 of 29 passes for 270 yards with two touchdowns. The two touchdowns went to George Pickens and Van Jefferson. Both touchdowns came in the 3rd quarter. Najee Harris had six carries for 17 yards. The longest run for Pittsburgh was a 5-yard run by Harris and Russell Wilson. George Pickens had five catches for 87 yards in the game. The longest pass play was a Mike Williams catch that went for a 37-yard gain. The Steelers offense would go slow much like the last month's games worth. They wouldn't score until 8:10 left in the 3rd quarter on the Van Jefferson score. The running game would get very little in terms of yards as they would combine a total of 29 yards. Just a rough one. It seems to add another problem for the Steelers as they can start off will in the first few months of the season but they falter somehow in the months of December and January should they reach here. They haven't won a playoff game since 2017 since beating Kansas City (which is wild btw). For the Steelers, their season ends with some things to consider in the offseason. 

Lamar Jackson hit 16 of 21 passes for 175 yards with two passing touchdowns. He also had 15 carries for 81 yards in the game. The passing touchdowns went to Rashod Bateman and Justice Hill. The star of the game was Derrick Henry who had 26 carries for 186 yards with to rushing touchdowns on 8 and 44 yard plays. The 44-yard play was the longest run for the game for the Ravens. Isiah Likely had three catches for 53 yards in the game to be the leading receiver for the Ravens. The longest pass paly was a 25-yard pass play to Isiah Likely and Nelson Agholor. The Ravens defense would stop the run and the Ravens offense would utilize Derrick Henry a lot. The Steelers were dealing with a skid but could've rebounded against a rival. The Ravens would put a stop to that as they would hold the Steelers run game to just 29 yards and to just 280 total yards in the game. For the Ravens, they get a win and move onto the Divisional round. 

Next week:

Pittsburgh: eat a pierogi or something.
Baltimore: Division round @ Buffalo

TW: 1-1

Denver 7, Buffalo 31

Pick: Bills

The Bills stampede over the Broncos. Bo Nix hit 13 of 22 passes for 144 yards with a touchdown. The touchdown went to Troy Franklin. It would be the only score for the Broncos all game. It happened on a 43-yard play where the Bills defense was caught off guard. It was also the longest pass play for the Broncos. Bo Nix rushed four times for 43 yards to be the Broncos leading rusher. He had a run of 18 yards that was the longest run for the Broncos. Javonte Williams had seven carries for 29 yards. Cortland Sutton had five catches for 75 yards to be the leading receiver for the Broncos. Denver would do not a lot of scoring afterwards as all their other drives resulted in: a punt, punt, field goal miss, a punt, a punt, turnover on downs and turnover on downs. The longest sustained drive they had was a drive in the 4th quarter that went for 61 yards. The Broncos offense wouldn't do their defense good either as they held the ball for 18:17 of game time. A poor running game has been their issue for most of the season and it hurt them in this one. For the Broncos, they had 224 total yards in the game and head back home for the long offseason. At least they made it to the playoffs. 

Josh Allen hit 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns and had eight rushes for 46 yards. The two touchdowns went to Curtis Samuel and Ty Johnson. The Johnson touchdown came on a 24-yard play where it was under review whether or not Johnson caught the ball. It was upheld. The Samuel pass was the result of a deep pass of 55 yards. James Cook had 23 carries for 120 yards with a touchdown run on a 5-yard play. The score would give the Bills their first and only lead in the game. Denver wouldn't get a lead afterwards. Curtis Samuel had three catches for 68 yards in the game and had a 55-yard play for a catch to be the longest pass play for the Bills in the game. Buffalo would start off slow but the drive that would give them the lead was the result of a 13-play, 86-yard drive that consumed 7:35 of gametime. The Bills would only punt once in this game and that was during the 2nd quarter. Afterwards all of their drives resulted in either a field goal, touchdown or end of game. There was some question on how well the Bills would play due to a loss against the Patriots. They wouldn't outscore the Broncos early but they rather forced the Broncos defense on the field for a long time. Once they took hold of the lead they wouldn't relinquish it. Buffalo moves on and plays in the divisional round and will play host to the Ravens. For the Bills, they had 471 total yards and win their 5th straight wild card game. 

Next week:

Denver: go skiing or something
Buffalo: Divisional round vs Baltimore

TW: 2-1

Green Bay 10, Philadelphia 22

Pick: Eagles

Turnovers doom the Pack in Philly. Jordan Love hit 20 of 33 passes for 212 yards with three interceptions. He had no passing touchdowns. Josh Jacobs had 18 carries for 81 yards with Green Bay's only touchdown on a 1-yard run. He had a 31-yard run that was the longest run of the Packers in the game. It was a run that Jacobs kept going as he had players in Eagle uniforms all over him and he still ran. He almost scored a touchdown on the run as he was down on the 1-yard line. Jayden Reed had four catches for 46 yards in the game. The longest pass play was a catch by Dontayvion Wicks that went for a 29-yard gain. Turnovers would really ultimately kill the Pack in this one. Jordan Love really hurt his team as he had interceptions in the 1st, 2nd and 4th quarters. All of them came within 3:30 left in those quarters. A field goal miss would be missed by Brandon McManus as well so that didn't help either. Green Bay wouldn't score until 11:33 in the 3rd quarter which took the lead down to a 10-3 lead on a McManus field goal. Had the turnovers not happen they might've had a better chance of winning. Christian Watson not being available will be possibly an excuse but honestly it wouldn't have made a difference. Green Bay's season ends as possibly the Vikings move on and the Lions will play next week. For the Packers, they head home to snowy Green Bay with 302 total yards in the game. 

Jalen Hurts had 13 of 21 passes for 131 yards with two touchdowns and had six carries for 36 yards. The passing touchdowns went to Dallas Goedert and Jahan Dotson. Dotson's touchdown came on a 11-yard score on a short pass that got things going for the Eagles. Goedert's touchdown came on a 24-yard play but Jake Elliott would miss on the point after attempt. Saquon Barkley rushed 25 times for 119 yards in the game. He had a 17-yard run that was the longest run in the game for the Eagles. Devonta Smith had four catches for 55 yards in the game and had a catch that was caught for a 28-yard gain that was the longest pass play for the Eagles. The Eagles would play up to par with the Packers offense but the defense spoke the most in this game as Quinyon Mitchel, Darius Slay and Zack Baun were the players that caught the interceptions. The turnovers would then lead to a touchdown off of one of the turnovers. Not really much else to say about this as most games up to this point in the playoffs have been won by the home team. For the Eagles, they continue onto the next round and had 290 total yards in the game. 

Next week:

Green Bay: what is there to do in Green Bay?
Philadelphia: Divisional round vs

TW: 3-1

Washington 23, Tampa Bay 20

Pick: Commanders

Zane Gonzalez field goal and doink sends the Commanders past the Bucs. Jayden Daniels had 24 of 35 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns. The two touchdowns went to Terry McLaurin on a 5-yard play and the other went to Dyami Brown on a 10-yard play. Jayden Daniels was the leading rusher with 13 carries for 36 yards in the game. Austin Ekeler had eight carries for 27 yards in the game and had one run went for a 12-yard gain to be the longest run for the Commanders. Terry McLaurin was the leading receiver with seven catches for 89 yards. He had a catch that went for a 35-yard gain that was the longest pass play in the game. The game changer was a fumble recovery by veteran Bobby Wagner. Despite the win, the Commanders did have issues with pass protection and the running game didn't do as much as I had hoped they would do. Gonzalez's kick could've gone a different direction or somethin in the final play. Might've been an overtime. Despite all that, Washington has a playoff winner for the first time since they were the Redskins, beating the Buccaneers 17-10 on January 7th, 2006. With the Packers losing earlier on Sunday, the Commanders are the lowest seed in the playoffs and will head to the Motor City to take on the Lions. They had 350 total yards in the game

Baker Mayfield had 15 of 18 passes for 185 yards with two touchdowns. The two touchdowns went to Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving had 17 carries for 77 yards and had a run that went for a 19-yard gain that was the longest run play for the Buccaneers. Mike Evans had seven catches for 92 yards in the game to be the leading receiver for the Buccaneers. The longest pass play was a catch by Jalen McMillan for a 26-yard gain. Tampa would play neck and neck with the Commanders in this one. The game changer was possibly the fumble. The play was supposed to be a pitch out to Jalen McMillan but it was aborted and fumbled and was recovered by Bobby Wagner. Their offense wouldn't be able to sustain drives and keep the Commanders offense off the field. Let alone their defense couldn't get stops as Washington had conversions on 3rd and 4th down. The Buccaneers will head home and spend the rest of the season watching the rest of the NFL play next week. The offense had 284 total yards in the game. 

Next week:

Washington: Divisional round @ Detroit
Tampa Bay: do things in Florida.

TW: 4-1

Minnesota 9, LA Rams 27

Pick: Vikings

Rams sack the Vikings on neutral site. Sam Darnold hit 25 of 40 passes for 245 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The touchdown went to TJ Hockenson. Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 48 yards in the game. The longest run in the game for the Vikings was a 26-yard run by Cam Akers. TJ Hockenson was the leading receiver with five catches for 64 yards. He had a catch that went for a 26-yard gain that came from his touchdown. Some questionable calls were in this game with the Matthew Stafford incomplete pass that was originally called a fumble. It could've been intentional grounding as well possibly. It can't hide the fact that the Vikings pass protection broke down a lot as Darnold was sacked nine times for 82 yards. Along with the interception, the Vikings also fumbled as well. In general, the Vikings did have chances in this game but sadly couldn't as they did sustain drives and had better offensive numbers for the most part than the Rams. At least they scored a touchdown. The Vikings Cinderella season ends with disappointment as most people didn't think they'd be here at alone have a winning record winning 14 games. For the Vikings, they had 269 total yards in the game. 

Matthew Stafford hit 19 of 27 passes for 209 yards with two touchdowns. The two touchdowns went to Kyren Williams and Davis Allen. Kyren Williams had 16 carries for 76 yards to be the leading rusher. The longest run in the game was a 17-yard carry by Williams in the game. Tyler Higbee had five catches for 58 yards in the game. The longest pass play was a catch by Cooper Kupp that went for a 29-yard gain. It was the only catch by the former Eastern Washington player. The Rams would get their pass catchers involved early as Puka Nacua was used a lot in the early going to avoid the Vikings pass rush. Minnesota would only manage to get to Stafford two times for a loss of seven yards. Issues for the Rams in this one was penalties as they were flagged 10 times for 95 yards, sometimes it was on consecutive plays. One drive had a holding call on them and then the next play was a false start. You can't have that in the playoffs. Conversions on 3rd down would be a problem as well as the Rams had went just 2 for 10 on 3rd down. I don't know who was really the better team in this game, the team that seemed ready was the Rams but they had mistakes. Suffice to say, the real winners in this game were the Arizona Cardinals who were able to get this game going on short notice. Hopefully the families and first responders in the Los Angeles wildfires were able to take time away from the pain to enjoy their Rams win. For the Rams, they move on and head east to take on the Eagles and had 292 total yards in the game.

Next week:

Minnesota: go ice fishing or something
LA Rams: Divisional @ Philadelphia

TW: 4-2

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

Super Wild Card Weekend: 4-2

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all on Thursday/Friday for the Divisional Picks post! Enjoy your week!

-Tom

NFL 2024 Super Wild Card Weekend Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. Well, the regular season is over and 18 teams will now be watching from home or preparing for the next season. The rest will now make their play and go for the ultimate prize of being a Super Bowl Champion. The first week of the playoffs called the Wild Card round will have 12 of those teams make their play for the championship. By week's end six will remain and move on to the Divisional round. In this post, I will do a preview and picks of the six games being played over three days and the broadcast pairings that the networks will put out for the games. Let's get to work!

Super Wild Card Weekend Preview

The Wild Card round will start in Houston, Texas and wrap up in Inglewood, California. The week will feature six games and 12 teams competing. There will be a Saturday afternoon game, a Saturday night game, a Sunday early afternoon game, a Sunday late afternoon game, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. CBS will show two games while ABC, NBC, FOX and Amazon Prime will show one game. Let's get to the picks! 

Super Wild Card Weekend Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern.

LA Chargers @ Houston (CBS; 4:30 pm)

Pick: Chargers

The Chargers beat the Raiders and the Texans beat the Titans last week. The playoffs start again at Houston. Kind of goes to show how much the NFL values the Texans or the AFC South winner instead of it being on a primetime slot. The Chargers got here by getting a wild card spot and going on a 11-6 record. It is their first playoff appearance since 2022 and the first in Jim Harbaugh's career in LA. The offense has done better by going more of a balanced offense instead of Justin Herbert throwing the ball 40-50 times a game. They have some physicality with running the football with JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The emergence of Ladd McConkey as a pass catcher has added more of a weapon to a team that's offense is good on the passing game. On defense, the Chargers went for more of an improvement as last year they were the 24th scoring defense to 1st only allowing 17.7 points/game while having the 8th best passing defense allowing 221.3 yards/game from the air. Joey Bosa is a game changer and having Derwin James will make quarterbacks hesitate from throwing the ball to him.

Houston has been in a normal spot for the playoffs. The first game of the playoffs seem to always start in Houston. The game itself will be an intriguing one. The offense of Houston's has been more of a run power game with Joe Mixon being the starter. They might've found a solid piece to run the ball with in Dameon Pierce who rushed for a 92-yard touchdown last week. CJ Stroud has led the passing attack but has been somewhat of a diminished quarterback in his sophomore season. With 3,727 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions Stroud has good numbers but it feels something is off with him. On defense, the Texans are ranked 6th in total defense with 7th ranked passing defense and 11th rushing defense. The Texans defense has some really good pieces on the defensive front with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. They can ravage defenses and are ranked 2nd with 19 interceptions. I think the key to this one is to really wear the Chargers defense out early and get the ball to your pass catchers and have them make a play for the ball. I still think the Texans are the weakest of the AFC division winners but I think they'll do alright. Just not alright enough to get a win.

All-time series: Chargers lead 6-3; 1st postseason meeting.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (Amazon; 8:00 pm)

Pick: Ravens

The Steelers lost to the Bengals and the Ravens beat the Browns last week. Two familiar foes go at it in Saturday night primetime. The Steelers come into this game with a four-game losing streak, with one of those losses coming from these same Ravens. Part of the reason is that the offense has come apart at the seams. It feels like something is wrong with Russell Wilson or there is some issue that we aren't aware of. With 11 games started he has thrown 2,482 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has also been sacked 33 times so that might be a reason as well. For this game, they might need to rely more on their run game to help take the pressure off of Wilson. They do have a tandem of running backs with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to push forward. They're going to need them as the playoffs is more of physicality and trying to control the line of scrimmage. When it gets cold out and the passing game gets lessened as the football goes lesser distance in the cold air, a running game would be a useful tool.

Baltimore comes into this game clinching the AFC North for the 2nd straight season. They will face off against a familiar foe as both teams will meet for the 3rd time this season. The season series is split with the Steelers winning at their home and the Ravens winning at their home. The key for the Ravens is getting Derrick Henry going early and often and get him holes. I view Derrick Henry more of an inside runner than an outside one. Though he is dangerous either way and most defensive players will feel like hitting a brick wall tackling him. I think the goal is to get at least 20 carries and 100 yards rushing for him. If the Ravens can do that they should have a good shot to win. It sort of felt like an exorcism of demons in the last meeting for Lamar Jackson in beating Pittsburgh. History wise, the Steelers had dominated the series with Jackson as well as the all-time postseason series. Baltimore won the last meeting in January 2015. Sadly Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in the playoffs but hopefully with a sidekick he might finally get over the hump. The Ravens defense will need to make Russell Wilson try to beat you as he lately hasn't been playing or throwing well. Might have to let the running game get active as well. I would also note that George Pickens wasn't in the last matchup. Have to keep an eye on him as well. I think the Ravens take it. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 36-26; 5th postseason meeting (Steelers lead 3-1)

Denver @ Buffalo (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Broncos beat the Chiefs and the Bills lost to the Patriots last week. The Broncos finally got the postseason drought monkey off their back. They are back in the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50. Bo Nix has brought stability at the quarterback spot and that's what had been lacking since winning the Super Bowl. The offense has been more of a passing orientated game with a few run plays here and there. Their highest leading rusher is Javonte Williams with 513 rush yards. Bo Nix has 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and had almost 4,000 yards passing. The go-to guy has been Cortland Sutton with eight of those 29 passing touchdowns. I wished Denver would go more of a run game and establish it but they haven't had to really rely on it. Defensively, the Broncos have a solid defense especially in the defense's front seven. They lead the NFL in sacks with 63 sacks. The Bills will have their hands full in containing Zach Allen and have their offensive line schemes set in containing Nik Bonitto who has 13.5 sacks this season.

Buffalo seems to be the sexy pick in the AFC in terms of teams that aren't the Chiefs in winning it all. At some point they have to take it to the house and get a championship. At some point it has to be put up or shut up. They have to realize that they need to be ready when their time comes and focus and have fun. Offensively it all starts with Josh Allen. My pick for the MVP has 3,731 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions while scoring 12 rushing touchdowns. I personally think he is the most valuable person on this team. The rest of the team hasn't played up to the potential of Allen's. I think the defense will need to step up as well as special teams. Special teams in terms of hitting field goals through the goalposts. James Cook has been a good complement to Allen in the running game and being a pass catcher. I hope he will be used a fair bit in this game. On defense, the Bills aren't quite as solid but they are more of a bend don't break defense that has dealt with a fair bit of injuries to their secondary. Playoff experience might be an advantage for the Bills but they need to be composed and try to relax and play their game. I'll take Buffalo.

All-time series: Bills lead 23-17-1; 2nd postseason meeting (Bills lead 1-0)

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (FOX; 4:30 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Packers lost to the Bears and the Eagles beat the Giants last week. A rematch of a Week 1 game in Brazil. Green Bay has gotten to this point with a 11-6 record and playing 3rd wheel to the Lions and Vikings in the tough NFC North. The road to get to a Super Bowl will have them go up against arguably the best team in the NFC in Philadelphia. The Packers have done it with a solid season from Jordan Love. Love was injured a bit in the loss to Chicago but according to head coach Matt LaFleur he is ready to go and willing for this game. If he isn't then it falls on Malik Willis to provide offense to the Packers. Josh Jacobs has been a solid replacement to Aaron Jones as Jacobs has 1,329 rushing yards and has scored 15 touchdowns. The receiving corp has been a good one but I fear the loss of Christian Watson to a torn ACL injury will put things in doubt for the Packers. On defense, the Packers put forth a good unit as they are 5th in total defense and have a 7th best rushing defense. They will need to contain or slow Saquon Barkley down to get a chance to win this. The more carries that result in 1st downs, the harder it will be to win this game.

Philadelphia has been one of the better teams in the National Football Conference. The Eagles have really done it with probably the best running back in the league with Saquon Barkley who has 2,005 rushing yards, becoming the 9th running back in NFL history to achieve the 2,000 yard club. The Eagles have a good passing offense as well as Jalen Hurts has been a better passer this season than last season. His weapons have also been solid as well with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. That Barkley person as a pass catcher isn't bad either. The defense of Philly's is a tough one to crack as they are ranked 1st in total defense only allowing 278.4 yards/game on average. They have the 2nd ranked pass defense and 10th ranked rushing defense. I question the health of Jalen Hurts who hasn't played since Week 16 due to a concussion. I think the talent gap is lessened if Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee starts as I think that Jalen Hurts provides offense with his arm and legs and I don't know how well the other two can do in this one. Suffice to say, I think the Eagles will win this from Saquon Barkley running through holes and the defense putting a stomp on the Packers.

All-time series: Packers lead 28-19; 4th postseason meeting (Eagles lead 2-1)

Washington @ Tampa Bay (NBC; 8:00 pm)

Pick: Commanders

Washington is having a great season. They were at one point last season at a 4-13 record. They changed it to 12-5 this season to have a 8-game swing. Easily the best turnaround this season. The offense has largely been the thing that has gotten the Commanders over the hump. This season they are ranked 5th in points scored with 485 points or 28.5 points/game, compared to just 329 points or 19.4 points/game. Washington has embraced the running game with the 3rd best rushing offense getting 154.1 yards/game. That's wild. The plethora of running backs at head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's arsenal is quite impressive. The passing game isn't bad but it isn't great either. Jayden Daniels the passer has 3,568 with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. It should be noted that they played Tampa in Week 1 and lost. Safe to say that the Commanders have their identity and certainly have momentum on their side. I think this game will have a different outcome or at least a closer outcome than the Week 1 37-20 Buccaneers victory. Defensively it is something that will have to be addressed in the offseason as I think they are a pass rusher away from really being one of the better defenses. Someone that can create turnovers can be useful as well as they have just seven interceptions.

Tampa Bay won the NFC South and they have the 3rd seed locked up. The offense is quite good with Baker Mayfield proving to us yet again that the Browns are the problem. Mayfield has 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His offense is ranked 4th in the NFL with 29.5 points/game or 502 total points. The defense is ranked 16th allowing 385 total points or 22.6 points/game. They will need to play better in this game. Tampa is ranked 4th in rush defense allowing 97.8 rushing yards per game. Something is going to have to give. Might have to make note that the Buccaneers are ranked 30th in passing defense. Last week, the Buccaneers kind of got off to a slow start on offense but would start to pick things up in the 2nd half. I question how much of a slow start will the Buccaneers have in this one. I think the losing team in the first game has an advantage in the rematch of the 2nd game. It doesn't always happen but this game has to be played out differently than the 37-20 win the Buccaneers played against these same Commanders in Week 1. I'll Take Washington.

All-time series: Series tied 13-13; 4th postseason meeting (Bucs lead 2-1)

Minnesota @ LA Rams (ABC/ESPN; 8:00 pm)

Pick: Rams

The Vikings lost to the Lions and the Rams lost to the Seahawks last week. A form amount of disrespect has been on the Vikings for most of the season. They were probably expected to win at least 6-7 games but they proved the doubters wrong with 14 games won, falling just one win short of a #1 seed in the NFC. The Vikings have done it with a offense that is good with the pass. Sam Darnold has proven that any situation is probably better than being with the Jets or Panthers. Having an offensive mind in head coach Kevin O'Connell will do that to you. Sam Darnold will need to rebound after having his worst game of the season last week against Detroit. It was the sort of game that made you think he reverted back to his old ways as a Jet or something. I'm not sure how well Minnesota can do against the Rams. The game will be in Glendale, Arizona and not in Inglewood as the Los Angeles wildfires are ongoing. At least it will be on a neutral site. Last time these two met the Rams weren't at full strength and they still won against Minnesota. I'm not sure how well they can handle the fact that Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford will be at full health and rested for this one. At least Kevin O'Connell seems to think that his team will face the Lions next week to give that bit of confidence.

The Rams won the NFC West and didn't have much to play for last week against Seattle. The offense went into a bit of a 2nd string offense as their main players Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sat and recuperated in time for the playoffs. The Rams running game isn't too shabby either as Kyren Williams has 1,299 rushing yards and has 14 touchdowns rushing. Matthew Stafford has had a good season with 3,762 yards passing with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A bit low for the touchdown count but still quite good. The game will not be in Inglewood as the Los Angeles wildfires are ongoing. The game might mean a bit more for their fans as they battle against mother nature. At least give them some chance to take their minds away from the tragedy and see their team play. I think the game will depend on how well the defense can handle Sam Darnold. Will they make him uncomfortable as he was somewhat exposed a bit against the Lions. He was rushed, hurried and sacked at times. With Darnold feeling the heat, the offense of the Vikings fell apart. The game will depend on if Sam Darnold will be able to handle the playoff pressure and what version we'll see of him. I think the Rams have a bit more experience with these games and I'll take them in this one.

All-time series: Vikings lead 27-19-2; 8th postseason meeting (Vikings lead 5-2)

TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: All games are national games, meaning the nation will be able to see them. Given you have the channel that the game is on.

LA Chargers @ Houston

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit

Denver @ Buffalo

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

Washington @ Tampa Bay

Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth

Minnesota @ LA Rams

Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Monday night game for the Super Wild Card Weekend Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom