NFL 2024 Week 4 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The regular season is 17% complete and with it there is no defined team that stands out in the pack. The games that I'm keeping an eye on this week is the Cowboys-Giants, Broncos-Jets, Vikings-Packers, Chiefs-Chargers and Seahawks-Lions.

Week 4 Preview

The fourth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in East Rutherford, New Jersey and wrap up in Detroit, Michigan. The week features a 16-game slate where all 32 teams will play. There will be a Thursday night game, eight early games four late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. For matchups, there will be five division matchups, two AFC-NFC matchups, five AFC matchups and four NFC matchups. CBS will have the doubleheader and FOX will carry the single, regional game. No teams are on a bye this week. Let's get to the picks!

Week 4 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me 

Dallas (1-2) @ NY Giants (1-2) (Amazon; 8:15 pm): TW: Cowboys

The Cowboys lost to the Ravens and the Giants beat the Browns last week. Dallas has been in a roller coaster of a start to the season. They won handily against the Browns, lost badly against the Saints and almost beat the Ravens. Despite this, I think they should be able to handle the Giants at least by 10 points. New York finally got off the skid and Daniel Jones threw a lot of passes to rookie Malik Nabers. For once, the Giants didn't turn the ball over. The win against Cleveland wasn't without mistakes. One such mistake was on the opening kickoff where the G-men fumbled and lead to a Browns score. They found a way to win and got a win. Had the Giants lost, I think the game against Dallas would be a bit of a lopside one. Maybe the Giants make this one a bit of an interesting one. 

All-time series: Cowboys lead 75-47-2

Denver (1-2) @ NY Jets (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Jets

The Broncos and Jets won last week as the Broncos beat the Buccaneers and the Jets beat the Patriots. Denver finally found a way to win last week and upset the previously undefeated Buccaneers. They did it with a gameplan that was safe for rookie Bo Nix to go to. The throws he made were nice and easy with a sprinkle of deep throws. The test this week is can they repeat the same success against one of the toughest defenses in the league. The Jets showed the world that they can compete and win big. The Jets really took over and never let up against New England. The defense really shut them down and let the offense do its job and Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self. I think the matchup for this game is the Broncos offense and the Jets defense. The game will be the first time that Aaron Rodgers plays against Sean Payton. Payton last year made comments regarding how the previous head coach did a poor job in Denver. The previous head coach being Nathaniel Hackett. 

All-time series: Broncos lead 22-18-1

Cincinnati (0-3) @ Carolina (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Bengals

The Bengals lost to the Commanders and the Panthers beat the Raiders last week. Cincinnati had a chance to win last week against Washington. Their defense really couldn't stop the Commanders offense and even let rookie Jayden Daniels only have two incompletions in that game. They could have a great game on offense where Joe Burrow can get three touchdown passes but still lose. Defense needs to play better for sure. Carolina looked lost with Bryce Young at the helm. Needing a change to boost offense and to save their season, the Panthers brass choose Andy Dalton for that boost. The Red Rifle didn't disappoint. The Panthers scored 36 points and lead to a road win, a first for Carolina since 2022. Uffdah. I also realize that Andy Dalton was drafted by Cincy so there's that. If the Bengals want to get back into playing well to get to a playoff spot, they need to win this game. Like all hands on deck sort of ordeal. I'll take the Bengals.

All-time series: Series tied 3-3-1

Jacksonville (0-3) @ Houston (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Texans

The Jaguars lost to the Bills and the Texans lost to the Vikings last week. Jacksonville has been on a skid since last year by at least since last November. Their offense just looks off and Trevor Lawrence just looks lost. It's weird even that Doug Pederson was picked to be the person that would fix him. The first season together looked like that when they won a playoff game. It doesn't make sense. Houston fell back to earth against Minnesota. CJ Stroud looked mortal and saw ghosts. Ghosts that were wearing Purple uniforms that caught interceptions from Stroud. The Texans should be able to win this one but if turnovers are like the ones last week, might be seeing the Jaguars get win #1. 

All-time series: Texans lead 29-15

LA Rams (1-2) @ Chicago (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Rams

The Rams beat the 49ers and the Bears lost to the Colts last week. A duel between the veteran Matthew Stafford and the rookie Caleb Williams. The Rams got a big win against rival San Francisco. They never gave up and came back from not one but two 14-point deficits. The Rams have a special back in Kyren Williams who might be a big factor for them winning this game. Chicago has had its ups and downs in this young season. The book is still out on Caleb Williams but he did get his first two touchdowns in his career last week. The Bears key will be stopping on defense and giving their offense a chance. Despite the turnovers, the Bears offense is starting to look up a bit. The Rams defense isn't quite as good as they have been so there might be some hope. I still like the Rams as experience would say otherwise. 

All-time series: Bears lead 54-39-3

Minnesota (3-0) @ Green Bay (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Vikings

The two teams won last week as the Vikings beat the Texans and the Packers beat the Titans. A rivalry renews as a new chapter begins. Minnesota has been impressive so far with no Kirk Cousins throwing footballs. They've done it with Sam Darnold having a career renaissance. Of course it helps when Justin Jefferson catches footballs and goes a long way with that football. Sometimes for six points. The defense has been the most improved part for Minnesota's success. Green Bay has been holding steady through the storm that is without quarterback Jordan Love. Malik Willis has been playing steady football for them and at times playing well. The defense as well has been playing superb as well. I think the Vikings have been the most impressive team between the two. I'll take the Vikings. 

All-time series: Packers lead 66-58-3

New Orleans (2-1) @ Atlanta (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Saints

The Saints lost to the Eagles and the Falcons lost to the Chiefs last week. The rivalry renewed. Derek Carr and the Saints had a bit of a struggle to score points last week against Philly. Prior to that game the Saints were the highest scoring offense in the NFL and then they were held to 12 points last week. Derek Carr was off by a bit and Alvin Kamara was held to under 50 yards. Atlanta had its struggle against Kansas City but had a chance to win last week. Thus sending the Chiefs to undefeated 3-0. The Falcons offense is much better at passing offense with the addition of Kirk Cousins. Atlanta's running back tandem of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson is a help as well. It feels a bit of a toss-up matchup as both teams are quite similar. I'll take the Saints based on past performances on offense. 

All-time series: Series tied 55-55

Philadelphia (2-1) @ Tampa Bay (2-1) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Eagles

The Eagles beat the Saints and the Buccaneers lost to the Broncos last week. Philadelphia had a bit of a skid against Atlanta two weeks ago. While they didn't blow out New Orleans, they did keep the highest scoring offense in the NFL to 12 points. The defense prevailed and really knocked the Saints out of tune. Saquon Barkley rebounded after a dropped pass that would've lead to a score against Atlanta as he scored two touchdowns and carried the Eagles to victory. Tampa looked really good the first two weeks of the season. Then the Broncos came into sweltering Raymond James Stadium and really knocked them around. Baker Mayfield looked mortal. The run defense kind of got smacked around as well as all the scoring that Denver did was by the run. Not also to mention that field goals helped Denver as well. It's kind of a toss-up game but I'm leaning more towards the Eagles. 

All-time series: Buccaneers lead series 12-11

Pittsburgh (3-0) @ Indianapolis (1-2) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Steelers

The Steelers beat the Chargers and the Colts beat the Bears last week. Pittsburgh has looked solid on offense. They may have found their quarterback. Justin Fields wasn't throwing darts but he was being a game manager. The offense realizes that if they put up 17 to 20 points, their defense will take care of business and hold opponents to 10 points. They're not quite the 1970's Steelers or the Super Bowl winning teams in the 2000's but they're quite unique. Indianapolis got on the winning column last week. Granted by a five point margin against Chicago. The Anthony Richardson experiment is I feel is more of a C- on the grading scale. That might be putting it lightly. The running game really bailed the Colts out last week. Jonathan Taylor had a great game. The Colts passing game will need to really put up solid drives and keep the Steelers defense on the field as much as possible. Knowing where TJ Watt is at all times will be key. If he causes havoc early, then I think the Steelers will take it. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 27-7

Washington (2-1) @ Arizona (1-2) (FOX; 4:05 pm): TW: Cardinals

The Commanders beat the Bengals and the Cardinals lost to the Lions last week. Washington saw a good game from their offense last week. Jayden Daniels only had two incompletions last week against Cincinnati. The Bengals defense isn't no slouch either despite giving up 38 points to Washington. The running game had a good game as well. If they can stay the course they should be good to go against Arizona as their defense isn't as good. The Cardinals offense really looked pedestrian against the Lions. The Lions defense is very solid. I feel this game will be a shootout if anything. I do find the Cardinals offense is a bit better than the Commanders I think. The sample size for Daniels as a passer is small as he only has two touchdowns so far. It's a real toss-up but I'll go with the Cardinals. 

All-time series: Commanders lead 77-47-2

New England (1-2) @ San Francisco (1-2) (FOX; 4:05 pm): TW: 49ers

The Patriots lost to the Jets and the 49ers lost to the Rams last week. The Pats are in a bit of a bind. Their offense is mostly based on running the ball. Thus becoming a one-dimensional team. The reason why is that their pass blocking is non-existent. One such example is that if you're a linebacker you get a hole so big that you get a free pass to hug the quarterback. It's pretty bad. Checkdowns and screens are the only way to get the ball out of the quarterback's hands. San Francisco is currently experiencing a two-game losing streak since blowing out the Jets on Monday night in Week 1. The losing streak is an effect of their injuries. The biggest one is Christian McCaffrey. The depth for the star running back has been astounding. Jordan Mason has helped out a lot and took advantage of the opportunity. I hate to say it but if the 49ers were down to a 2nd string team, I think the Patriots will still lose. I'll take the 49ers. 

All-time series: 49ers lead 9-5

Cleveland (1-2) @ Las Vegas (1-2) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Raiders

The Browns lost to the Giants and the Raiders lost to the Panthers last week. Cleveland had a bit of a letdown last week. They had a good start to the game against New York via a turnover on a kickoff and scoring a touchdown on the next play. The offense is a bit hurt but help should eventually come to the Brownies. DeShaun Watson's season has been meager. He hasn't thrown an interception since throwing two in Week 1. He has been more of a game manager at least in a way. The defense is really good so they can't be all that bad. Las Vegas has been a roller coaster of a season so far. The season had a drubbing by the Chargers, an upset against Baltimore and a blowout against Carolina who had the Red Rifle manhandle the Raiders defense. The Raiders I think have been dealing with an adjustment to Gardner Minshew at quarterback and a new plethora of running backs for them to utilize. The wide receiving corp has stayed the same. I think the loss to Carolina was a bit of a wake up call to the Raiders, I'll take them in a safe bet. 

All-time series: Raiders lead 17-10

Kansas City (3-0) @ LA Chargers (2-1) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Chiefs

The Chiefs beat the Falcons and the Chargers lost to the Steelers last week. Kansas City played a tough game against Atlanta. Their offense didn't quite look that great but they did score more points than the other team. A lot of controversy over the lack of production from Travis Kelce so far. The tight end has just eight catches for 69 yards (heheh nice). He's still under contract so I would eventually assume that he will get going. It'd be nice for the Chiefs to increase the rushing numbers a bit but Isiah Pacheco is out for a bit due to injury. Los Angeles has had a good start so far. Then the injury to Justin Herbert happened. After he left the game, the Chargers were helpless. The assumption is that Herbert won't play in this game and Taylor Heinicke will go. The sample size is very small for the folk hero Heinicke. He has some experience in playing some big games however. The Chargers will need to rediscover the running game from JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. If Taylor Heinicke can keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, then they might have a shot to win. 

All-time series: Chiefs lead 69-58-1

Buffalo (3-0) @ Baltimore (1-2) (NBC; 8:20 pm): TW: Ravens

The Bills beat the Jaguars and the Ravens beat the Cowboys last week. Buffalo is now the highest scoring offense in the league right now. They have maintained an average of 37.3 points/game. They've done it with MVP numbers for Josh Allen who has nine total touchdowns. Of course the rest of the team has four touchdowns. James Cook is taking on a bigger role of the offense. Khalil Shakir has been a solid contributor to the wide receiver corp. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have the highest average total offensive yardage with 430.3 yards/game. That's insane. The record would make you think that the Ravens are a run of the mill team. They have had some struggles in terms of closing games, such as the Raiders game and nearly blowing a 28-6 lead to Dallas. 

All-time series: Ravens lead 6-5

Tennessee (0-3) @ Miami (1-2) (ESPN; 7:30 pm): TW: Titans

The Titans lost to the Packers and the Dolphins lost to the Seahawks. Tennessee is sadly what their record shows. They haven't gotten a win so far this season. Turnovers have been the name of the game for them on offense this season. Will Levis needs to cut down on the turnovers. Levis has a decent group of wide receivers to throw to but it ain't going to be successful if he can't get the ball to them. Pass protection has also been a factor to the winless Titans. Miami has looked lost without Tua Tagovailoa. He was out last week due to a concussion he suffered in Week 2 against Buffalo. Skylar Thompson didn't do a whole lot to help the Dolphins win last week against Seattle. The run offense didn't help out either. They also need to get more production on offense obviously. If Tua actually gets to play in this game, they need to allow him to wear a bubble wrap around his uniform. I'll take the Titans in a risky bet. 

All-time series: Dolphins lead 21-19

Seattle (3-0) @ Detroit (2-1) (ABC; 8:15 pm): TW: Lions

The Seahawks beat the Dolphins and the Lions beat the Cardinals last week. The other Monday night game features an interesting matchup. Both teams are well known to each other in the regular season. As of recently the Seahawks have had the upper hand over the Lions. The Seahawks have an undefeated record but their record is a bit suspect. They beat a Denver team still finding themselves, beat a Patriots team that got blown out last week and whooped a Dolphins team without Tua. As much as I want to think that the Seahawks are legit, I just don't trust them as much as I would want to. It feels more like a step on the brakes a bit on Seattle. Despite this, I do think their offense is very balanced and I like Geno Smith not being a gun slinger. He has an offense that can back him up. The Lions have had some wrinkles along the way. Their offense hasn't yet have a dominating effort. Jared Goff hasn't had a game where he hasn't thrown an interception and has had one game where he threw over 300 yards. It is weird for him to play hero ball. The Lions defense has really kept them at a 2-1 record. I just keep waiting on the Lions to finally blossom. Maybe this game will be the one where it'll make the rest of the league fear the kitty. 

All-time series: Seahawks lead 13-5

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

Denver @ NY Jets
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Minnesota @ Green Bay
Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Jacksonville @ Houston

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

CBS Late

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Cleveland @ Las Vegas

Beth Mowins, Ross Tucker, Jay Feely

FOX Single 

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

LA Rams @ Chicago

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

Cincinnati @ Carolina

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston

New England @ San Francisco (Late)

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

Washington @ Arizona (Late)

Chris Myers, Mark Schlereth

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024 Week 4 Maps

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Total: 34-14

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 4 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom

NFL 2024 Preseason Predictions + Playoff/Super Bowl/Awards Predictions

 Hello readers! As of writing this piece, the regular season is just two weeks away. Indeed, the Baltimore Ravens will take on the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on September 5th. It'll be here before you know it or even hit you. In this post, I will do my predictions on where the 32 teams will end up by the time the regular season is said and done. Next, I will do the playoff and Super Bowl prediction. Lastly, I will do a prediction on who will win the awards as well as who will lead the league in certain categories. Let's get to work!

Disclaimer and Preseason Predictions

I feel a disclaimer is in order. I do not work for the National Football League nor its television partners or for a particular news organization. All of this is purely my opinion and I am not getting paid whatsoever for these predictions and picks. If I get anything right it is purely my opinion and luck. If I get something wrong then I guess oh well. Anyway, let's get to the Preseason predictions. 

Let's start with the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1st in AFC East): A lot happened in the offseason as Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs to Houston for some futures. Josh Allen will need to do more with less but they still have James Cook to help him out with a crew of weapons in Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Khalil Shakir from the draft as well. With the pressure on the offense, the defense will need to step up just as much. Pass Rush needs to find a way to get it going. Suffice to say, until proven otherwise, the Bills are still my class of the AFC East. 

Miami Dolphins (2nd in AFC East): Miami made the playoffs last season on the front of a stellar offense lead by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. The running game should be a bit better if not as great as 2023. The big question will be the defense. Giving up Christian Wilkins to free agency might cost the Dolphins some wins. Injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will pit the shoulders of the offense to keep up with the AFC East race. I think they have more than enough talent to get to 2nd and win the wild card. 

New York Jets (3rd in AFC East): The Jets season last year ended in less than five minutes as Aaron Rodgers suffered an Achilles injury. After that first game, the Jets were put into a tailspin of mediocrity and misery. Hopefully Rodgers will be able to last a few more minutes this season than last one. He will need to in order to take advantage of the talent of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense should be a underrated aspect of this team should the quarterback suffers another injury. I think the Jets have the capabilities to earn a playoff spot but I'm not sure. 

New England Patriots (4th in AFC East): For the first time since Week 16 of the 1999 season, there won't be a head coach named Bill Belichick patrolling the sidelines. Hoodie and sweatpants and all. Taking over for the legend is Jerod Mayo, a former understudy of Belichick's who earned the opportunity of a lifetime. The former linebacker will have his work cut out for him as the Patriots aren't likely going to be good. The passing game is lacking a bit on weapons. If the combo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson can get things going on the ground, they could be a good group. Defensively, the Pats will still have a solid group with a defensive-minded head coach roaming the sidelines. 

With the return of Aaron Rodgers, the AFC East could possibly be a 3-team race to the top. Other than the Patriots and Bills, no other team has won the AFC East since 2009. Miami might be the sexy pick for them to take the top spot but their offense will need to step up big. 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (1st in AFC North): Baltimore fell short of reaching the Super Bowl and this group looks like to be the group to possibly overthrow the Chiefs in the AFC. Lamar Jackson looks to be the driver's seat in a great offense that got the free agency prize in Derrick Henry. The weapons should be good as well. Defensively the Ravens will get a new coordinator in Zach Orr who should maintain the same system but the losses of Patrick Queen and Geno Stone to free agency will pit the defense in a bind. Should be a group that gets far in the AFC North and well into 2024. 

Cincinnati Bengals (2nd in AFC North): Cincy faltered down the stretch in 2023. The biggest reason was that Joe Burrow's health was an issue as he was out for the rest of the season. Without a solid line, the Bengals are one Burrow injury from falling off the cliff again. The group around him will be good and young as Zack Moss and Chase Brown will take the reins for the ground game. Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a contract holdout but Tee Higgins is ready to go. Defensively, the Bengals were awful on defense. Getting Geno Stone from Baltimore via free agency will help them out a bit. I think the Bengals will have a group that can challenge the Ravens but should be playing for a wild card spot. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (3rd in AFC North): Gone is Kenny Pickett and coming in is Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. The upgrade at quarterback will be good for the Steelers offense as they were lacking a bit. The running game should be good as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will tag team opposing defenses. The wide receiver group will be a mix as George Pickens will likely play for time as the #1 wide receiver. There was talk of Brandon Aiyuk wanting to become a Steeler but as of writing this, he's still a member of the Red & Gold. Defensively, the Steelers still have a group that can help keep them in games. With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Steelers offense could be a more physical offense with an improvement over Matt Canada who the Yinzers wanted gone for quite a while. I think the Steelers could be a dark horse candidate team. 

Cleveland Browns (4th in AFC North): The Brownies made the playoffs last year on the shoulders of quarterback Joe Flacco. The former Raven took them to the playoffs and could only reach the Wild Card round against Houston. Gone is him and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt who moved to take over the struggling offense in New England. With the big contract that was given to DeShaun Watson, the Brownies will have to play him again and hope he stays healthy. The defense could be a bit of a oddity but they do have Jim Schwartz running things while Kevin Stefanski runs the offense. The run game, their bread and butter, will be a bit shaky as Nick Chubb could be the one that will have to carry the team. At least they added a weapon in Jerry Jeudy. I think the Browns will fall back to a position that their fans are used to at this point, dead last. 

Last year's iteration of the AFC North saw all four teams with a winning record for the first time in the Post-Merger era. This year's version will likely not see that as I think at least one team having more losses than wins. The Ravens-Bengals race to the top could be intriguing down the stretch. Pittsburgh is possibly my dark horse pick to make noise in the AFC North. Cleveland will Cleveland their way through 2024.

AFC South

Houston Texans (1st in AFC South): The Texans were a big surprise in 2023 as the division winner and even won a playoff game. Some caution to the wind could be in order here as C.J. Stroud could be entering the Sophomore jinx. Despite this, the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs to help complement Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On defense they picked up Danielle Hunter from the Vikings to help the pass rush. I like the Texans but as a serious title contenders would be a bit of a high step. 

Indianapolis Colts (2nd in AFC South): The Colts faltered a bit on the early going. Anthony Richardson (yeah kind of forgot about that guy) is back for year two in his career. The jury is still out on whether or not the quarterback can be a versatile quarterback and lead a team to a playoff spot. Outside of Richardson, the Colts added Michael Pittman and drafted AD Mitchell. Josh Downs could be a fun option at tight end. Defense could be a bit of a question mark. I think they could have a 9-8 season at best. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3rd in AFC South): Around this time last year, the Jaguars were a hot pick to possibly be a Super Bowl contender and a team that could threaten the Chiefs dominance in the AFC. This year seems just like a miserable sad story. It could be that the Jaguars were 8-3 at one point last year and then finished with a 9-8 record and missed the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence got paid and then will have to work more with less. On defense, the Jags put a lot of capital to rebuild that unit. It will be Ryan Nielsen, defensive coordinator, who will have to help keep the Jaguars in games. It coulb e be a trying year for Jacksonville. 

Tennessee Titans (4th in AFC South): Out is Mike Vrabel and in is Brian Callahan. DeAndre Hopkins will have some time to recuperate from injury as he won't be back until possibly October. Calvin Ridley will help bolster a wide receiving corp that needs a bit of help. Will Levis will be the man to help out and carry this team. The running game could be lacking a bit in terms of veteran talent with the loss of Derrick Henry. I don't see a whole lot of noise coming from the Music City but I don't think they'll be completely awful. 

The AFC South is a bit of an interesting division. The Texans coming out of the pack and challenging the Jaguars was a bit of a surprise. The division will be up for grabs if any of the starting quarterbacks get injured early on in the year. I don't think the division will be the best out of all of the AFC but it is certainly better than past years. 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (1st in AFC West): Big shock I know that two-time defending champions will go for another division championship. The case for the champs is pretty good. The offense should get better and the defense should be just as good. Sure L'Jarius Sneed going away in free agency is going to come back and bite them back a bit. Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will just pick up some random person and turn them into a machine that opposing quarterbacks shake and quiver. Patrick Mahomes will be getting a bit of help as they added Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy in the draft (courtesy of their conference rival Bills). More to come on whether this team can three-peat in the playoff predictions but this team has more than enough talent to win the AFC West. 

Los Angeles Chargers (2nd in AFC West): The Chargers finally got rid of the anchor weighing them down in Brandon Staley and got the complete opposite in Jim Harbaugh. History says that the first year of a Harbaugh coached team will do well. A lot of it depends on Justin Herbert health. Austin Ekeler did move on from LA and it will be up to Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey to get this team's offense to where they need to go. Defense will stay the same as they didn't see movement in that part of the team. I think the Chargers could be a playoff team but if Herbert is injured they will falter down the way. The ceiling is a possible playoff team. 

Denver Broncos (3rd in AFC West): This time last year was full of questions on whether the marriage of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson would last. It didn't take long for the union to reach its breaking point. With Wilson gone to the Steelers, Sean Payton can finally mold this team in his image. Bo Nix could be a solid starter but it will be up to the wide receiver corp to guide this team to where they want to go. Javonte Williams is an underrated running back but his line will need to give them a chance to do something.  Defense is a bit of a worry but that could be something that the Broncos could seek in the draft come next spring. I think the ceiling for them is 8-9 wins. 

Las Vegas Raiders (4th in the AFC West): At this time last year, the Raiders were in another year of Josh McDaniels coaching the team. The guy would last just 25 games going back to 2022. Antonio Pierce would take over and help lead the Raiders to a close winning season. Josh Jacobs left via free agency and I'm not sure if the running game can match the production that the former Raider put up. Zamir White and Alexander Mattison will have to pick up the slack. I like Gardner Minshew for the memes but as a solid starter is a bit of a stretch. The defense could be another average unit but they did add Christian Wilkins from Miami to help with the pass rush with Maxx Crosby. Is it possible that the Raiders make noise in the division? Possibly, but the recent history of the Raiders seems to say otherwise. 

The AFC West does have the defending champions in it and the rest of the division just wishes that they could knock the Chiefs off their perch. All three teams could possibly take the spot as 2nd fiddle to the Chiefs but they won't likely move past them. I keep thinking that the division will be the best but it always lets me down. 

The AFC in general is likely going to be a bloodbath again as the Chiefs are the favorite to win the conference yet again. All the other teams in the conference want to overtake them but will it be enough to do it? More to come on that in a bit later. Let's look at the NFC. 

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (1st in NFC East): Philly at this time last year made it to a Super Bowl. They certainly looked like they would make it back again but then the losses started to come. The Week 12 win over the Buffalo Bills put the Eagles record at 10-1 and looked like they would run away with the NFC East. They would go 1-5 after that game. The Eagles case to making back to a Super Bowl will be intriguing. They added Saquon Barkley and got a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox also retired in the offseason. In their place they put forth Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis. The Eagles case for winning the NFC East is this: no team has not repeated as division champs. I think they have the capabilities to do it. 

Dallas Cowboys (2nd in NFC East): Dallas has both a low floor and a high ceiling. It is typically the case for them. After laying the biggest egg in franchise history in losing to the Packers last year, the seat to Mike McCarthy is starting to get hot. The seat was so hot that the head coach might've gotten shown the door and Bill Belichick to walk right in. The Cowboys will need to get a lot more of Dak Prescott this year while Tony Pollard is gone. In his place is Ezekiel Elliott. Dan Quinn is also gone and in his place is Mike Zimmer. I think the Cowboys still make the playoffs but they falter down the stretch. 

Washington Commanders (3rd in NFC East): Year 2 of the new ownership and boy did they clean house. Gone is Ron Rivera and Dan Quinn is back in the head coaching ranks. The Commanders drafted Jayden Daniels in the draft. The big concern is the offensive line and ensuring that the wide receiving corp can help out the rookie. Austin Ekeler needs to also find a renaissance and maintain the production that he had in the Chargers. Despite the question marks, maybe Washington could be a team that might get lucky and get 8 wins. 

New York Giants (4th in NFC East): The G-Men were on the heels of a renaissance season in 2022 and they fell back to earth in 2023. The reason for the fall was obvious, the offense stunk, Daniel Jones had a regressive year and was injured and there wasn't stability at that position. Tommy DeVito being a meme was kind of fun though. The Giants success will come down to the offensive line and having a rebound year for Daniel Jones. Malik Nabers getting some playtime will be fun. Saquon Barkley leaving the Giants might be a bit of a concern as they don't have the talent at running back to help out the offense. Devin Singletary is a question mark in terms of production. Brian Burns might be a worthy option to getting the pass rush back to prominence. The Giants are a weird team and I don't trust them. I don't see them doing a whole lot. 

Another year another rough year for the NFC East. I think its going to be a race with Philadelphia and Dallas going for the top while the Commanders and Giants being the fodder for the two. Washington might not be the slouch that they were in the past but things are looking up. 

NFC North

Detroit Lions (1st in NFC North): The Lions did what they were expected to do in 2023. Now it is time to see if they can do something that they haven't done in a long time, go to the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. The depth is arguably the best in the NFL. The offense might've gotten better with a year into them gelling together. The defense might get better as well with an improved secondary that practically let opposing wide receivers run rampant. Unless they really fall off a cliff, I don't see the Lions dropping out of 1st place. Let's just hope. 

Green Bay Packers (2nd in NFC North): The Pack were a possible playoff team in 2022 but faltered. In 2023, they looked like a bit more of a faltering team in the 1st half, then they won seven of their last nine games to finish with a 9-8 record and won a playoff game. We shall see if the Packers can get a productive, high octane year from Jordan Love. The weapons that he has seems to suggest that he should do well. The defense might be a bit of a question mark with a new system from Jeff Hafley. The schedule might be a bit of a daunting task as the Pack have to travel to Brazil in Week 1 and then play against a bunch of playoff teams from last year. I think the Pack will come short of 1st. 

Chicago Bears (3rd in NFC North): The hype for the Bears is astounding. Drafting Caleb Williams as the #1 overall pick and then drafting Rome Odunze. The Bears also added Keenan Allen to complement D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet to the pass catching group. I feel the hype is a bit much. The Bears didn't do a whole lot in 2023 as they went 7-10. The defense is still kind of questionable as well. Suffice to say, the offense should get better however. I don't see the Bears being the team that the world expects to see. 

Minnesota Vikings (4th in NFC North): Free Agency, injuries and just plain snakebit on certain players is making things tough for the Purple Gang. Gone is Kirk Cousins and in is Sam Darnold. J.J. McCarthy out for the season will hurt but Darnold is somewhat of a capable starter. I just question on how well he can succeed in the offense. Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler were the prizes of free agency for the Vikes as they will help out fill the hole left by Alexander Mattison and Dalvin Cook. The issue for the Vikings is also whether or not the Bears and Packers can play well. If they do then its a log jam that the Vikings will likely see themselves in the basement. 

The NFC North might actually be the best division in the NFC with talent all around for all four teams. Indeed old school fans would like to see nothing more than a return to the Black and Blue division of the 1970's. 

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st in NFC South): Tampa was somewhat of a surprise team in 2023. Baker Mayfield and the offense really kept the gravy train rolling where Tom Brady left off. Who would've thought that Baker Mayfield would be the successor to the goat. I'm kind of bullish on their defense and if they can keep their offense going they should find success in 2024. It depends on how well Baker Mayfield can keep it going. 

Atlanta Falcons (2nd in NFC South): The Falcons lacked the presence of a quality quarterback last year. They went out and got Kirk Cousins and apparently drafted his successor as well. Kind of a weird move to do that. Despite that, the Falcons offense should find some success on the same production level that they had when Matt Ryan was quarterback. The defense might get better or it could get worse. The shining light is Raheem Morris's ability to get more out of less. It could be a fight between the Falcons and the Buccaneers for the top spot. 

New Orleans Saints (3rd in NFC South):  We weren't sure what to make of the Derek Carr led Saints heading into 2023. Fortunately, they did live up to that expectation. They didn't do a whole lot on offense and the defense didn't make things interesting either. A lot of capital was spent on rebuilding the offensive line. The Saints did also get Chase Young to bolster the defensive line which could be an interesting move. A lot of risk in putting the Saints above anywhere but 3rd but they shouldn't be terrible to be in the basement. 

Carolina Panthers (4th in NFC South): Floor for the Panthers: 3-4 wins. Ceiling for them: 5-6. The Panthers were the worst team in football and they didn't even get the 1st overall pick in this spring's draft. A new year with a new head coach in Dave Canales who is quite the unknown if there ever was one. The offense should find themselves with some help in getting Diontae Johnson and picking Xavier Legette in the draft. The defense will likely stay the same but a tish worse now that Brian Burns is now a Giant. Won't be a successful year in Carolina but hopefully better than last year. 

Not a lot of solid teams for the NFC South. The shift from the Buccaneers and Saints to the Buccaneers and Falcons will make this a division where two teams will fight hard for. The Saints and Panthers will try to knock them down a peg but I don't see the two teams doing a whole lot this year. 

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams (1st in NFC West): The big surprise I think will be a rebound year for the Rams. A risk that I feel will be worth it. The case for it: Matthew Stafford is healthy, the wide receiving corp will get better. The running game will get back to normal I feel with Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson. At least on a physical level. The case against it: Puka Nacua not being 100% throughout the season and Cooper Kupp having more of the same. The offense will need to step up. Aaron Donald retired and Raheem Morris became the head coach in Atlanta. While the Rams can't replace a sure-fire hall of famer in Aaron Donald, they did add Braden Fiske and Jared Verse as a replacement. 

San Francisco 49ers (2nd in NFC West): The 49ers were one score from winning it all in the Super Bowl. The case for them to make it there again is pretty strong. They did resign Brandon Aiyuk despite a long drawn out drama saga that almost felt like a soap opera. Trent Williams is a question mark for the start of the season with a holdout. Christian McCaffrey is a question mark with his health as well. The talent for the 49ers is unquestionably great. The rest of the division will get better and will look to knock the defending NFC champs off their pedestal. The key to a Super Bowl return is of course Brock Purdy. 

Seattle Seahawks (3rd in NFC West): A strange year incoming for Seattle. Pete Carroll is gone in favor of a younger staff. Mike MacDonald will take over as head coach. The book is still out on him but he should have somewhat of a decent roster to work with. Geno Smith will look to improve with a good receiving group with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The running game should get better as well. MacDonald's expertise is defense and he will look to improve a group that finished 25th in points against. A winning season should be expected for the new coach and his group. 

Arizona Cardinals (4th in NFC West): A down year for the Cardinals last year. In year 2 for Jonathan Gannon, he will need to see improvements. One of the improvements that should help right away is Marvin Harrison Jr. as a weapon for Kyler Murray to throw to. The upside for Kyler was that he should be healthy for the season, something that he didn't have at the start of last year. The defense is still a question mark heading to the year but at least fireworks should be prevalent as the offense should put up points on the board. It should be a better year than the 4-13 trainwreck that was 2023 but not quite a playoff year for the Cards. 

The NFC West is possibly the best division in the conference. Two of the last three conference champions were from the division. The Rams-Niners series will be intriguing. A lot of questions still remain. Can the 49ers reach the big game again? Can the Rams finally overcome big brother and dominate the division? How well will Mike MacDonald do in his first year? What is the ceiling for the Cardinals in 2024? So many questions. 

So for the NFC vs AFC debate. I think the power has shifted a bit back to the middle where the AFC and NFC are pretty level. The Chiefs are the likely favorite to do it all again while the Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and Texans hope to knock them off. In the NFC, the 49ers are trying to get back there again while the Packers, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs and Rams hope to be the ones to reach the big game. 

Playoff Predictions

With 4-5 months of carnage that is the regular season finally reduces the amount of teams left from 32 to 14, teams can finally begin to start the 2nd season. Time to expect where the 14 teams stand and who makes it past the massive carnage and reach the ultimate prize. Let's start with the NFC.

Seeding

1st seed: Philadelphia Eagles
2nd seed: Los Angeles Rams
3rd seed: Detroit Lions
4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5th seed: Dallas Cowboys
6th seed: San Francisco 49ers
7th seed: Green Bay Packers

Super Wild Card Weekend

Rams over Packers
Lions over 49ers
Buccaneers over Cowboys

Divisional

Eagles over Buccaneers
Lions over Rams

Conference Championship

Eagles over Lions

Next is the AFC...

Seeding

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs
2nd seed: Baltimore Ravens
3rd seed: Buffalo Bills
4th seed: Houston Texans
5th seed: Cincinnati Bengals
6th seed: Miami Dolphins
7th seed: New York Jets

Super Wild Card Weekend

Ravens over Jets
Bills over Dolphins
Bengals over Texans

Divisional

Chiefs over Bengals
Ravens over Bills

Conference Championship

Ravens over Chiefs

Super Bowl LIX Prediction

Drum roll please...

............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Ravens over Eagles

Yep you saw that correctly. I am predicting that the Chiefs will not three-peat. I repeat WILL NOT THREE-PEAT! I just think that the pressure will be too much on them and that everyone will be playing them a little harder to knock them off their perch. Time for a new champion to arise! 

Awards Predictions

With the preseason and playoff predictions out of the way, time for awards predictions. Here I will predict who will take Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year for the respective offense and defensive players, the Offensive and Defensive players of the year, Most Valuable Player and Comeback Player of the Year. One of my favorite parts of predicting. 

Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Dallas Turner
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson
NFL Most Valuable Player: Josh Allen
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell

Hot Takes

Mike McCarthy will be let go as Cowboys head coach prior to the Super Bowl
Tyreek Hill will achieve 2,000 receiving yards. 
No team(s) will have 14 or more wins
We will have four quarterbacks throw for more than 4,000 yards

Alright. That's all for this post. Expect the Week 1 picks post sometime on Monday or Tuesday (I'm writing this portion on Saturday). With the picks post, the season gets going and the biggest seasons in sports gets underway as the National Football League is back! See you all soon!

-Tom

Rest in Peace Johnny Gaudreau (1993-2024) and Matthew Gaudreau (1994-2024)

NFL 2024 Offseason Thoughts

 Hello readers! Football is around the corner and the preseason is fully underway. With this, it is time to rehash some old storylines and some new ones and my thoughts on these storylines. Such storylines like Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the Free Agency Carousel that transpired over the course of spring and summer of this year. Let's get to work! 

Tom Brady

We hadn't heard a whole lot from the retired, 7-time Super Bowl champion lately. The guy had taken the whole 2023 season off to get prepared to take on the role of Color Commentator for the NFL on FOX with lead Play-by-Play commentator Kevin Burkhardt. The word is still out on how well Tom Brady will do as a commentator but perhaps he can turn out well. Certain players in his caliber of championships hadn't done so well in the realm of television. One person namely was Joe Montana who lasted just a season on NBC before the realm of public opinion said that he's not going to last. One other example is Terry Bradshaw who went on to have a good career as a Color Commentator on CBS during when they had the NFC package and later as a Studio Analyst on FOX. The main ingredient for television is that you have to have a solid personality and you have to help teach the average viewer of what is going on. The average Jane or John Doe won't understand football lingo like I-Right 26 Power (which I looked up, its a run play where the running back runs to the right). They need to be shown that the running back went to the right and this blocker did this and that blocker did that and that's why the play was either a success or a failure. Greg Olson, the person that Tom Brady replaces, will move down to the #2 color commentator for FOX. In my opinion, I do like Olson and his explaining of things football. I hope he does well in his new role. He seems to not mind the demotion to #2 all that much. 

Bill Belichick 

Tom Brady's old head coach Bill Belichick is out of a head coaching job for the first time this century. The head coach agreed to part ways with the New England Patriots this past January. After that, the head coach was thought he would be landing a position as head coach and general manager shortly afterwards. After a few interviews with Atlanta and Washington, Bill was the odd man out. Suffice to say, Washington went with Dan Quinn, the former defensive coordinator with Dallas, and Atlanta went with Raheem Morris, who had worked with the defense with the Rams. I do think that the head coach will get some considerations during the next year's offseason. Some takes that I have is that Bill was asking too much for a team to bring him in. Being both the head coach and general manager might be good for a personnel standpoint (saving money with having two positions for one person) but in the last few years with New England, the personnel decisions by Bill were kind of questionable. The drafting post-Tom Brady was kind of questionable. One such example is drafting injury-prone Cole Strange in the 1st round in the 2022 draft when there was better players to get. The Mac Jones experiment was also a backfire that was partly the blame on Belichick for not giving Mac the tools he needed to succeed in New England. Despite no head coaching gig, the former head coach will get to play a role with the Pat McAfee show where he will be an analyst for the show. Suffice to say, his dating prospects are alright as well as he dates a woman that is a great deal younger than him. 

Free Agency Carousel and some trades

The NFL's Free Agency period is typically a crazy time. This past Free Agency period during the spring of this year was one of the most wildest in recent memory. It seemed like every hour had someone going to a new team for a period of weeks. Here is a reminder of where everyone went to: 

Jacoby Brissett: Washington to New England
Kirk Cousins: Minnesota to Atlanta
Gardner Minshew: Indianapolis to Las Vegas
Russell Wilson: Denver to Pittsburgh
Saquon Barkley: New York Giants to Philadelphia
Austin Ekeler: Los Angeles Chargers to Washington
Ezekiel Elliott: New England to Dallas
Derrick Henry: Tennessee to Baltimore
Josh Jacobs: Las Vegas to Green Bay
Aaron Jones: Green Bay to Minnesota
Zack Moss: Indianapolis to Cincinnati
Tony Pollard: Dallas to Tennessee
Devin Singletary: Houston to New York Giants
D'Andre Swift: Philadelphia to Chicago
Odell Beckham Jr.: Baltimore to Miami
Marquise Brown: Arizona to Kansas City
Gabe Davis: Buffalo to Jacksonville
Calvin Ridley: Jacksonville to Tennessee
Mike Williams: Los Angeles Chargers to New York Jets
Zach Ertz: Detroit to Washington
Gerald Everett: Los Angeles Chargers to Chicago
Jonnu Smith: Atlanta to Miami

This list is just for the offense alone. There is a lot of movement for defense. Such names like Christian Wilkins going from Miami to Las Vegas and Chase Young going from San Francisco to New Orleans. Bobby Wagner also got another team to go to as he went to Washington from Seattle. Stephon Gilmore went to Minnesota from Dallas. 

For the trade front, it was a bit interesting. The first big news was Mac Jones going to Jacksonville for a 6th round pick. Also that happened on March 13th was that Joe Mixon, Brian Burns, Diontae Johnson, Carlton Davis, Morgan Moses went to different teams in exchange for draft selections. The lone exception for that was Diontae Johnson going to Carolina for Donte Jackson and a 6th round selection. On April 3rd, the Bills traded to Stefon Diggs and a 6th round pick and a 5th round selection to Houston for a 2025 2nd round selection. Kind of a weird trade for the Bills to make as they gave up a bit of draft capital just to get a 2nd round selection for next year. The Bills did pick up Marquez Valdes-Scantling from Kansas City but kind of a mixed offseason for the Bills. 

Anyways, that's all for my thoughts on the offseason. The 2024 Preseason and Awards Predictions post will be coming up fairly soon. Once that post is posted, the Week 1 Picks post will happen shortly before Opening Night on Thursday, September 5th. Until then, see you soon folks! 

-Tom