Saturday, December 30, 2017

NFL Week 17 Picks

Hello Readers! The final week of the regular season is upon us! Bringing with much intriguing matchups and a look ahead into next week's start of the playoffs. The blog will feature all the regular stuff as well as which head coaches could be seeing a spot in the unemployment line come January 1st.

The playoff picture going into last week was still hazy but with the Seahawks win over the Cowboys, Big D will be watching the playoffs at home after a disappointing season. The Rams win over the Titans last week gave them the NFC West division crown. The first time since 2003 since they were the St. Louis Rams (sorry St. Louis) and 1985 when they were the Los Angeles Rams. Here's a look at the playoff picture at the moment:

AFC:

#1: Patriots (12-3)
#2: Steelers (12-3)
#3: Jaguars (10-5)
#4: Chiefs (9-6)
#5: Ravens (9-6)
#6: Titans (8-7)

Wild card:
Titans @ Jaguars
Ravens @ Chiefs

In the hunt:
LA Chargers (8-7), Buffalo (8-7)

Eliminated:
Every other team not mentioned

NFC:

#1: Eagles (13-2)
#2: Vikings (12-3)
#3: Rams (11-4)
#4: Saints (11-4)
#5: Panthers (11-4)
#6: Falcons (9-6)

In the hunt:
Seattle (9-6)

Eliminated:
Every other team mentioned.

The playoff picture boils down to this: In order for Buffalo to get in they would need to win, and the Chargers + Titans to lose. Chargers beat the Bills earlier in the season so they would be ahead of the Bills due to head-to-head record. For the Seahawks to get into the playoffs, they would need to win and an Atlanta loss to get in. Much more easy to get into the playoffs if you were the Seahawks than the Bills.

Once the regular season is over and every game has been played 12 of the 32 teams will move on to the playoffs while the other 20 teams look for answers to get back to the playoffs for the next season. Much of these decisions loom largely on the coaching staff, or rather the head coach. There's a phrase used in the National Football League for head coaches that get fired/sacked the following Monday after the final week, BLACK MONDAY! Here's a list of head coaches who's on the hot seat, or have already made plans to step down:

Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati: The league's second longest tenured head coach made plans to step down back on December 17th of this year. Despite being the Bengals head coach since 2003, he has made the playoffs in 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. However, the name of the game is did you win the Super Bowl that season, and all those playoff appearances mean nothing if you don't win a playoff game. Sadly this news of stepping down should've happened a few years ago.

Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis: The Colts head coach has certainly been dealt with a bad hand especially this season. With no Andrew Luck to help the Colts this season, the brass at the Colts camp could be looking to get rid of Chuck Pagano. Bad draft picks, bad personnel decisions could be seeing this head coach out the door despite making the playoffs in 2012, 2013, and 2014 (making the AFC Championship game in 2014, mind you).

Hue Jackson, Cleveland: The season for the Browns has been horrible (which doesn't say much) and questions of Hue Jackson's tenure at Cleveland once again surfaces. The Browns are sadly a mess that can't necessarily be fixed in a day's time. It seems every time the Browns try to do something good, it comes back to haunt them twofold. For example, the AJ McCarron botched trade earlier in the season. Hue Jackson doesn't necessarily see eye-to-eye on upper management either which could play into it as well.

Other head coaches to look out for: Dirk Kotter (Tampa Bay), John Fox (Chicago), and Jay Gruden (Washington).

A fun contest that has also been had during this season is the pick-em contest between me and my roommate, Cardinal Viking. The winner doesn't get a fancy trophy, money, or get put into the higher echelon of Pick-Em's, nope. The greatest glory is the glory to BRAG! The beginning of the season saw dominance from me while down the stretch it was Cardinal Viking that has been the dominating factor. The last time I did a column for picks we were back to the deadlock tie. Let's take a look at last week's results:

My record:
12-4 (Packers lost, Lions lost, Giants and Cowboys lost, GRRR)

Cardinal Viking's record:
14-2 (only losses were the Lions and Cowboys)

Make a note that in the event of a tie when I write next week's column I'll go to the week results and determine who won.

Week 17 of the regular season will have no Thursday night games, no Saturday games, and no Monday night games. The week will have 7 early games and 9 late games. There won't be a Sunday night football game due to apparently this Sunday will be New Years Eve and who watches football in primetime (uh makes sense I guess). It would be the first time since 1977 that there won't be a prime-time game to end the regular season. Certainly the NFL could've at least gave NBC the Titans-Jaguars game or Panthers-Falcons which has some playoff implications on it. Current TV rules gives both CBS and FOX 8 weeks each to have a doubleheader and the final week will have both TV partners a doubleheader to finish off the week. The week will feature only division games. HERE ARE THE PICKS:

Chicago @ Minnesota: Vikings. Both teams took wins last week as the Bears beat the Browns and the Vikings beat the Packers. The Vikings stellar season finishes off by beating the Bears at home.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh: Steelers. The Steelers got a win against the Texans and the Browns lost to the Bears last week. The 0-16 parade will happen for the Browns as the Steelers beat the Browns handily, even if the Steelers rest their starters.

Dallas @ Philadelphia: Eagles. The Cowboys lost to the Seahawks while the Eagles beat the Raiders last week. The Cowboys could play spoiler to the Philly faithful but when it comes to the Eagles/Cowboys rivalry, I don't think they could possibly let the Cowboys off easy with a win.

Green Bay @ Detroit: Lions. Both teams took losses last week as the Packers lost to the Vikings and the Lions lost to the Bengals. The Lions won easily the previous meeting of the two teams and I hope the Lions beat the Packers so bad, that Dom Capers (defensive coordinator of the Packers) hands his resignation letter and that Aaron Rodgers gives him the bird. Go Lions!

Houston @ Indianapolis: Texans. Both teams took losses last week as the Texans lost to the Steelers and the Colts to the Ravens. The Colts barely won the last time these two teams won and this will change this week as the Texans despite not having DeShaun Watson at QB. Give him something to cheer for!

NY Jets @ New England: The Patriots. The Jets lost to the Chargers and the Patriots beat the Bills last week. The Jets-Patriots rivalry reaches its conclusion for this season as I feel the Patriots will beat the Jets. If the game gets out of hand I feel the Pats could bench their starters in favor of having a healthy Brady come playoff time.

Washington @ NY Giants: Redskins. The Redskins beat the Broncos last week and the Giants lost to the Cardinals. The game could be close as all division games get in the NFC East but the Giants have had a terrible season and maybe they could win, but I won't give them a benefit of the doubt. HTTR

Arizona @ Seattle: Seahawks. Both teams picked up wins last week as the Cardinals beat the Giants and the Seahawks beat the Cowboys. The Cardinals could play a bit of a spoiler in the season finale but it seems to me that the Seahawks look to get hot at the right time and have momentum at their side come playoff time, should they get in.

Buffalo @ Miami: Bills. Both teams took losses last week as the Bills lost to the Patriots and the Dolphins lost to the Chiefs. The Bills look to get back into the playoffs since 1999 and I feel they can do it in this game as the Dolphins aren't particularly great. However, its the Bills and they can choke, still if they win, half the battle is over as they need help to get in.

Carolina @ Atlanta: Falcons. The Falcons lost to the Saints while the Panthers beat the Buccaneers last week. The last time these two teams met the game was very close and the final result came at the end of the game. The Falcons faithful will be loud as the Falcons make it back to the playoffs despite all the 28-3 jokes. I won't let that meme go.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore: Ravens. Both teams got wins last week as the Bengals beat the Lions and the Ravens beat the Colts. The game boils down to the whole spoiler vs hungry teams again. The Ravens look to get momentum on their side as they have a solid offense, great defense and special teams that could make a run into the playoffs. The Bengals however I don't trust them.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee: Jaguars. Both teams took losses as the Jaguars lost to the 49ers and the Titans to the Rams. The Jaguars will have a rebound week as they send the Titans packing out of their own building. The Titans could be out of the playoffs as well.

Kansas City @ Denver: Chiefs. The Chiefs beat the Dolphins last week and the Broncos lost to the Redskins. The Chiefs have had a limp season after starting 5-0, and I think they'll limp their way to a 10-6 record going into the playoffs.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay: Saints. The Saints took a win last week against the Falcons and the Buccaneers lost to the Panthers. Drew Brees and company look to make a run to the playoffs as they hand their division rival a loss. The Saints could rest their starters as well.

Oakland @ LA Chargers: Raiders. The Raiders lost to the Eagles and the Chargers beat the Jets last week. The Raiders have the power to play spoiler to the Chargers postseason plans and I think I'll take them. Oakland has had a dreadful season with Derek Carr's injury early in the year and I think the Raiders can salvage their record to a 7-9. The game has playoff implications for the Chargers.

San Francisco @ LA Rams: Rams. Both teams got wins last week as the Rams beat the Titans and the 49ers beat the Jaguars. The last time these two teams met was way back in Week 3. The 49ers were a different team then and I don't think they'll quite get over the hump against their division rival. Jimmy Garoppolo of the 49ers hasn't had a loss yet, interesting fact.

Local TV Schedule (vis 506sports.com, subject to change)

CBS Early:
NY Jets @ New England
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

CBS Late:
Kansas City @ Denver
Beth Mowins, Jay Feely

FOX Early:
Chicago @ Minnesota
Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis

FOX Late:
Carolina @ Atlanta
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

For more information on which game is shown in your area check out: NFL Week 17 Maps

Record:

Week 1: 10-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 11-5
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 7-7
Week 7: 8-7
Week 8: 12-1
Week 9: 6-7
Week 10: 9-5
Week 11: 8-6
Week 12: 14-2
Week 13: 12-4
Week 14: 8-8
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 12-4
Overall: 156-84

Cardinal Viking, my roommates record:

Week 1: 7-8
Week 2: 13-3
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 11-5
Week 5: 4-10
Week 6: 7-7
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 11-2
Week 9: 7-6
Week 10: 9-5
Week 11: 12-2
Week 12: 13-3
Week 13: 10-6
Week 14: 9-7
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 14-2
Overall: 158-82

Here's a cool video of some of the best Week 17 playoff clinchers in NFL History. May your team get into the playoffs. The video also features the choke job of the 2003 Vikings (muahhahaha):



See you next week for the Wild-Card picks and playoff predictions, as well as what I got right and wrong back in the Week 1 column.

-Tom

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