Wednesday, November 27, 2019

NFL 2019 Week 13 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. There is only five more weeks of regular season left in the season and the playoff picture is still hazy as many divisions are very tight. This post will be a fairly long one as there will be a NFL 100 Spotlight, a Thanksgiving tradition in which what all 32 teams are thankful for, and my picks for the Week 13 games. Let's get to work!

NFL 100: A Spotlight

The 1980's was a turning point in the NFL. The previous decade brought much dominance from the American Football Conference. While the AFC would win two more Super Bowl's in the 1980's, the decade belonged to the National Football Conference. The team that would dominate the decade would be the San Francisco 49ers.

In 1979, the San Francisco 49ers hired Bill Walsh to help reverse the course of the franchise. San Francisco's playoff success in the early 70's took a turn for the worst by the mid to late 1970's. Bill Walsh, who made a name for himself as the offensive coordinator with the Cincinnati Bengals from 1968 to 1975, made it a point to help revamp the 49ers offense.

In the draft,  Bill Walsh drafted Joe Montana and Dwight Clark. The arrival of the two wouldn't cause an immediate impact as the 49ers finished 1979 with a 2-14 record. When the team won it's 2nd game the fans stormed Candlestick Park, tore down the goalposts and the 49ers players carried Bill Walsh off the field. It perhaps was a foreshadow of what was about to come for the coming decade.

By 1980, the franchise was finally putting fans in the stands as the 49ers offense was putting points on the board. The problem was that their defense couldn't stop opposing offenses from scoring points. San Francisco would finish the season with a 6-10 record.

In 1981, Bill Walsh would draft his defense, particularly the secondary, with such players like Ronnie Lott and Eric Wright. Their new players along with additions like Fred Dean and Jack "Hacksaw" Reynolds they were the surprise story in 1981 with a 13-3 record. They would beat the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs, the latter game would be known as "The Catch" as Joe Montana hit Dwight Clark for a game-winning touchdown. They would beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl XVI.

The next two seasons wouldn't see a Super Bowl championship for San Francisco. In 1982, the 49ers failed to recapture the magic that the previous year found as the 49ers finished 3-6 in the strike-shortened season. The next season would see the 49ers return to success as they finished with a 10-6 record with a division title. They would beat the Detroit Lions in the divisional playoffs but would lose to the Washington Redskins on a questionable pass interference call.

In 1984, the 49ers returned to glory as both their defense and offense dominated the competition with a 15-1 record. They beat the New York Giants and Chicago Bears in the playoffs with scores of 21-10 and 23-0 respectively. They were back in the Super Bowl.

For the 49ers in Super Bowl XIX, their star quarterback in Joe Montana played 2nd fiddle to Miami Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino, who had a successful season. The 1984 Dolphins offense was one of the best in NFL history and made records that stood until the 2007 Patriots broke them. San Francisco's defense would cause havoc against Marino and wouldn't have a great game. Joe Montana, on the other hand, would have one of his greatest games as the 49ers would rout the Dolphins 38-16.

The next three seasons would bring change as the 49ers began to revamp their roster. In 1985, the 49ers drafted a diamond in the rough in Jerry Rice. The 49ers would finish the season with a 10-6 record but would lose to the Giants in the Wild Card round.

In the 1986 draft, the 49ers would draft Charles Haley, Tom Rathman, and John Taylor to help revamp the roster where older veterans would retire. The season was much of the same as the 49ers won the division by a 10-5-1 record. They would lose to the Giants in one of the worst losses in the Bill Walsh era as they were routed 49-3. One of the reasons for the loss was that Joe Montana was knocked out of the game.

The 1987 draft was somewhat of a quiet one as the 49ers would draft Harris Barton out of North Carolina. However, the team traded for Steve Young from Tampa Bay. The team finished with the best record in the strike-shorted season with a 13-2 record. San Francisco's season would end in one of the biggest playoff upsets as the Minnesota Vikings won on the road by a score of 36-24. Joe Montana struggled during the game and Steve Young wouldn't play savior either. Bill Walsh was stripped of his team president badge and there was much doubt whether or not the 49ers were finished.

The 1988 season would see much doubt as Bill Walsh alternated Steve Young and Joe Montana at quarterback. The carousel would match the record as the 49ers limped with a 10-6 record. There was doubt if the 49ers would win the Super Bowl. Joe Montana would recover and return to his past self late in the season and well into the playoffs. They would get their revenge over the Vikings and beat the Bears in the NFC championship game.

Their opponent in Super Bowl XXIII was a familiar one as the Cincinnati Bengals looked to get their revenge over their loss in Super Bowl XVI. They were also coached by Sam Wyche, Joe Montana's former quarterbacks coach. Montana would lead the 49ers on a game-winning drive to beat the Bengals 20-16. The game would be Bill Walsh's last as head coach.

In 1989, the 49ers would continue their momentum and plowed through the competition with a 14-2 record. George Seifert was named head coach. They would beat the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams by scores of 41-13 and 30-3 respectively. Super Bowl XXIV would be one of the biggest routs in NFL history as the 49ers beat the Denver Broncos 55-10 to close out the decade.

While the 49ers in the 1980's weren't quite the dynasty in terms of "X number of championships in less than 5-6 years" they were rather a dominant team that had much success in the decade, rather than being dominant in a period of the decade like the 2000's Patriots or the 1990's Cowboys. Truly the centerpiece for their team was the duo of Joe Montana and Bill Walsh.


Thanksgiving: NFL Style

When I restarted doing blogs on the NFL back in 2017, I made it a tradition to have a "Thanksgiving" portion of the blog where all 32 teams had something to be thankful for. Since everyone has something to be thankful for things like: health, family, friends, etc. This is essentially the same for NFL teams. Here's the list:

Arizona Cardinals: That you have a competent quarterback that you should keep for longer than a year. Seriously give him some help.

Atlanta Falcons: You've had a bad season but you did beat the Saints in the SuperDome in one of the biggest upsets of the season. You have that.

Baltimore Ravens: Lamar fucking Jackson! Enough said.

Buffalo Bills: You've had a soft schedule but you almost beat New England at home. Josh Allen is reasonably good quarterback, give him some help.

Carolina Panthers: You may have found a diamond in the rough in terms of Kyle Allen but more importantly you have Christian McCaffrey as a potential MVP candidate.

Chicago Bears: The Mitchell Trubisky era might be over... soon... eventually.

Cincinnati Bengals: You might be in the running for the #1 pick in the draft!

Cleveland Browns: You still have a shot to make the playoffs despite all the hype that you've gotten.

Dallas Cowboys: The Jason Garrett era might be over... eventually.

Denver Broncos: There's a plethora of quarterbacks in the draft... that John Elway will take another shot at.

Detroit Lions: Can't lose in the playoffs if you're not in the playoffs. Smart move.

Green Bay Packers: Matt LeFleur and Aaron Jones.

Houston Texans: DeShaun Watson has the possiblity to lead you into a division title while your division is terrible.

Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck might've retired but the fact that you're at where you're at is more than enough to be thankful.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Gardner Minshew for giving you four of the four wins you have right now.

Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes, otherwise your inept running game and defense would see this team below .500

Los Angeles Chargers: You're not likely going to go to London but Los Angeles isn't exactly your home either. You could always move back to San Di... oh that's right. :-(

Los Angeles Rams: You've had a rough season but you get to move into a new stadium next year.

Miami Dolphins: You're not going to be the first team to have teams that went 17-0 and 0-16 as a franchise.

Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins resurgence as a passer and Dalvin Cook.

New England Patriots: Tom Brady. You're spoiled as fuck.

New Orleans Saints: Teddy Bridgewater keeping you in the playoff hunt.

New York Giants: Danny Dimes.

New York Jets: Adam Gase is eventually going to be fired... right?

Oakland Raiders: You could potentially still be in the playoffs in your last season at Oakland.

Philadelphia Eagles: Your wide receivers could find their 2nd calling as jugglers since... they drop balls.

Pittsburgh Steelers: You still could get in the playoffs despite losing Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown in the offseason while losing Ben Roethlisberger to injury.

San Francisco 49ers: Your team is reminiscent of those 80's and 90's teams.

Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston throwing a touchdown pass. Pretty much any pass in general is reason to be thankful for.

Tennessee Titans: Ryan Tannehill has given new life to your offense and you're one of the hotter teams in the NFL.

Washington Redskins: Your team sucks but eventually Daniel Snyder has to go away (whether it'll be death, selling the team). At least you have the Capitals and the Nationals to give you attention.

Week 13 Picks!

Week 13 in the NFL regular season will start in Detroit, Michigan and ends in Seattle, Washington. No teams are on a bye week. There will be three Thursday games, eight early games, three late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. CBS will have the double-header this week while FOX will have the single, regional game. Here are the picks!

Chicago (5-6) @ Detroit (3-7-1) (FOX): TW: Bears; CV: Bears

The Bears beat the Giants and the Lions lost to the Redskins last week. Thanksgiving starts off with a decent match-up with two NFC North rivals. I feel the Bears will get it done based on their defense. Plus, the Lions are starting David Blough whom I had no idea who he was until now. Sorry Lions.

Buffalo (8-3) @ Dallas (6-5) (CBS): TW: Cowboys; CV: Bills

The Bills beat the Broncos and the Cowboys lost to the Patriots last week. The "turkey in your system forcing you to sleep" game features a match-up that the Cowboys should win. Buffalo hasn't played a solid team and won in the same game. I can't trust them. I feel if the Cowboys can get Ezekiel Elliot going and create balance on offense and make Josh Allen beat you, then Dallas has a shot to win.

New Orleans (9-2) @ Atlanta (3-8) (NBC): TW: Saints; CV: Saints

The Saints beat the Panthers and the Falcons lost to the Buccaneers last week. While you're out shopping for gifts, this game will be on. This game wouldn't have much storylines had the Saints beat the Falcons a few weeks ago. The game will be a grand revenge game for New Orleans who upset them at home. Go get 'em.

San Francisco (10-1) @ Baltimore (9-2) (FOX): TW: Ravens; CV: 49ers

Both teams got wins last week as the 49ers beat the Packers and the Ravens beat the Rams. A really good early game to watch if you're bored. The 49ers are traveling cross-country and we will learn a lot about their rush defense and how they can defend against Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. I feel the jet lag will effect them the way that Oakland had last week.

Tampa Bay (4-7) @ Jacksonville (4-7) (FOX): TW: Buccaneers; CV: Jaguars

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons and the Jaguars lost to the Titans. Nick Foles has yet to get a win in his tenure at Jacksonville. In general, I like the Bucs pass offense as they do have some great weapons in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and a running game to match. Jaguars defense is not good.

Tennessee (6-5) @ Indianapolis (6-5) (CBS): TW: Titans; CV: Colts

The Titans beat the Jaguars and Colts lost to the Texans last week. The Colts rush defense will have their hands full in this one as the Titans have a great running attack. The Colts will need to find a capable back to ease some pressure off of Jacoby Brissett. Ultimately, I like the Titans running game and their quarterback Ryan Tannehill has done well in Marcus Mariota's stead.

Washington (2-9) @ Carolina (5-6) (CBS): TW: Panthers, CV: Panthers

The Redskins beat the Lions and the Panthers lost to the Saints last week. The game is a mismatch on offense as the Panthers have balance on offense, while the Redskins... don't. Washington's defense could make this game interesting and close but I don't see them slowing or stopping Christian McCaffrey.

Philadelphia (5-6) @ Miami (2-9) (FOX): TW: Eagles; CV: Eagles

Both teams lost last week as the Eagles lost to the Seahawks and the Dolphins lost to the Browns. The game is a must win for the Eagles if they want to stay with the Cowboys in the division race. It will take a lot of luck for them to get a wild card spot. Miami isn't quite the team to match with the Eagles but this game could be an upset if you're not too careful. I'll take the safe bet with Philly.

NY Jets (4-7) @ Cincinnati (0-11) (CBS): TW: Jets; CV: Jets

The Jets beat the Raiders and the Bengals lost to the Steelers last week. If there was a game where the Bengals could get win #1, it is this one. It's a long shot but its better than 0% chance. Unfortunately, I like the Jets in their pass offense and their overall defense. I'm gonna take the safe bet again and take the Jets.

Green Bay (8-3) @ NY Giants (2-9) (FOX): TW: Packers; CV:  Packers

Both teams lost last week as the Packers lost to the 49ers and the Giants lost to the Bears. Green Bay had its worst showing last week and they're heading into a period of playing weaker teams in the schedule. Aaron Rodgers and the offense needs to play better and get back to the plays that made them an 8-3 team. Green Bay's defense should be alright as the Giants offense outside of Saquon Barkley pose a tremendous threat.

Cleveland (5-6) @ Pittsburgh (6-5) (CBS): TW: Steelers; CV: Steelers

Both teams got wins last week as the Browns beat the Dolphins and the Steelers beat the Bengals. The game will have intensity but not the "helmet swinging" intensity as the last game. Cleveland could very well win the game but they haven't done well on the road with a 2-3 record so far. Devlin Hodges has a small sample size of tape but I feel that Hodges is a winner and can play confident in this game. The loss of Myles Garrett due to the suspension will hurt the Browns defense. If the Steelers defense can cause havoc against the Browns offense, they got a good chance to win.

LA Rams (6-5) @ Arizona (3-7-1) (FOX): TW: Rams; CV: Rams

The Rams lost to the Ravens and the Cardinals were on a bye last week. Arizona will have an extra week of rest while the Rams look to redeem themselves after a terrible loss. I think the Rams will win based on their running game and a capable quarterback that can throw to his receivers. I don't like the Rams chances if they let the Cardinals hang around in this game as Kyler Murray can get it done with his legs and arm.

LA Chargers (4-7) @ Denver (3-8) (CBS): TW: Chargers; CV: Broncos

The Chargers were on a bye and the Broncos lost to the Bills last week. Phillip Rivers had pretty bad game against the Chiefs two weeks ago and the Broncos defense are hungry for his mistakes. Denver has a pretty good running game and its hard to say which team's run game will win the game. I tend to lean the Chargers as they do have a decent defense.

Oakland (6-5) @ Kansas City (7-4) (CBS): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs

The Raiders lost to the Jets and the Chiefs were on a bye last week. The Raiders-Chiefs rivalry will have its best chance to reignite in this one. The Chiefs running game will need to step it up and keep Patrick Mahomes on the field as he presents the biggest obstacle for the Raiders to win. It's a tough task and the Raiders will utilize Josh Jacobs to the fullest extent but the Chiefs will get a win at home.

New England (10-1) @ Houston (7-4) (NBC): TW: Patriots; CV: Patriots

Both teams got wins last week as the Patriots beat the Cowboys and the Texans beat the Colts. The game looks like a good one as both teams have capable quarterbacks and running games to match. Defense will be the deciding factor in this game as New England presents a great challenge against the Texans offense as they can shut down any team, especially when it comes to scoring touchdowns. I like the Pats defense.

Minnesota (8-3) @ Seattle (9-2) (ESPN): TW: Seahawks; CV: Vikings

The Vikings were on a bye and the Seahawks beat the Eagles last week. Minnesota will be on extra rest in the game while the Seahawks look to keep up in the division race with San Francisco. Both teams really are similar and I feel the Vikings defense is better than Seattle's, I feel the balanced attack of Seattle will expose the Vikings defense. Seattle will need to shut down Dalvin Cook if they want a shot to get a win. Definitely an entertaining match-up to end the week.

Local TV Schedule:

FOX Single:
Philadelphia @ Miami
Kenny Albert, Ronde Barber

CBS Early:
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

CBS Late:
Oakland @ Kansas City
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Courtesy as always from 506sports, games subject to change, for more info on which game is being played in your area, check out: NFL 2019: Week 13 Maps

The Records (By Week & Year):

Cardinal Viking:
2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2

2019:
Week 1: 11-4-1
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 7-8
Week 5: 9-6
Week 6: 7-7
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 11-4
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 2-11
Week 11: 12-2
Week 12: 9-5
Overall: 108-69-1

My record: 
2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2

2019:
Week 1: 12-3-1
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-7
Week 5: 5-10
Week 6: 9-5
Week 7: 7-7
Week 8: 14-1
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 5-8
Week 11: 10-4
Week 12: 10-4
Overall: 109-66-1

I will see you guys after the Monday night game for the Week 13 Recap!
-Tom

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