Friday, January 5, 2024

NFL 2023 Week 18 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again! There is now only this week left of the regular season. With that there is still a few playoff spots still open to those that want it. Those who are out of it are already looking forward past Week 18 and into the future. In this post I will post a New Years Resolution NFL style, Week 18 playoff picture, preview and picks. As well as the Early and Late TV Broadcast pairings. Let's get to work!

New Years Resolutions: NFL 2023 Edition

Week 18 is the first week of National Football League action in the 2024 calendar year. With that NFL teams, like people, have New Years Resolutions for the new year. Here's what I think each team's motivations for 2024 will be.

Arizona Cardinals: Try to keep Kyler Murray and try to build something around him. 

Atlanta Falcons: Convince Russell Wilson to join your team

Baltimore Ravens: Probably don't need to do anything but try not to be a one and done team in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills: Keep winning and go for broke and take the AFC East from the Dolphins. 

Carolina Panthers: Try to find a head coach and keep him for more than a year. 

Chicago Bears: Don't move out of Soldier Field. 

Cincinnati Bengals: Hope that Joe Burrow's injuries in 2023 will prove to be a healthy championship run in 2024. 

Cleveland Browns: Maybe finding a quarterback in the bargain bin in Joe Flacco is better than a 100+ million dollar man in DeShaun Watson. 

Dallas Cowboys: Try to not shit the bed in the playoffs. 

Denver Broncos: The Russell Wilson era was probably more than an average to sad era in Broncos history. 

Detroit Lions: Win a playoff game. 

Green Bay Packers: Keeping a quarterback for 15+ years and torment the rest of the NFC North. 

Houston Texans: Achieve a playoff spot and build your team for the future. 

Indianapolis Colts: Have Jim Irsay not spend so much on things. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Actually win the AFC South by a better margin next year. 

Kansas City Chiefs: Quit dropping the ball and stop blaming on refs for your own mistakes. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Keep a head coach longer than a year. 

Los Angeles Chargers: Get a high level head coach

Los Angeles Rams: Let other teams find diamonds in the rough, you keep finding them. 

Miami Dolphins: Actually try to win a playoff game this season. 

Minnesota Vikings: Win games and stop giving your fans false hope. 

New England Patriots: Try not to throw a stupid interception at any moment. 

New Orleans Saints: Maybe need more than just one resolution. 

New York Giants: Apologize to your fans for having so many blowout losses. 

New York Jets: Hope that Aaron Rodgers Achilles tendon is built by steel next season. 

Philadelphia Eagles: Have your fans be nicer people. Might be a tough stretch there. 

Pittsburgh Steelers: Try to get into the playoffs so that the Yinzers can calm down. 

San Francisco 49ers: Not try to break a bone during the playoffs. 

Seattle Seahawks: find some defensive players for your team. You'll need it. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: try to win 10 games next season. You don't need to give your fans that much of a heart attack. 

Tennessee Titans: give Derrick Henry the reins at quarterback and running back. Really. 

Washington Commanders: Don't really need to have one. You got a new owner that isn't a POS. 

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 18


With the final week of the regular season upon us, there is a few spots left for the playoffs. For those who are currently in a spot, they just have to win and in. For those who are out, looking in they have some work to do. Let's take a look at the AFC.

Seeding

1st seed: Baltimore Ravens (13-3) (Clinched AFC North & Homefield Advantage)
2nd seed: Miami Dolphins (11-5) (clinched playoff spot)
3rd seed: Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) (Clinched AFC West)
4th seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
5th seed: Cleveland Browns (11-5) (clinched playoff spot)
6th seed: Buffalo Bills (10-6)
7th seed: Indianapolis Colts (9-7)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Indianapolis @ Miami
Buffalo @ Kansas City
Cleveland @ Jacksonville

In the Hunt

Houston (9-7), Pittsburgh (9-7)

Better Luck Next Year

Denver (8-8), Cincinnati (8-8), Las Vegas (7-9), NY Jets (6-10), Tennessee (5-11), LA Chargers (5-11), New England (4-12)

Big matchup in the AFC South with the Texans-Colts matchup. The winner will clinch a playoff spot and have a shot to with the AFC South with a Jaguars loss. If the Bills beat the Dolphins, they win the AFC East. The Steelers will need to win and hope for a Bills or Jaguars loss. Let's look at the NFC.

Seeding

1st seed: San Francisco 49ers (12-4) (Clinched NFC West and Homefield advantage)
2nd seed: Dallas Cowboys (11-5) (Clinched playoff berth)
3rd seed: Detroit Lions (11-5) (Clinched NFC North)
4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
5th seed: Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) (Clinched playoff berth)
6th seed: Los Angeles Rams (9-7) (Clinched playoff berth)
7th seed: Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Green Bay @ Dallas
LA Rams @ Detroit
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

In the Hunt

Seattle (8-8), New Orleans (8-8), Minnesota (7-9), Atlanta (7-9)

Better Luck Next Year

Chicago (7-9), NY Giants (5-11), Washington 4-12), Arizona (4-12), Carolina (2-14)

Green Bay needs to win and they're in. Tampa Bay needs to win and they clinch the NFC South. Whoever wins the Saints-Falcons game and Buccaneers loss will clinch the NFC South. Minnesota needs to win and hope for a Packers, Saints and Seahawks loss. Philadelphia can win the NFC East with a win and Cowboys loss. 

Week 18 Preview


The Eighteenth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Baltimore, Maryland and will finish in Miami, Florida. Week 18 will feature a 16-game slate where all 32 teams will play. No teams are on a bye this week. Both CBS and FOX will have doubleheaders this week due to the NFL TV contract. They both had a doubleheader in Week 1 as well. Let's get to the picks!

Week 18 Picks


Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me and CV is Cardinal Viking, my former roommate.


Pittsburgh (9-7) @ Baltimore (13-3) (ABC; 4:30 pm): TW: Steelers; CV: Ravens
The Steelers beat the Seahawks and the Ravens beat the Dolphins last week. Week 18 starts with an intriguing matchup in the AFC North. Pittsburgh needs to win and they will likely be in need of a Bills, Jaguars, or Texans-Colts ending in a tie. It feels that the other scenario will be the easier of the two. Baltimore hasn't yet said whether or not they will rest their starters or play them either some of the game or all of the game. Personally I would let them play a series and then let them rest. The Ravens won't be playing football for at least two weeks. Pittsburgh has a hot quarterback in Mason Rudolph. Baltimore doesn't have a lot to play for but pride in the Steelers-Ravens rivalry. I'll take the Steelers in the case of the Ravens resting their starters. 

Houston (9-7) @ Indianapolis (9-7) (ABC; 8:15 pm): TW: Texans; CV: Colts
The Texans beat the Titans and the Colts beat the Raiders last week. Saturday's doubleheader finishes up with some drama. The winner of this game and if the Jaguars lose will win the AFC South. At least if you win you get a shot to get into the playoffs. Houston has had a solid season with CJ Stroud at the helm. He has 21 touchdown passes when if he could have the wide receivers of Kansas City or Philadelphia, he might have more. I would concur that he should be Rookie of the Year on offense. Indianapolis has a decent quarterback in Gardner Minshew. I think the Colts offense isn't as good as the Texans offense. I feel the wide receiver group is in the Colts advantage. I think the Colts will fall short of winning this game and the division, let alone the playoffs. I'll take the Texans. 

Atlanta (7-9) @ New Orleans (8-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Falcons; CV: Saints
The Falcons lost to the Bears and the Saints beat the Buccaneers. An NFC South showdown. Atlanta needs a win to have a small chance to get into the playoffs as the NFC South division representative. Atlanta has been somewhat of a wishy washy team. Their offense has kind of played better with Taylor Heinicke whereas it has done better with Desmond Ridder. At some point it needs to get better. Bijan Robinson should be utilized a bit more. New Orleans could very well win this game as they have a solid offense where they can beat you on both the run and pass games. I don't really trust the Saints to do anything right and same for the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to spite New Orleans. 

Cleveland (11-5) @ Cincinnati (8-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Bengals; CV: Browns
The Browns beat the Jets and the Bengals lost to the Chiefs last week. AFC North battle. The Browns currently have the 5th seed in the playoffs and won't move up but might somewhat fall down if they lose. It's an uneasy situation for the Browns. I am mixed with resting starters. It can work but it might not work out. The Bengals will be playing for pride and fight for being spoiler. I'll take the Bengals in the aspect that the Browns will rest starters for at least a portion or most of the game. 

Minnesota (7-9) @ Detroit (11-5) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Lions; CV: Vikings
The Vikings lost to the Packers and the Lions lost to the Cowboys last week. Detroit is having the best season in over a decade. They would like to continue their run and possibly get better seeding. They will need to win and have the Commanders provide some help and beat the Cowboys. Minnesota doesn't have a lot to play for except for pride and playing well enough for people to look at you in the offseason. They could play spoiler as well. Detroit could lose the game and won't fall a whole lot as the 4th seeded Buccaneers are at 8-8 at the moment. The Lions made it a close game against the Vikings in Week 16 and I feel it will be the same again in this one. 

Jacksonville (9-7) @ Tennessee (5-11) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Jaguars; CV: Titans
The Jaguars beat the Panthers and the Titans lost to the Texans last week. The road to the playoffs is simple for the Jaguars. If they win, they are in. If they lose then they might be in a bit of trouble. Fortunately by the time they start this game, the Jaguars will know that they need to win. The Texans-Colts matchup will decide itself. Maybe the big win against the Panthers might give the Jaguars the needed momentum that teams want heading into the playoffs. What they face is a Titans squad that isn't having the best of seasons. Their team is a mess judging by their record. What they could possibly do is play spoiler to the Jaguars. I know that Colts and Texans fans will like nothing more than to see the top dog fall down. I think the Jaguars will take it. 

NY Jets (6-10) @ New England (4-12) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Patriots; CV: Jets
The Jets lost to the Browns and the Patriots lost to the Bills last week. The rare sight of the Jets having a better season than the Patriots. New York has had a rough season that encapsulated in Aaron Rodgers going four plays and rupturing his Achilles. Thus bringing the Jets season to a close. Trevor Siemian has been kind of a decent option for them but decent is pushing it. New England might be seeing its head coach Bill Belichick head out for greener pastures. If that is the case then possibly it might be smart for the Patriots to win one more game for their head coach. He deserves at least one more win in his storied time in New England. I'll give the nod to the Patriots. 

Tampa Bay (8-8) @ Carolina (2-14) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Buccaneers; CV: Panthers
The Buccaneers lost to the Saints and the Panthers lost to the Jaguars last week. The scenario is simple for the Buccaneers, if they win, they win the NFC South for the 3rd consecutive time. If they lose and the Saints beat the Falcons, Tampa is out. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, they play against the worst team in the NFL in Carolina. I like the Bucs chances in the game as they possess a functioning offense and a defense that is halfway decent. Carolina is having a rough season. They would like nothing more than to finish it up on a high note. The high note beating the Buccaneers. Personally, I think the Panthers will attempt to give it their all in this game and to knock the Bucs out. I feel somewhat safe with the Buccaneers. 

Chicago (7-9) @ Green Bay (8-8) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Packers; CV: Bears
The Bears beat the Falcons last week and the Packers beat the Vikings last week. Chicago saw its playoff hopes end by the hands of the Packers. The late resurgence was a bit of a too late sort of deal. Too many losses costed them. The Bears don't have a whole lot to play for but to play spoiler. Green Bay just needs to win and they're in. Momentum would prove to be in the Packers favor as they beat the Vikings on the road last week. They got the running game going and Jordan Love is slowly getting better every week. Green Bay has dominated the Bears as of late and I think the dominance will continue. 

Dallas (11-5) @ Washington (4-12) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Commanders; CV: Cowboys
The Cowboys beat the Lions and the Commanders lost to the 49ers last week. The Cowboys could lock up the NFC East with a win. If they lose to Washington they could drop to the 5th seed. They have a bit of a dilemma for sure. It is questionable if the Cowboys should rest their starters or let them play. Washington doesn't have that dilemma as they are not sniffing the playoffs. They could play spoiler. I like Sam Howell when he can protect the football and throw the ball. I hope that Washington's current or new regime keeps him and gives him a shot. I'm going on a whim and go with the heavy underdog Commanders. Why not. 

Denver (8-8) @ Las Vegas (7-9) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Raiders; CV: Broncos
The Broncos beat the Chargers and the Raiders lost to the Colts last week. Both teams won't have much to play for. Denver is looking into the future and will throw Jarrett Stidham again into this game. Gone are the days of Russell Wilson as he will move onto greener pastures in the offseason. The take on Stidham has been kind of mixed. He threw for 224 yards with a touchdown last week. He will have a bit of a challenge against the Raiders defensive front. Las Vegas has had the season that resembles a roller coaster. At least they have won games. I think they should give Antonio Pierce the reins and help guide this team into 2024. The players like him and the fans seem to respond well to him. I'll go with the Raiders. 

Kansas City (10-6) @ LA Chargers (5-11) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chargers
The Chiefs beat the Bengals and the Chargers lost to the Broncos last week. The defending champs made it to the playoffs and will be the representative for the AFC West for the 8th consecutive year. That will mean a home playoff game in Arrowhead next week. Patrick Mahomes and company haven't had the best season ever by any stretch. Maybe beating up on the cellar dweller Chargers can inspire them to stop dropping passes and play solid football. The Chargers won't be seeking more football past this week. They will have a lot of work to do to figure out who is going to be their head coach next year. At this moment I don't see them winning this game. Unless the Chiefs are actually wanting to rest their starters. I'll take the risk and take the Chiefs. 

LA Rams (9-7) @ San Francisco (12-4) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Rams; CV: 49ers
The Rams beat the Giants and the 49ers beat the Commanders last week. Matthew Stafford will be resting in this game. In his stead will be journeyman quarterback Carson Wentz. Yep that guy will be starting. The past on Carson Wentz has been mixed to probably below average. A one-year wonder in 2017 and then fell off a cliff afterwards. Hard to say whether or not his team's offense will also rest their players but he has a decent shot to give his team a backup role next season. Let alone him getting the reins after Stafford leaves. The Niners locked up the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs and will get the bye next week. They will be resting their starters likely. It could be interesting how well they can play in a couple of weeks for the Divisional playoffs. Suffice to say, I like the Rams in the matchup and think they will continue their march of momentum into next week. 

Philadelphia (11-5) @ NY Giants (5-11) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Eagles; CV: Giants
The Eagles lost to the Cardinals and the Giants lost to the Rams last week. Philadelphia missed an opportunity to get back into the NFC East division race. They still have a playoff spot locked up but they will likely have to play on the road to get to a Super Bowl. Philadelphia's offense has mostly been ran by Jalen Hurts who has 38 total touchdowns to his name. He has a plethora of receivers but might be without Devonta Smith for this game as he has ankle injury. The Giants are trying to play out the season and not expected to win. It's hard to say with these Week 18 games if teams will play at half mast or full power. If you catch my meaning. Tyrod Taylor might have a decent game but it doesn't seem likely that he'll throw for 400 yards. I'll go with the Eagles. 

Seattle (8-8) @ Arizona (4-12) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Cardinals; CV: Seahawks
The Seahawks lost to the Steelers and the Cardinals beat the Eagles last week. Seattle won't be seeing playoffs likely. They will need to win and get some help. They will need a win and a Packers loss to sniff the wild card. Fortunately for Seahawks fans, the Bears-Packers matchup will be on simultaneously. For the Seahawks, their team is a pretty solid one. They're better when Kenneth Walker III is healthy and able to get 100+ yards in a game. Geno Smith is having a solid season as well. What they face is a resurgent Cardinals team that has Kyler Murray playing better in a short period of time than at any time arguably in his career. I like Murray and hope that the Cardinals can keep him happy. Perhaps getting a highly touted wide receiver might help. I like the Cardinals to play spoiler in this game. They played well enough to beat the Eagles last week. 

Buffalo (10-6) @ Miami (11-5) (NBC; 8:20 pm): TW: Bills; CV: Dolphins
The Bills beat the Patriots and the Dolphins lost to the Ravens last week. The regular season ends with the AFC East division championship up for grabs. The Bills certainly have the momentum on their side. They have the balance on offense that had been lacking in the earlier part of the season. Getting Ken Dorsey off of Offensive Coordinator duties and putting in Joe Brady in made a bit of a difference. Will be interesting to see how well they play against Miami. Miami had looked like they'd run away with the AFC East. Losses to the Titans and now the Ravens have the Dolphins reeling. They could possibly rebound. Typically the Bills tend to do rougher in Miami but that's usually because of the hot Florida sun. It'll be a bit cooler for this game. I'll take the Bills to take the cake. 

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings


Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings


CBS Early

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Atlanta @ New Orleans
Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Matt Ryan

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Tom McCarthy, James Lofton, Jay Feely

CBS Late

Chicago @ Green Bay
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

FOX Early

Minnesota @ Detroit
Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

NY Jets @ New England
Chris Myers, Robert Smith

FOX Late

Dallas @ Washington
Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olson

LA Rams @ San Francisco
Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth

Seattle @ Arizona
Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez

Denver @ Las Vegas
Jason Benetti, Matt Millen

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2023: Week 18 Maps


Records


Cardinal Viking:

2023: 
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 13-3
Week 5: 6-8
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 4-9
Week 8: 10-6
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 6-8
Week 11: 7-7
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 9-4
Week 14: 5-10
Week 15: 10-6
Week 16: 10-6
Week 17: 7-9

Total: 141-115

2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 151-104-1
2020: 163-92-1
2021: 167-104-1
2022: 157-112-2

My record: 

2023:
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 14-2
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 8-7
Week 7: 5-8
Week 8: 10-6
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 7-7
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 8-8
Week 13: 9-4
Week 14: 4-11
Week 15: 10-6
Week 16: 9-7
Week 17: 9-7

Total: 151-105

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1 
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2

See you all Sunday/Monday night for the Week 18 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom


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