NFL 2024 Week 4 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The regular season is 17% complete and with it there is no defined team that stands out in the pack. The games that I'm keeping an eye on this week is the Cowboys-Giants, Broncos-Jets, Vikings-Packers, Chiefs-Chargers and Seahawks-Lions.

Week 4 Preview

The fourth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in East Rutherford, New Jersey and wrap up in Detroit, Michigan. The week features a 16-game slate where all 32 teams will play. There will be a Thursday night game, eight early games four late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. For matchups, there will be five division matchups, two AFC-NFC matchups, five AFC matchups and four NFC matchups. CBS will have the doubleheader and FOX will carry the single, regional game. No teams are on a bye this week. Let's get to the picks!

Week 4 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me 

Dallas (1-2) @ NY Giants (1-2) (Amazon; 8:15 pm): TW: Cowboys

The Cowboys lost to the Ravens and the Giants beat the Browns last week. Dallas has been in a roller coaster of a start to the season. They won handily against the Browns, lost badly against the Saints and almost beat the Ravens. Despite this, I think they should be able to handle the Giants at least by 10 points. New York finally got off the skid and Daniel Jones threw a lot of passes to rookie Malik Nabers. For once, the Giants didn't turn the ball over. The win against Cleveland wasn't without mistakes. One such mistake was on the opening kickoff where the G-men fumbled and lead to a Browns score. They found a way to win and got a win. Had the Giants lost, I think the game against Dallas would be a bit of a lopside one. Maybe the Giants make this one a bit of an interesting one. 

All-time series: Cowboys lead 75-47-2

Denver (1-2) @ NY Jets (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Jets

The Broncos and Jets won last week as the Broncos beat the Buccaneers and the Jets beat the Patriots. Denver finally found a way to win last week and upset the previously undefeated Buccaneers. They did it with a gameplan that was safe for rookie Bo Nix to go to. The throws he made were nice and easy with a sprinkle of deep throws. The test this week is can they repeat the same success against one of the toughest defenses in the league. The Jets showed the world that they can compete and win big. The Jets really took over and never let up against New England. The defense really shut them down and let the offense do its job and Aaron Rodgers looked like his old self. I think the matchup for this game is the Broncos offense and the Jets defense. The game will be the first time that Aaron Rodgers plays against Sean Payton. Payton last year made comments regarding how the previous head coach did a poor job in Denver. The previous head coach being Nathaniel Hackett. 

All-time series: Broncos lead 22-18-1

Cincinnati (0-3) @ Carolina (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Bengals

The Bengals lost to the Commanders and the Panthers beat the Raiders last week. Cincinnati had a chance to win last week against Washington. Their defense really couldn't stop the Commanders offense and even let rookie Jayden Daniels only have two incompletions in that game. They could have a great game on offense where Joe Burrow can get three touchdown passes but still lose. Defense needs to play better for sure. Carolina looked lost with Bryce Young at the helm. Needing a change to boost offense and to save their season, the Panthers brass choose Andy Dalton for that boost. The Red Rifle didn't disappoint. The Panthers scored 36 points and lead to a road win, a first for Carolina since 2022. Uffdah. I also realize that Andy Dalton was drafted by Cincy so there's that. If the Bengals want to get back into playing well to get to a playoff spot, they need to win this game. Like all hands on deck sort of ordeal. I'll take the Bengals.

All-time series: Series tied 3-3-1

Jacksonville (0-3) @ Houston (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Texans

The Jaguars lost to the Bills and the Texans lost to the Vikings last week. Jacksonville has been on a skid since last year by at least since last November. Their offense just looks off and Trevor Lawrence just looks lost. It's weird even that Doug Pederson was picked to be the person that would fix him. The first season together looked like that when they won a playoff game. It doesn't make sense. Houston fell back to earth against Minnesota. CJ Stroud looked mortal and saw ghosts. Ghosts that were wearing Purple uniforms that caught interceptions from Stroud. The Texans should be able to win this one but if turnovers are like the ones last week, might be seeing the Jaguars get win #1. 

All-time series: Texans lead 29-15

LA Rams (1-2) @ Chicago (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Rams

The Rams beat the 49ers and the Bears lost to the Colts last week. A duel between the veteran Matthew Stafford and the rookie Caleb Williams. The Rams got a big win against rival San Francisco. They never gave up and came back from not one but two 14-point deficits. The Rams have a special back in Kyren Williams who might be a big factor for them winning this game. Chicago has had its ups and downs in this young season. The book is still out on Caleb Williams but he did get his first two touchdowns in his career last week. The Bears key will be stopping on defense and giving their offense a chance. Despite the turnovers, the Bears offense is starting to look up a bit. The Rams defense isn't quite as good as they have been so there might be some hope. I still like the Rams as experience would say otherwise. 

All-time series: Bears lead 54-39-3

Minnesota (3-0) @ Green Bay (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Vikings

The two teams won last week as the Vikings beat the Texans and the Packers beat the Titans. A rivalry renews as a new chapter begins. Minnesota has been impressive so far with no Kirk Cousins throwing footballs. They've done it with Sam Darnold having a career renaissance. Of course it helps when Justin Jefferson catches footballs and goes a long way with that football. Sometimes for six points. The defense has been the most improved part for Minnesota's success. Green Bay has been holding steady through the storm that is without quarterback Jordan Love. Malik Willis has been playing steady football for them and at times playing well. The defense as well has been playing superb as well. I think the Vikings have been the most impressive team between the two. I'll take the Vikings. 

All-time series: Packers lead 66-58-3

New Orleans (2-1) @ Atlanta (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Saints

The Saints lost to the Eagles and the Falcons lost to the Chiefs last week. The rivalry renewed. Derek Carr and the Saints had a bit of a struggle to score points last week against Philly. Prior to that game the Saints were the highest scoring offense in the NFL and then they were held to 12 points last week. Derek Carr was off by a bit and Alvin Kamara was held to under 50 yards. Atlanta had its struggle against Kansas City but had a chance to win last week. Thus sending the Chiefs to undefeated 3-0. The Falcons offense is much better at passing offense with the addition of Kirk Cousins. Atlanta's running back tandem of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson is a help as well. It feels a bit of a toss-up matchup as both teams are quite similar. I'll take the Saints based on past performances on offense. 

All-time series: Series tied 55-55

Philadelphia (2-1) @ Tampa Bay (2-1) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Eagles

The Eagles beat the Saints and the Buccaneers lost to the Broncos last week. Philadelphia had a bit of a skid against Atlanta two weeks ago. While they didn't blow out New Orleans, they did keep the highest scoring offense in the NFL to 12 points. The defense prevailed and really knocked the Saints out of tune. Saquon Barkley rebounded after a dropped pass that would've lead to a score against Atlanta as he scored two touchdowns and carried the Eagles to victory. Tampa looked really good the first two weeks of the season. Then the Broncos came into sweltering Raymond James Stadium and really knocked them around. Baker Mayfield looked mortal. The run defense kind of got smacked around as well as all the scoring that Denver did was by the run. Not also to mention that field goals helped Denver as well. It's kind of a toss-up game but I'm leaning more towards the Eagles. 

All-time series: Buccaneers lead series 12-11

Pittsburgh (3-0) @ Indianapolis (1-2) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Steelers

The Steelers beat the Chargers and the Colts beat the Bears last week. Pittsburgh has looked solid on offense. They may have found their quarterback. Justin Fields wasn't throwing darts but he was being a game manager. The offense realizes that if they put up 17 to 20 points, their defense will take care of business and hold opponents to 10 points. They're not quite the 1970's Steelers or the Super Bowl winning teams in the 2000's but they're quite unique. Indianapolis got on the winning column last week. Granted by a five point margin against Chicago. The Anthony Richardson experiment is I feel is more of a C- on the grading scale. That might be putting it lightly. The running game really bailed the Colts out last week. Jonathan Taylor had a great game. The Colts passing game will need to really put up solid drives and keep the Steelers defense on the field as much as possible. Knowing where TJ Watt is at all times will be key. If he causes havoc early, then I think the Steelers will take it. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 27-7

Washington (2-1) @ Arizona (1-2) (FOX; 4:05 pm): TW: Cardinals

The Commanders beat the Bengals and the Cardinals lost to the Lions last week. Washington saw a good game from their offense last week. Jayden Daniels only had two incompletions last week against Cincinnati. The Bengals defense isn't no slouch either despite giving up 38 points to Washington. The running game had a good game as well. If they can stay the course they should be good to go against Arizona as their defense isn't as good. The Cardinals offense really looked pedestrian against the Lions. The Lions defense is very solid. I feel this game will be a shootout if anything. I do find the Cardinals offense is a bit better than the Commanders I think. The sample size for Daniels as a passer is small as he only has two touchdowns so far. It's a real toss-up but I'll go with the Cardinals. 

All-time series: Commanders lead 77-47-2

New England (1-2) @ San Francisco (1-2) (FOX; 4:05 pm): TW: 49ers

The Patriots lost to the Jets and the 49ers lost to the Rams last week. The Pats are in a bit of a bind. Their offense is mostly based on running the ball. Thus becoming a one-dimensional team. The reason why is that their pass blocking is non-existent. One such example is that if you're a linebacker you get a hole so big that you get a free pass to hug the quarterback. It's pretty bad. Checkdowns and screens are the only way to get the ball out of the quarterback's hands. San Francisco is currently experiencing a two-game losing streak since blowing out the Jets on Monday night in Week 1. The losing streak is an effect of their injuries. The biggest one is Christian McCaffrey. The depth for the star running back has been astounding. Jordan Mason has helped out a lot and took advantage of the opportunity. I hate to say it but if the 49ers were down to a 2nd string team, I think the Patriots will still lose. I'll take the 49ers. 

All-time series: 49ers lead 9-5

Cleveland (1-2) @ Las Vegas (1-2) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Raiders

The Browns lost to the Giants and the Raiders lost to the Panthers last week. Cleveland had a bit of a letdown last week. They had a good start to the game against New York via a turnover on a kickoff and scoring a touchdown on the next play. The offense is a bit hurt but help should eventually come to the Brownies. DeShaun Watson's season has been meager. He hasn't thrown an interception since throwing two in Week 1. He has been more of a game manager at least in a way. The defense is really good so they can't be all that bad. Las Vegas has been a roller coaster of a season so far. The season had a drubbing by the Chargers, an upset against Baltimore and a blowout against Carolina who had the Red Rifle manhandle the Raiders defense. The Raiders I think have been dealing with an adjustment to Gardner Minshew at quarterback and a new plethora of running backs for them to utilize. The wide receiving corp has stayed the same. I think the loss to Carolina was a bit of a wake up call to the Raiders, I'll take them in a safe bet. 

All-time series: Raiders lead 17-10

Kansas City (3-0) @ LA Chargers (2-1) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Chiefs

The Chiefs beat the Falcons and the Chargers lost to the Steelers last week. Kansas City played a tough game against Atlanta. Their offense didn't quite look that great but they did score more points than the other team. A lot of controversy over the lack of production from Travis Kelce so far. The tight end has just eight catches for 69 yards (heheh nice). He's still under contract so I would eventually assume that he will get going. It'd be nice for the Chiefs to increase the rushing numbers a bit but Isiah Pacheco is out for a bit due to injury. Los Angeles has had a good start so far. Then the injury to Justin Herbert happened. After he left the game, the Chargers were helpless. The assumption is that Herbert won't play in this game and Taylor Heinicke will go. The sample size is very small for the folk hero Heinicke. He has some experience in playing some big games however. The Chargers will need to rediscover the running game from JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. If Taylor Heinicke can keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, then they might have a shot to win. 

All-time series: Chiefs lead 69-58-1

Buffalo (3-0) @ Baltimore (1-2) (NBC; 8:20 pm): TW: Ravens

The Bills beat the Jaguars and the Ravens beat the Cowboys last week. Buffalo is now the highest scoring offense in the league right now. They have maintained an average of 37.3 points/game. They've done it with MVP numbers for Josh Allen who has nine total touchdowns. Of course the rest of the team has four touchdowns. James Cook is taking on a bigger role of the offense. Khalil Shakir has been a solid contributor to the wide receiver corp. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have the highest average total offensive yardage with 430.3 yards/game. That's insane. The record would make you think that the Ravens are a run of the mill team. They have had some struggles in terms of closing games, such as the Raiders game and nearly blowing a 28-6 lead to Dallas. 

All-time series: Ravens lead 6-5

Tennessee (0-3) @ Miami (1-2) (ESPN; 7:30 pm): TW: Titans

The Titans lost to the Packers and the Dolphins lost to the Seahawks. Tennessee is sadly what their record shows. They haven't gotten a win so far this season. Turnovers have been the name of the game for them on offense this season. Will Levis needs to cut down on the turnovers. Levis has a decent group of wide receivers to throw to but it ain't going to be successful if he can't get the ball to them. Pass protection has also been a factor to the winless Titans. Miami has looked lost without Tua Tagovailoa. He was out last week due to a concussion he suffered in Week 2 against Buffalo. Skylar Thompson didn't do a whole lot to help the Dolphins win last week against Seattle. The run offense didn't help out either. They also need to get more production on offense obviously. If Tua actually gets to play in this game, they need to allow him to wear a bubble wrap around his uniform. I'll take the Titans in a risky bet. 

All-time series: Dolphins lead 21-19

Seattle (3-0) @ Detroit (2-1) (ABC; 8:15 pm): TW: Lions

The Seahawks beat the Dolphins and the Lions beat the Cardinals last week. The other Monday night game features an interesting matchup. Both teams are well known to each other in the regular season. As of recently the Seahawks have had the upper hand over the Lions. The Seahawks have an undefeated record but their record is a bit suspect. They beat a Denver team still finding themselves, beat a Patriots team that got blown out last week and whooped a Dolphins team without Tua. As much as I want to think that the Seahawks are legit, I just don't trust them as much as I would want to. It feels more like a step on the brakes a bit on Seattle. Despite this, I do think their offense is very balanced and I like Geno Smith not being a gun slinger. He has an offense that can back him up. The Lions have had some wrinkles along the way. Their offense hasn't yet have a dominating effort. Jared Goff hasn't had a game where he hasn't thrown an interception and has had one game where he threw over 300 yards. It is weird for him to play hero ball. The Lions defense has really kept them at a 2-1 record. I just keep waiting on the Lions to finally blossom. Maybe this game will be the one where it'll make the rest of the league fear the kitty. 

All-time series: Seahawks lead 13-5

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

Denver @ NY Jets
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Minnesota @ Green Bay
Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Jacksonville @ Houston

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

CBS Late

Kansas City @ LA Chargers
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Cleveland @ Las Vegas

Beth Mowins, Ross Tucker, Jay Feely

FOX Single 

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

New Orleans @ Atlanta

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

LA Rams @ Chicago

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

Cincinnati @ Carolina

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston

New England @ San Francisco (Late)

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

Washington @ Arizona (Late)

Chris Myers, Mark Schlereth

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024 Week 4 Maps

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Total: 34-14

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 4 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom