Wednesday, September 4, 2019

NFL 2019 Week 1 Picks

Hello readers! The wait that has existed since the first few seconds after Super Bowl LIII is nearly over. Never fear, by the time that you are reading this, the National Football League season will descend upon us like a wave of joy. The NFL is celebrating its centennial season and surely there will be a means of celebration to be had throughout the league during its season. In this post I'll talk a little bit of my thoughts on the tanking situation in Miami, a NFL 100 spotlight, and of course the picks of the Week 1 games. Let's get to work!

Tanking in Miami

The case for the Miami Dolphins to finish possibly 2-14 on the year was assured when the team traded offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Kenny Stills to the Houston Texans for high draft picks. If there was a message sent to Dolphins fans, surely the message was, we're gonna tank and hope for the best with the draft next year. First year head coach Brian Flores is going to have a tough season ahead, as well as the rest of the team.

Laremy Tunsil was a first round pick by the Dolphins in 2016. Tunsil coming out of college was considered to be a high first round draft prospect. A video surfaced of him in a gas mask while smoking a substance in a bong. The video made some teams question him and thus he dropped to #13 where the Dolphins picked him. He has played and started in 44 games in his career.

Kenny Stills was a fifth round pick by the Saints in 2013. He was picked #144th overall. He would spend two seasons in New Orleans and was traded to the Dolphins in 2015. In his career thus far he has 298 receptions, 4,138 receiving yards while accumulating 32 touchdowns.

The trade was a bold one for the Texans, whom have no general manager. Bill O'Brien, the Texans head coach and general manager, who's certainly feeling some heat in that seat made it a point to get his team some offensive line help while getting his quarterback, Deshaun Watson, a weapon in the offense. If the trade doesn't work out for Houston, you have to feel that O'Brien is out of a job.

For the Dolphins its a strange trade, you bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen to the team and you do that to them. I don't believe the Dolphins will go winless in 2019 as they do have some decent pieces in the secondary and wide receivers. It would be crazy to think that the Miami Dolphins would hold a record of being a team that had a perfect record in 1972 and a winless record in 2019. For the rest of us football fans, let's just hope that's not the case.

NFL 100: A Spotlight

Something new and different this season will be a spotlight of the last 99 seasons of the NFL. The spotlight will feature players, head coaches, teams, etc. some you've heard of, some you haven't heard of. This will take place of the "Cool Video Of The Week" feature that I have done in the past two seasons since I started doing picks.

I felt it was fitting to do something with the first week of the regular season coming upon us, to do a feature of an athlete that gave the National Football League some credibility and the league's first star, Jim Thorpe.


Before Bo Jackson and Deion Sanders made playing two sports cool, Jim Thorpe played many sports. Thorpe played baseball, football, basketball, and is most famously known for being an Olympian. He was the first Native American to win a gold medal for the United States, while competing in the decathlon in the 1912 games in Stockholm, Sweden. 

His baseball career lasted for six seasons. He played for the New York Giants, Cincinnati Reds, and Boston Braves. He achieved a lifetime batting average of .252 while compiling 176 hits, 82 runs batted in, and 3 home runs. 

When the NFL was formed in 1920 it was known as the American Professional Football Association (APFA) and Thorpe was nominally named the first president of the new league, which he served the position until 1921. The league would change its name to the National Football League in 1922. Thorpe played for the Canton Bulldogs, Cleveland Indians, Oorang Indians, Rock Island Independents, New York Giants, Tampa Cardinals and Chicago Cardinals. He would never play in a championship game but his greatness helped the fledgling APFA turn into the NFL that we know and love today. 

The Picks!

Week 1 of the NFL regular season will start in Chicago, Illinois and end in Oakland, California. The week features a Thursday night game, seven early games, five late games, a Sunday night game, and two Monday night games. FOX will carry the double-header while CBS will have the single game. No teams are on a bye week. Let's get to the picks! 

Note: CV is short for Cardinal Viking, my roommate. TW is me. 

Green Bay @ Chicago (NBC): TW: Packers; CV: Bears

The 100th season kicks off on Thursday night as two old-time rivals renew their rivalry on the grandest stage of them all. It's somewhat fitting to have these two teams play on this night instead of the New England Patriots (typically the previous Super Bowl winner got the chance to play the Opening Night game) as these two were formed right when the NFL was in its infancy in the 1920's. As for the game itself, I feel the Packers defense will be put to the test against a Bears team that looks to get back into the postseason again. I feel the Packers have an edge in the game as Aaron Rodgers has more freedom in the offense and pick apart the Bears defense.

Buffalo @ NY Jets (CBS): TW: Jets; CV: Jets

The Jets have new uniforms this season and have some new toys on offense to play with. I feel the Jets will win based off a balance of run and pass that Sam Darnold never had last season. The Bills offense could give some fits to the Jets but I'm gonna go on a whim and take the Jets in a close game. Good test for Le'Veon Bell who is coming in fresh.

Baltimore @ Miami (CBS): TW: Ravens; CV: Ravens

The AFC North champions Baltimore Ravens take on the tanking Miami Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be starting for the Dolphins and certainly if you watched last season, it could mean a hot start for him and the Dolphins but I can't think the Ravens defense will let that happen. Good game for 2nd year quarterback Lamar Jackson to get his feet wet for the season. 

Kansas City @ Jacksonville (CBS): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs

Probably one of the better match-ups in the week. The Patrick Mahomes train looks to continue putting up numbers while the Jaguars look to shut the offensive juggernaut down. Nick Foles era in Jacksonville starts in earnest. I feel the Chiefs will win if they keep the opposing offense off the field long enough to give their defense rest. That and the Chiefs are the sexy pick. 

Tennessee @ Cleveland (CBS): TW: Browns; CV: Browns

A new beginning in Cleveland as the Browns take on the Titans. I feel good with the Browns in this game as they have good players on both sides of the ball. The Titans offense just seems scrambled to me and while their defense can help out when needed, ultimately I feel the Browns will gain a W. 

Washington @ Philadelphia (FOX): TW: Eagles; CV: Eagles

I don't in general trust Case Keenum to play at a high level, especially when his offense is very poor. Philadelphia looks better on offense and certainly on defense. Good game for Carson Wentz to gain some confidence and help lead his team to a victory. Hopefully he can stay healthy for a season.

Atlanta @ Minnesota (FOX): TW: Vikings; CV: Vikings

The game will probably be a offensive showcase for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense as the Falcons defense was pretty terrible last season and I feel that will remain the same for this year. If the Vikings defense does its thing and slow Matt Ryan down, I feel the Vikes will get 1-0 on the season.

 LA Rams @ Carolina (FOX): TW: Rams; CV: Panthers

The Rams look pretty good on both sides of the ball. The Panthers on offense could do some damage but I don't know about their defense. This could very well be a trap game for the Rams as they are traveling far from Los Angeles to Raleigh. Sean McVay should have the team ready for this one. I'll take the Rams. 

Indianapolis @ LA Chargers (CBS): TW: Chargers; CV: Chargers

As far as the Colts go, I feel they will lose this game based off of the quarterback matchup. As much as I think Jacoby Brissett can put some good numbers, Philip Rivers still has the cards with some really good offensive weapons. Could be a close one. The Colts do have Marlon Mack at running back and the Chargers don't have Melvin Gordon. Could be a shootout as well.

Detroit @ Arizona (FOX): TW: Cardinals; CV: Cardinals

New quarterback, different year for the Cardinals as the Kyler Murray era begins in Arizona. If there was a few games that the Cardinals could win, this game would be it. They won't win a lot of games I feel. If the Cardinals can keep Murray upright, I feel good about this team's chances to get a win. The Lions could win too. Really a toss-up, Toilet Bowl match-up this early in the season. 

Cincinnati @ Seattle (CBS): TW: Seahawks; CV: Seahawks

Let's just say this: I trust the Seahawks on both sides of the ball more than the Cincinnati Bengals. The place will be loud as usual and with a new head coach for the Bengals, offensive miscues will be rampant. Andy Dalton will need the help that he can get if they want to sniff a win in this game. 

NY Giants @ Dallas (FOX): TW: Cowboys; CV: Cowboys

The good news is that Ezekiel Elliot was re-signed to an extension, the bad news is that he won't likely play in the game. Fortunately for the Cowboys they take on a Giants team that will likely struggle on defense. I'd be surprised if the Giants pull off a win in this game as the Cowboys still have some great weapons other than running back like Amari Cooper. I'll take my chances on Dallas.

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (FOX): TW: Buccaneers; CV: 49ers

The game is a toss-up and a pick-em according to Vegas. I will take the Buccaneers in this game mostly because its a road game for the 49ers and I feel better in the home team to get a win. I feel its also a trap game for the 49ers who have to travel four time-zones away. I don't think the Buccaneers will do a lot of winning on the season but an upset victory against the 49ers is certainly a possibility. 

Pittsburgh @ New England (NBC): TW: Patriots; CV: Patriots

The 20th season of Bill Belichek and Tom Brady begins as they take on rival Pittsburgh. I like the Patriots in the game as I feel they have more weapons on offense and I trust their defense to keep the Steelers weapons off their game. Best game of the week right here. 

Houston @ New Orleans (ESPN): TW: Saints; CV: Saints

The first of the two Monday night games features a good match-up. The two teams have great offenses, especially in the passing game. I like the home team Saints in the game and this game could be a shootout in every way. I do like the Texans defense more than the Saints defense but I'll take the Saints as it is in a loud SuperDome. 

Denver @ Oakland (ESPN): TW: Raiders; CV: Raiders

The final game of the week features a classic AFC West battle. The Antonio Brown era begins in Oakland, whether he wants to play for them or not. The Raiders on offense outside of Brown look decent enough but I feel the Raiders defense has a lot to prove to everyone. The Broncos do have a decent quarterback now with Joe Flacco. I feel the Raiders will win out by a close margin. I just hope they don't let me down like they did last season when I picked them to go to a Super Bowl, I'm a glutton for punishment, I guess.

Local TV Schedule (courtesy of 506sports.com):

CBS Single:
Kansas City @ Jacksonville
Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

FOX Early:
Atlanta @ Minnesota
Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis

FOX Late:
NY Giants @ Dallas
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

To see what game is playing in your area, check out: NFL 2019 Week 1 Maps

Cardinal Viking:
2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019:

My record: 
2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019:

Expect a recap post after the Monday night game, until then, enjoy the football!
-Tom

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