Wednesday, September 25, 2019

NFL 2019 Week 4 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming soon! There's a few decent matchups this week compared to last week but hopefully they will all be good games to watch. This post will have a NFL 100: A Spotlight and my picks to the games. Let's get to work!

NFL 100: A Spotlight

In the previous post I talked about the greatest defense I ever saw, the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. In this spotlight I'll talk about the greatest offense I've ever seen. This particular offense was one of the greatest ever, they put the vertical passing scheme to perfection, with a quarterback that had one point was stocking groceries at a Hy-Vee for a wage of $5.50/hour. With a head coach who was known for being a hothead who had also lost a Super Bowl before. I'm of course talking about the 1999 St. Louis Rams.

The 1999 Rams seemed like a team that was from a fairy tale. The team had been in Los Angeles for 48 years and then moved to St. Louis in 1995. They made an appearance in the 1989 NFC Championship Game against their rival San Francisco 49ers. They would lose the game. The team would spend the rest of their years in LA in the cellar. When they moved to St. Louis, they would see much of the same.

In 1997, the Rams hired Dick Vermeil as their next head coach. Vermeil would have some success as a coach, leading the Philadelphia Eagles to their first Super Bowl in Super Bowl XV. He would resign after the 1982 season, citing burnout. He also lead the UCLA Bruins to a Rose Bowl victory in 1975. His first two seasons in St. Louis fared no better than the previous years the franchise had.

In 1999, the Rams traded to get two quality players, Trent Green from Washington and Marshall Faulk from Indianapolis. Vermeil finally got a quarterback to work with and a running back that he desperately needed to replace Lawrence Phillips (who ended up being a bust and cut mid-1997 season). In the 1999 preseason, Green would suffer an injury that would keep him out for the rest of the season. All seemed lost for the Rams. Until his backup came along and would lead the Rams to an unprecedented season.

Kurt Warner's journey to that moment was a long one. He was an undrafted free agent in 1994 that would get a tryout with the Green Bay Packers. He was cut before the regular season started. To keep an income while awaiting a call from the NFL, Warner was stocking groceries at a Hy-Vee in Ceder Falls, Iowa. With no call, Warner got a gig playing for the Iowa Barnstormers of the Arena Football League and would lead the league in passing and touchdowns. His play would garner an offer with the Rams and he would sign a futures contract. In 1998, he was sent to play for the Amsterdam Admirals in NFL Europe, once again leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. He would return to the US and gain a spot on the Rams roster for the 1999 season, backing up Tony Banks. By 1999, he was #2 on the depth chart at quarterback. Once Trent Green was sidelined for the season, the rest was history.

In a press conference after the game, Vermeil would name Kurt Warner as their starter, stating "We will rally around Kurt Warner, and we'll play good football." The 1999 Rams were picked to finish last in most experts eyes. Lo and behold, they would shock the world.Even worse than the expansion team Cleveland Browns. 

What made the 1999 Rams special was the use of the vertical pro offensive scheme. The scheme was successful during the Don Coryell years in San Diego. It was a passing scheme that featured two wide receivers, a tight end, a fullback and a halfback. It utilized on timing and rhythm and putting receivers in motion. It forced defenses to cover the entire field, making them play more zone defense, than man coverage.

The Rams would jump right out of the gate strong, winning six of their first eight games before finishing the year at 13-3. They would put up 32.9 points/game with a total of 526 points that year, finishing 1st in the NFL, while their defense (which was arguably underrated) allowed only 15.1 points/game. Kurt Warner threw the ball for 4,353 yards for 41 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Insane numbers. Marshall Faulk would have a great year running the ball, finishing with 1,381 yards and seven touchdowns. Isaac Bruce would get 1,165 receiving yards for 12 touchdowns that season.

They would be dubbed "The Greatest Show On Turf" and in the playoffs is where the offense shined like no other. They would beat the Minnesota Vikings 49-37 in the Divsional playoff game. They would only need to score 11 points to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a score of 11-6 to advance to their first Super Bowl in 40 years as a franchise. In the Super Bowl they beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16 to win their first and only (as of 2018 NFL season) championship. The game would also be dubbed "The One Yard Short" game.

In the aftermath, Vermeil would resign as head coach and Mike Martz would take over his duties. The Rams would return to another Super Bowl in 2001 where they were the heavy favorite against the New England Patriots. They would lose the game. The Rams would never quite reach that point while in St. Louis. Kurt Warner would spend time with the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals, leading the Cardinals to their first Super Bowl in Super Bowl XLIII, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The 1999 Rams were a story like no other, with a fairy tale ending. Their place in NFL history is one for the ages. However, much like all good fairy tales, they must end.

The last bitter memory for my dad, who had been a Vikings fan since day one, would be the 1999 NFC divisional playoff against the Rams. He had some good memories and mostly bad ones being a fan for over 38 years. He would pass away a couple of months after this game in March 2000. Fortunately he never got to see the horrible 41-0 loss to the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game. Cheers dad!


Week 4 Picks

The 4th week of the NFL regular season starts in Green Bay, Wisconsin and ends in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The San Francisco 49ers and the New York Jets are on a bye week. There will be a Thursday night game, eight early games, four late games, a Sunday night game, and a Monday night game. CBS will have the doubleheader and FOX will carry the single, regional game.

Note: TW is me, CV is Cardinal Viking, my roommate

Philadelphia (1-2) @ Green Bay (3-0) (FOX/NFL Network): TW: Packers; CV: Eagles

The Eagles lost to the Lions and the Packers beat the Broncos last week. The matchup will be the Eagles wide-receivers vs the Packers defense. If the Packers can shut down the Eagles passing game, forcing them to go to their running game, Green Bay has a chance to get a victory. The Eagles defense is banged up and I trust Aaron Rodgers. Packers offense needs to play well all four quarters to get a win as well.

New England (3-0) @ Buffalo (3-0) (CBS): TW: Patriots; CV: Patriots

Both teams got wins last week as the Patriots beat the Jets and the Bills beat the Bengals. We will learn a lot about the Bills in this game, if they are a playoff contender or a pretender. Tom Brady has a great record against the Bills and I can't see that changing a whole lot in this game.

LA Chargers (1-2) @ Miami (0-3) (CBS): TW: Chargers; CV: Chargers

Both teams took losses last week as the Chargers lost to the Texans and the Dolphins lost to the Cowboys. The game itself could be a shot for the Dolphins to get a win as the Chargers haven't played particularly well in the last few weeks. I feel that the Chargers will get back on track this week by beating a team that is tanking so hard.

Oakland (1-2) @ Indianapolis (2-1) (CBS): TW: Colts; CV: Colts

The Raiders lost to the Vikings and the Colts beat the Falcons last week. Jacoby Brissett keeps getting better every week it seems. The Raiders defense is very suspect after that loss to the Vikings. If the Raiders offense can get something going against the Colts defense, they could make this interesting but I like the home team in this one.

Tennessee (1-2) @ Atlanta (1-2) (CBS): TW: Falcons; CV: Falcons

Both teams lost last week as the Titans lost to the Jaguars and the Falcons lost to the Colts. The matchup looks like a Falcons win on paper and I tend to agree with the paper. If the Falcons defense shuts down the Titans rushing attack, they should come out with a victory. I trust Matt Ryan enough to carve up the Titans defense. Especially when Julio Jones is in the lineup.

Washington (0-3) @ NY Giants (1-2) (FOX): TW: Giants; CV: Giants

The Redskins lost to the Bears and the Giants beat the Buccaneers. Daniel Jones is getting his 2nd start of his young career. Both teams have terrible defense and I feel the team that can get the ball rolling on defense can get a victory as this game could be a shootout. I feel the Giants will get a game-winning touchdown. Saquon Barkley will be out for this game and the Redskins could get a rollin' with their running game. I feel okay with picking Big Blue.

Kansas City (3-0) @ Detroit (2-0-1) (FOX): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs

Both teams got wins last week as the Chiefs beat the Ravens and the Lions beat the Eagles. The game will come down to one thing: can the Lions slow down Patrick Mahomes? If they can and can take advantage of a poor Chiefs defense, they got a shot to win. Otherwise good luck Detroit. I'm taking KC.

Cleveland (1-2) @ Baltimore (2-1) (CBS): TW: Ravens; CV: Ravens

Both teams lost last week as the Browns lost to the Rams and the Ravens lost to the Chiefs. It comes down to experience and I feel the Ravens have a bit more experience than the Browns. Both teams are really even on paper. It will be a close game by less than a touchdown but I feel the Ravens will come out of the scrum with a win.

Carolina (1-2) @ Houston (2-1) (FOX): TW: Panthers; CV: Texans

Both teams got wins last week as the Panthers beat the Cardinals and the Texans beat the Chargers. The two teams are pretty even on paper. If the Panthers can pressure DeShaun Watson they got a good shot to win the game. I feel the Panthers have an edge in running back with Christian McCaffrey. Hopefully Kyle Allen can repeat his performance from last week.

Tampa Bay (1-2) @ LA Rams (3-0) (FOX): TW: Rams; CV: Rams

The Buccaneers lost to the Giants and the Rams beat the Browns last week. Jared Goff hasn't gotten off to the start that most have expected compared to last year. Huge test for the Rams offense against a decent Buccaneers defense. I don't trust Jameis Winston to not throw an interception in the game. Rams defense will keep them out of the endzone for sure. Give me LA!

Seattle (2-1) @ Arizona (0-2-1) (FOX): TW: Seahawks; CV: Seahawks

Both teams lost last week as the Seahawks lost to the Saints and the Cardinals lost to the Panthers. I pretty much made a pact to not pick the Cardinals for a while but this game could be one of those games where the Cards have a shot to win. A small shot but something. If the Seahawks can pressure Kyler Murray then they have a great shot to win. Steep mountain for the Cardinals to win.

Jacksonville (2-1) @ Denver (0-3) (CBS): TW: Jaguars; CV: Broncos

The Jaguars got a win against the Titans and the Broncos lost to the Packers. Minshewmania is in full swing as the Jags go to Denver. Denver hasn't played well on both sides of the ball, especially their defensive front with 0 sacks. Jacksonville is 9th best in sacks allowed. If the Broncos have any sniff of a chance to win, they need to get to Gardner Minshew. Otherwise I'll take Jacksonville.

Minnesota (2-1) @ Chicago (2-1) (CBS): TW: Vikings; CV: Vikings

Both teams got wins last week as the Vikings beat the Raiders and the Bears beat the Redskins. The Vikings need Kirk Cousins to get out of his funk and play well in this game. They can't rely on the running game of Dalvin Cook, let alone be one-dimensional. It's time for Minnesota to escape the "can't win in Chicago" mindset and win on the road.

Dallas (3-0) @ New Orleans (2-1) (NBC): TW: Cowboys; CV: Cowboys

Both teams got wins last week as the Cowboys beat the Dolphins and the Saints beat the Seahawks. The Saints will need a great start from Teddy Bridgewater to win this game. It's a steep mountain to ask for a guy but I feel the Cowboys will pull off a victory on the road.

Cincinnati (0-3) @ Pittsburgh (0-3) (ESPN): TW: Steelers; CV: Steelers

Both teams lost last week as the Bengals lost to the Bills and the Steelers lost to the 49ers. The two teams are winless so far in the 2019 campaign so certainly one of them has to win this game. I feel the Steelers have the chops to win it as the Bengals are just banged up on both sides of the ball and not very good either. I'll take Mason Rudolph to finish week 4 with a win.

Local TV Schedule (courtesy of 506sports.com, coverage subject to change):

FOX Single:
Kansas City @ Detroit
Kevin Burkhardt, Charles Davis

CBS Single:
New England @ Buffalo
Ian Eagle, Dan Fouts

CBS Late:
Minnesota @ Chicago
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

For more information on which game is being played in your area, check out: NFL 2019: Week 4 Maps

Cardinal Viking:
2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2

2019:
Week 1: 11-4-1
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Overall: 31-16-1


My record: 
2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2

2019:
Week 1: 12-3-1
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 11-5
Overall: 33-14-1

See you guys on Monday night after the game for the Week 4 Recap. Enjoy the games!
-Tom

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