Thursday, September 28, 2023

NFL 2023 Week 4 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action has come to us yet again. With three weeks of play in the books, we are starting to see somewhat of what teams look like contenders and then the pretenders. At the start of week 3 there were numerous teams that had an undefeated record going into the week. In the aftermath of it, only three teams with no defeat: Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. For this week, I'll keep an eye on the Lions-Packers, Ravens-Browns, Dolphins-Bills and the Commanders-Eagles matchups. In this post, I'll do a rant of the week, a week 4 preview, week 4 picks and the early and late TV broadcast pairings for CBS and FOX. Let's get to work!

NFL Rant of the Week

Broncos head coach Sean Payton last week was asked about how he thought about his team's 70-20 loss to the Dolphins. While most of the questions were earnest in how he thought his team handled the drubbing, the reporters probably already knew the answer to it. If you were a head coach and your team was blown out, how would you even handle it? I feel the answer is you can't. Despite the point differential, it's just one game. Granted that the Broncos are 0-3 to start 2023. 

Week 4 Preview


The fourth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Green Bay, Wisconsin and finish up in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Week 4 will have a 16-game slate where all 32 teams will play. No teams are on a bye this week. The week features a Thursday night game, a Sunday morning game, nine early games, three late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. FOX will handle the doubleheader and CBS will have the single, regional game this week. Let's get to the picks!

Week 4 Picks


Note: TW is me and CV is Cardinal Viking, my former roommate. All gametimes are in US Eastern.

Detroit (2-1) @ Green Bay (2-1) (Amazon; 8:15 pm): TW: Lions; CV: Lions
Both teams got wins last week as the Lions beat the Falcons and the Packers beat the Saints. Detroit's offense looked like the offense of a few years. The last time these two teams met was Aaron Rodgers last game as a Packer. Green Bay's offense got off to a slow start against New Orleans. If they want to do well in this game, they're going to have to score not being down by 10 points in the game. Detroit won't likely give them that luxury. I think the Lions have a lot going for them so I'll take them in this one, assuming they don't shoot themselves in the foot.

Atlanta (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2) (ESPN+; 9:30 am): TW: Jaguars; CV: Jaguars
Both teams lost last week as the Falcons lost to the Lions and the Jaguars lost to the Texans. An early morning game that will include a Toy Story theme to it on ESPN+. Atlanta had looked good somewhat early in this season with their running game. Desmond Ridder has had some growing pains of course but their team has been kind of interesting to watch. Jacksonville has had two straight losses. While I do think that their offense has some of the blame but the defense really took a nap against Houston. They're going to need to play better by getting off the field quicker for Trevor Lawrence. I'll take the Jags.

Cincinnati (1-2) @ Tennessee (1-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Bengals; CV: Titans 
The Bengals beat the Rams and the Titans lost to the Browns last week. Cincy finally got a win last week. Granted it was a close win. We seemed to learn a bit more about their team. Their identity seems to be a good defensive team that plays physical football. The jury is still out on their offense. Tennessee is a weird team. Their only win was a comeback win against the Chargers and they only put up 94 total yards against Cleveland last week. They're going to need to play better by getting more than 94 obviously. Ryan Tannehill has been kind of a letdown this season. I'll take the Bengals as I don't trust the Titans.

Baltimore (2-1) @ Cleveland (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Ravens; CV: Ravens
The Ravens lost to the Colts and the Browns beat the Titans last week. You could say that the loss last week to the Colts was a fluke but I'm not sure that you can be that naïve. Indy did enough to go down the field and have their kicker hit field goals. They get to go up against baby brother in the Browns this week. Their record against them have proven otherwise that Baltimore has dominated the Browns. Cleveland has been kind of fun to watch this week. Despite the loss of power runner Nick Chubb, the Browns still had success in running the ball with outside runner Jerome Ford. Cleveland has put up 51 points in their two home games. Despite this praise I question whether if the Browns can achieve the impeccable task of defeating the Ravens. I don't trust them.

Denver (0-3) @ Chicago (0-3) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Broncos; CV: Broncos
Both teams lost last week as the Broncos lost to the Dolphins and the Bears lost to the Chiefs. Denver got badly humbled against Miami. Humbled is a bit of an under exaggeration. Their defense really took a dump in the last two games giving away 105 points. They're going to need to clean up their sloppy play and give their offense to play two-dimensional game. Chicago is kind of a mess in their own way. To give up 41 points to the Chiefs is somewhat of an expectation. Their offense hasn't done its job lately and unfortunately most of their woes is going to go to their quarterback Justin Fields. This game seems like an early definition of the "Toilet Bowl" and I would agree with myself. Fortunately someone will have to win this game or tie it. Either way someone will get their winning percentage up a bit. 

LA Rams (1-2) @ Indianapolis (2-1) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Rams; CV: Rams
The Rams lost to the Bengals and the Colts beat the Ravens last week. An intriguing matchup in Indy. The Rams have had some off games so far in 2023. They really had a shot to win against the 49ers but they just let the Niners have their way with them. Last week they had one of their worst games in the Matt Stafford era. Indy has somehow won two games when it was somewhat expected for them to lose a fair portion of their games. They've gotten it done with Gardner Minshew the last few weeks. They could very well play well enough to pull off a win. Despite this, I still kind of like the fact that the Rams offense has a new weapon in Puka Nacua. I'll take the Rams on the road. 

Miami (3-0) @ Buffalo (2-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Bills; CV: Dolphins
The Dolphins beat the Broncos and the Bills beat the Commanders last week. The matchup that might decide the fate of the AFC East and it comes in Week 4. Miami has looked unstoppable so far in 2023, with last week's 70-20 win over the Broncos as an example. They look unstoppable but they can be slowed down by a good defense. If the Bills can make Tua Tagovailoa uncomfortable in the pocket and contain the pocket then they have a good shot to bring the Dolphins down a peg. Buffalo is still the class of the division and unless Miami beats them they will stay that way. Miami seems to be the sexy pick but Buffalo's offense is just as good and they can keep Tua off the field. 

Minnesota (0-3) @ Carolina (0-3) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Vikings; CV: Panthers
Both teams lost last week as the Vikings lost to the Chargers and the Panthers lost to the Seahawks. A battle of the winless in Carolina. Minnesota should be the better team so far this season but they somehow let themselves get to a situation where the score is one score against them. Whether it be down by a decent margin late in the game, they decide to make a push to win it. Carolina is kind of in the same position. I like their running game to put up some good yardage but they have a defense that can give up points. I think the Vikings have a shot to win but they need to really want to win.

Pittsburgh (2-1) @ Houston (1-2) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Steelers; CV: Texans
Both teams won last week as the Steelers beat the Raiders and the Texans beat the Jaguars. Pittsburgh seems to have find somewhat of an identity. To be a defensive team that can play some solid passing. Their weakness has been their running game. Houston got an upset win against the Jaguars. Their passing game really made some strides with CJ Stroud. He has yet to throw an interception so far in 2023. Keys to win for the Steelers is trying to get CJ Stroud uncomfortable and make his running game beat you. If the Steelers can contain them they should do well. 

Tampa Bay (2-1) @ New Orleans (2-1) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Buccaneers; CV: Saints
Both teams lost last week as the Buccaneers lost to the Eagles and the Saints lost to the Packers. We've had somewhat of a limited sample size for both teams. The Buccaneers offense didn't do much against Philadelphia which is granted as they are supposedly pretty good. It feels like Tampa is the more battle-hardened team. New Orleans might've taken that moniker if they defeated Green Bay. When you're up by 17 and shutting out said team, it feels that you should win said game. Both teams will learn about each other and this game might prove who is the better team in the NFC South. I'll take the Bucs in a risky pick.

Washington (2-1) @ Philadelphia (3-0) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Eagles; CV: Eagles
The Commanders lost to the Bills and the Eagles beat the Buccaneers last week. Washington kind of fell back to earth a bit after the humbling loss to Buffalo. Their offense gave up the ball too much and didn't stay on the field for too long. If they want to win they need to keep Jalen Hurts staying put in his own bench. Washington has a running game that can function well enough but to go against the Eagles defensive line. I'm not sure. Philly seems to be the class of the division as well as an argument for the NFC. Their offense, I feel, hasn't played their best game so far this season. They've put up enough to remain in games and win them but I feel the offense can put up 40 points easily if they tried. I'll take the Eagles in an old school NFC East rivalry. 

Las Vegas (1-2) @ LA Chargers (1-2) (CBS; 4:05 pm): TW: Chargers; CV: Chargers
The Raiders lost to the Steelers and the Chargers beat the Vikings last week. An intriguing matchup in the late window as the Raiders take on the Chargers. The Raiders lost a close game against the Steelers that they had a chance to win. Had Josh McDaniels try and go for it on 4th down instead of the field goal. A little bit of heat came off of Brandon Staley's seat. Don't get me wrong, that seat has to be a bit hot. The Chargers defense hasn't lived up to the moniker but safe to say their offense has kept them in games. Los Angeles seems to always play well against other teams but not against the Raiders for some odd reason. They have a chance to erase that. I'll take the Chargers.

Arizona (1-2) @ San Francisco (3-0) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: 49ers; CV: 49ers
Both teams got wins last week as the Cardinals beat the Cowboys and the 49ers beat the Giants. Arizona got a big win against the Cowboys in an upsetting fashion. San Francisco has just been dominating thus far in 2023. Definitely giving the Eagles a run for "who runs the NFC" conversation. Joshua Dobbs has yet to throw an interception in this game and they do possess a decent running game. Their defense has been at times good and bad. San Francisco would have to fall off a cliff to lose this game. Forcing Joshua Dobbs to beat you would have to be the defensive mindset for the Niners in this game. San Fran is favored by 14 in this game but I feel this game could be closer than that. Maybe by 10. 

New England (1-2) @ Dallas (2-1) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Cowboys; CV: Cowboys 
The Patriots beat the Jets and the Cowboys lost to the Cardinals last week. Marquee game for FOX as New England makes the rare trip to Dallas. New England may have saved their season to avoid the dreaded 0-3 mark. The Patriots defense is definitely elite as their mere presence made Jets quarterback Zach Wilson look and feel like a 3rd or 4th stringer. New England's offense has been kind of the opposite. Some things that they did last week were good, while most of it was not so much. Dallas has played well enough to get to a 2-0 mark but faltered a lot against Arizona. They made uncharacteristic mistakes. They deservedly lost that game. This feels like a trying game for the Patriots to win as the defense will be on the field a lot in this game. That former Cowboy Ezekiel Elliott and teammate Rhamondre Stevenson will need to put forth a good game to keep Dak Prescott off the field. I think its a tough decision but I'll take the Cowboys. Did I also mention that Ezekiel Elliott makes his return to Dallas? I didn't... weird. 

Kansas City (2-1) @ NY Jets (1-2) (NBC; 8:20 pm): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Bears and the Jets lost to the Patriots last week. Oh god, NBC must've picked the short end of the straw this matchup. If Aaron Rodgers was still playing it might be a good game to watch. Sadly with Rodgers' Achilles injury it won't be the case. The Zach Wilson might be over as the quarterback has looked lost out there and unsure of himself. Enough for the Jets fans to shout out boo birds. Kansas City seems to be getting back to being the team that dominates teams with their offense and solid defense. I wouldn't say that the Jets are slouch but their defense is good. Despite this, I'll take the Chiefs in a heartbeat. 

Seattle (2-1) @ NY Giants (1-2) (ABC; 8:15 pm): TW: Seahawks; CV: Seahawks
The Seahawks beat the Panthers and the Giants lost to the 49ers last week. Seattle's offense has done good with both their passing and running games. Kenneth Walker has looked good and Geno Smith hasn't reverted back to his old self. The Giants offense has been kind of the opposite. Especially when head coach Brian Daboll is an offensive minded coach. New York will have some time off to get their heads on straight. The health of Saquon Barkley is in question yet for this game. There is a chance that he might play. Barkley is still dealing with a high-ankle sprain. I feel the Seahawks could have some lax in play due to the jet lag traveling from the west coast to the east coast. It feels like a toss-up but I'll take the Seahawks. 

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings


Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings.

CBS Single

Miami @ Buffalo
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Baltimore @ Cleveland
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Denver @ Chicago
Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Matt Ryan

Pittsburgh @ Houston
Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers (Late)
Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

FOX Early

Washington @ Philadelphia
Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston

Cincinnati @ Tennessee
Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth

LA Rams @ Indianapolis
Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Chris Myers, Robert Smith

Minnesota @ Carolina
 Alex Faust, Brady Quinn

FOX Late

New England @ Dallas
Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olson

Arizona @ San Francisco
Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2023: Week 4 Maps


Records


Cardinal Viking:

2023: 
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8

Total: 28-20

2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 151-104-1
2020: 163-92-1
2021: 167-104-1
2022: 157-112-2

My record: 

2023:
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 11-5

Total: 31-17

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1 
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 4 Recap post! Enjoy the games!
-Tom

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