NFL 2023 Week 14 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming up on us yet again! Week 14 is here and with it brings us just five more weeks of regular season play before the NFL's second season starts. Teams are starting to show their mettle and making a run to the playoffs while others are just playing out the season to get into the offseason. In this week's picks post, I'll do the latest playoff picture, the Week 14 preview and picks as well as the Early and Late TV Broadcast pairings. Let's get to work!

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 14

With five weeks left of regular season play the picture is starting to show some clarity but it is a bit muddled. At least one team in the field won't be playing it at all past week 18. For starters, let's look at the AFC

Seeding

1st seed: Miami Dolphins (9-3)

2nd seed: Baltimore Ravens (9-3)

3rd seed: Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)

4th seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)

5th seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)

6th seed: Cleveland Browns (7-5)

7th seed: Indianapolis Colts (7-5)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups 

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Cleveland @ Kansas City

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville

In the Hunt

Houston (7-5), Denver (6-6), Cincinnati (6-6), Buffalo (6-6), LA Chargers (5-7), Las Vegas (5-7), NY Jets (4-8), Tennessee (4-8), New England (2-10)

Miami is ahead of Baltimore based on conference record. Kansas City is ahead of Jacksonville because of head-to-head record. Cleveland is ahead of Indianapolis based on head-to-head record. Pittsburgh is ahead of Cleveland based on division record. The Steelers are ahead of the Colts based on common games record. A lot of tiebreakers in the AFC. Let's look at the NFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)

2nd seed: San Francisco 49ers (9-3)

3rd seed: Detroit Lions (9-3)

4th seed: Atlanta Falcons (6-6)

5th seed: Dallas Cowboys (9-3)

6th seed: Minnesota Vikings (6-6)

7th seed: Green Bay Packers (6-6)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Minnesota @ Detroit

Dallas @ Atlanta

In the Hunt

LA Rams (6-6), Seattle (6-6), Tampa Bay (5-7), New Orleans (5-7), NY Giants (4-8), Chicago (4-8), Washington (4-9), Arizona (3-10)

Better Luck Next Year

Carolina (1-11)

San Francisco is ahead of Detroit based on conference record. Minnesota is ahead of Green Bay based on head-to-head record. Minnesota is ahead of Los Angeles based on conference record. A bit interesting to keep an eye on the NFC. If the Eagles lose to the Cowboys on Sunday night, all hell breaks loose in the NFC. 

Week 14 Preview

The fourteenth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and finishes in Miami, Florida. It will feature a 15-game slate where 30 teams will play. Teams on a bye this week are the Arizona Cardinals and the Washington Commanders. The week features: a Thursday night game, seven early games, three late games, a Sunday night game and two Monday night games. FOX will have the single, regional game and CBS will have the doubleheader this week. Let's get to the picks!

Week 14 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me and CV is Cardinal Viking, my former roommate.

New England (2-10) @ Pittsburgh (7-5) (Amazon; 8:15 pm): TW: Steelers; CV: Steelers

The Patriots lost to the Chargers and the Steelers lost to the Cardinals last week. The week starts with a meager game in the AFC. New England comes into this game with one of the worst seasons in the Bill Belichick era. They have 10 losses and the most that the Patriots have lost to in that era is 11 (back in 2000 during Bill Belichick's first season as a head coach). The Patriots defense is doing their best. The offense makes you just wish you could revert your eyes and watch paint dry. Pittsburgh has had its issues with offense as well. There is a chance that Kenny Pickett won't be playing in this game so the Steelers might swing it over to Mitchell Trubisky. New England will likely give Bailey Zappe the nod again to start. At least he didn't toss an interception last week. I think the home team will take it. 

Detroit (9-3) @ Chicago (4-8) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Lions; CV: Lions

The Lions beat the Saints and the Bears had a bye last week. Detroit and Chicago meet again for the 2nd time this season. The last time these two teams met, the Bears had a lead with four minutes to go. Detroit was lucky to get the win. They have gotten it done this season with their offense with a good defense to match. It helps that Dan Campbell isn't afraid to take risks and play aggressive football. Chicago hasn't had much success. Their offense has been a mess and their defense hasn't done much better. While I do think the Bears are a better team with Justin Fields, I think the Lions are a bit too much. 

Carolina (1-11) @ New Orleans (5-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Saints; CV: Saints

The Panthers lost to the Buccaneers and the Saints lost to the Lions last week. Carolina is a dumpster fire of a dumpster fire. The offense can’t score points and the defense can’t really stop anyone. They are just playing out this season. New Orleans has a shot to stay in the playoff contention but they have to win out every game the rest of the way. The run game got something going against Detroit but the defense couldn’t find a way to win. I’ll go with New Orleans. 

Houston (7-5) @ NY Jets (4-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Texans; CV: Texans

The Texans beat the Broncos and the Jets lost to the Falcons last week. The game feels like a tale of two opposites. The expectations for the Texans going into the season were meager. If you said that they would reach to 7-5 at this time of the season, I feel most people would've said you're crazy. New York on the other hand, had some great expectations going into the season. Aaron Rodgers achilles tendon snapping was the derailer in what has become a de-railed season for the Jets. Granted the Jets are still the Jets. Maybe a part of me could see that the Texans stumble a bit in this game but I feel its a general risk that is small. I'll take Houston. 

Indianapolis (7-5) @ Cincinnati (6-6) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Colts; CV: Bengals

The Colts beat the Titans and the Bengals beat the Jaguars last week. Indy has had a tough road to journey through this season. They are battle tested and have scored more points than they have allowed. The margin of error for them is small. The Colts are 5-1 on the road this year. Cincinnati's margin for error is small as well as one loss might spell doom for them in the tough AFC North. They're down but not out yet. I think both teams really need to watch out for ball protection in this game. The Bengals somehow squeaked by the Jaguars. I'm not sure who will win exactly but I like the road team. 

Jacksonville (8-4) @ Cleveland (7-5) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Browns; CV: Jaguars

The Jaguars lost to the Bengals and the Browns lost to the Rams last week. Jacksonville really missed an opportunity to solidify themselves as a contender for the #1 seed in the AFC. Along with that pain, they might not have their quarterback Trevor Lawrence in this game due to a right ankle injury. If he doesn't play in this game, they will have to lean on the throwing arm of CJ Beathard. I don't question Beathard's ability to play, I'm just not sure if he can play well against the Browns defense. Cleveland got a good outing from Joe Flacco. I feel the former Raven will get a bit better as the weeks go on. We'll learn a bit more about how well he can play against a good defense. I like the Browns by a field goal. 

LA Rams (6-6) @ Baltimore (9-3) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Ravens; CV: Rams

The Rams beat the Browns and the Ravens had a bye last week. Los Angeles is looking to do something that hasn't been done in a while. Baltimore has an unblemished record against NFC teams in the regular season. They have about as much of a shot as the Lions and Seahawks have had this season. Surely the rest of the AFC is watching this game and seeing if the Ravens fall. Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense has gotten better in recent weeks and have a chance to get into the playoffs wild card. Baltimore will be rested. They have a chance to really solidify themselves and keep the pressure on Miami for the conference's #1 seed. I'll stick to the NFC dominating Ravens. 

Tampa Bay (5-7) @ Atlanta (6-6) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Falcons; CV: Buccaneers

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers and the Falcons beat the Jets last week. A huge game in the crazy NFC South. It is just about as wide open as last year's iteration of the NFC South. Tampa got off of a rough skid of losses and have a chance to get back into the playoff consideration group. Baker Mayfield can be a good quarterback when he has to be. Atlanta has a quarterback that can be like that as well. Desmond Ridder has been a mixed bag. I feel if the Falcons lose like the way that they do, they just should call it a year and hibernate down south. I'd like to see Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier get back into being the tandem that we expect them to be. I'll go with Atlanta. 

Seattle (6-6) @ San Francisco (9-3) (FOX; 4:05 pm): TW: 49ers; CV: 49ers

The Seahawks lost to the Cowboys and the 49ers beat the Eagles last week. Seattle had been looking good for a portion of the season. Then their tough schedule came and hit them hard. The Geno Smith version of 2023 has been a bit of a disappointment compared to the 2022 version. Seattle has also been dealing with injuries and not solid defense. It won't get easier with their rival 49ers. San Francisco had gotten off to a good start then had a three-game losing streak and then made a rebound effort. If there was any doubt that they are a great team was destroyed last week when they came and not only beat Philadelphia, they destroyed them. San Francisco would have to fall off a cliff to lose this game. 

Minnesota (6-6) @ Las Vegas (5-7) (FOX: 4:05 pm): TW: Raiders; CV: Vikings

The Vikings had a bye and the Raiders had a bye as well last week. Minnesota had gotten off to a rough start but then found themselves getting to above .500 football. Losses to Denver and Chicago have brought them back down to a 6-6 record. Minnesota has had its tough times as Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. Joshua Dobbs has been kind of a savior for the Vikings but the Chicago game was an exception. He wasn't that great. Las Vegas will have a tough time getting into the playoffs at the moment. They would have to win out to get in and have some luck their way. Las Vegas will get some more reps and time with Aidan O'Connell who can possibly lead the Raiders to the promised land. I have confidence that the Raiders defense can beat up the Vikings offensive line. If Maxx Crosby can't be stopped, it might be a long day for the Vikings. 

Buffalo (6-6) @ Kansas City (8-4) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs

The Bills had a bye and the Chiefs lost to the Packers last week. Allen-Mahomes V! The 2023 iteration of the quarterback duel has both the Bills and Chiefs coming off tough losses. Buffalo had lost the other week to the Eagles in heartbreaking fashion. The Chiefs lost to what possibly might be a win or loss in Green Bay. Controversy ensues in the NFL I suppose. Buffalo's offense has gotten back on track as of late since the firing of Ken Dorsey. It's the Bills defense that scratches my head. Kansas City's lack to the attention to details has costed them in big games. Drops have been a part of it. They would have leads in games but then falter at the end of them. All this makes this game an intriguing matchup. I'll give the nod to the Chiefs. 

Denver (6-6) @ LA Chargers (5-7) (CBS; 4:25 pm): TW: Chargers; CV: Chargers

The Broncos lost to the Texans and the Chargers beat the Patriots last week. Remember when Denver had a 1-5 record and it looked like Nathaniel Hackett might have the last laugh. Yeah that feels like centuries ago. Denver has since went 5-1 during that stretch. Both sides of the ball got their heads out of the collective sand and played football. Los Angeles is in a dire situation. They need to make the playoffs and at least win a game in the postseason to possibly save head coach Brandon Staley's job. Anything less than that might make his seat a bit hot. Let alone scorching hot. The Chargers have the capabilities to play well on offense that can keep them in games. I just don't trust enough of their defense to keep opponents out of the endzone. Denver could possibly run away with this game based on their run game and ball control capabilities of Russell Wilson. I like the Chargers just a bit more. 

Philadelphia (10-2) @ Dallas (9-3) (NBC; 8:20 pm): TW: Eagles; CV: Cowboys

The Eagles lost to the 49ers and the Cowboys beat the Seahawks last week. A big game in the NFC on Sunday night! The loss to the 49ers kind of put Philly in a bit of a peculiar situation. If the 49ers win and the Eagles lose again, San Francisco gains the #1 seed. While a loss at worst would put them in the 4th seed, I am a bit concerned with the Eagles. During last week's game, Jalen Hurts looked a bit shaken up which might give a raise of concern to any Eagles fan. I do feel that they can win with him but at all cost, he needs to be protected. Dallas looks like a team that might overtake them. The Dallas offense is quite legit with a plethora of pass catchers and some good numbers with their running backs. I think the Eagles will find a way to win.

Green Bay (6-6) @ NY Giants (4-8) (ABC; 8:15 pm): TW: Packers; CV: Packers

The Packers beat the Chiefs and the Giants had a bye last week. One of two games on Monday night. The Packers come into this game with a bit of a hot streak winning three straight games. Their offense has been slowly turning it around. The arm of Jordan Love has been the most improving with their offense. It would be nice for the Pack to run the ball a bit more but Aaron Jones has seen his season spent mostly on the injury part. New York has had a rough season with their offense being about as inept as possible. The Giants barely put up enough points to win against New England a few weeks ago but a win is a win. I think the Packers will take it. 

Tennessee (4-8) @ Miami (9-3) (ESPN; 8:15 pm): TW: Dolphins; CV: Dolphins

The Titans lost to the Colts and the Dolphins beat the Commanders last week. Tennessee has had a bit of a rough go of it this season. Will Levis has been a bit of a mixed results in the Music City. He's looked solid at times and then not so great. The defense is playing as well as it could but I feel its the offense that's somewhat of an issue. Miami hasn't had a whole lot of issues this season. With Tua Tagovailoa still upright the Dolphins offense continues to do its thing on the field. I think the Dolphins will take it. 

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati

Tom McCarthy, James Lofton, Jay Feely

Jacksonville @ Cleveland

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Houston @ NY Jets

Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

CBS Late

Buffalo @ Kansas City

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Denver @ LA Chargers

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Matt Ryan

FOX Single

LA Rams @ Baltimore

Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston

Detroit @ Chicago

Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth

Carolina @ New Orleans

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

Minnesota @ Las Vegas (Late)

Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez

Seattle @ San Francisco (Late)

Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olson

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2023 Maps: Week 14

Records

Cardinal Viking:

2023: 
Week 1: 10-6

Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 8-8

Week 4: 13-3
Week 5: 6-8

Week 6: 9-6

Week 7: 4-9

Week 8: 10-6

Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 6-8

Week 11: 7-7

Week 12: 9-7

Week 13: 9-4

Total: 109-84

2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 151-104-1
2020: 163-92-1
2021: 167-104-1
2022: 157-112-2

My record: 

2023:
Week 1: 9-7

Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 11-5

Week 4: 14-2

Week 5: 7-7

Week 6: 8-7

Week 7: 5-8

Week 8: 10-6

Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 7-7

Week 11: 11-3

Week 12: 8-8

Week 13: 9-4

Total: 119-74

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 14 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom