Thursday, December 21, 2023

NFL 2023 Week 16 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again! With three weeks left of the regular season, there are teams trying to make that home stretch to the finish line to that illustrious playoff ticket. In this post I will do a little "NFL Christmas" where I figure out what each team is getting this year. I will also do a Week 16 playoff picture, Week 16 preview and picks, as well as the Early & Late Game TV Broadcasting pairings. A lot to do so let's get to work!

NFL Christmas: 2023 edition

With Christmas coming this weekend I got word that Santa has released what each team is going to be getting for Christmas this year. At least this is what the big man sent to me, I am not sure if he has something different in store for the other teams. This is what at least he sent to me, don't shoot the messenger. 

Arizona Cardinals: James Conner getting new life in Arizona. 

Atlanta Falcons: not blowing leads in games for the rest in 2023. 

Baltimore Ravens: a running back that will run for 100 yards/game

Buffalo Bills: maybe a home playoff game. 

Carolina Panthers: a new head coach that David Tepper likes and will keep for a while. 

Chicago Bears: a new lease in Soldier Field. 

Cincinnati Bengals: a new bubblewrap for Joe Burrow. 

Cleveland Browns: a way out to get out of 

Dallas Cowboys: a 4K video copy of the Super Bowl XXX highlights. 

Denver Broncos: A "Broncos Country, Let's Ride" single parody of "Jiggy With it"

Detroit Lions: a home playoff win for the first time in 28 years. 

Green Bay Packers: a good wide receiver for Jordan Love to throw to. 

Houston Texans: An insurance policy for CJ Stroud. 

Indianapolis Colts: Jim Irsay curbing his spending habits to buy Jonathan Taylor a Fender guitar. 

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence getting a year supply of Head and Shoulders. 

Kansas City Chiefs: Free home and auto bundles for the whole team. 

Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce getting the head coach tag. 

Los Angeles Chargers: Maybe Bill Belichick or some blue chip head coach. 

Los Angeles Rams: a playoff berth

Miami Dolphins: A home playoff game in 20+ years. 

Minnesota Vikings: An indestructible version of Kirk Cousins. 

New England Patriots: A box set of 2001 to 2019 Patriots season highlight videos. 

New Orleans Saints: some gumbo and shrimp for Derek Carr. 

New York Giants: a year supply of Italian food for Tommy DeVito 

New York Jets: a new Achilles for Aaron Rodgers (he might've asked for it back in September)

Philadelphia Eagles: A Super Bowl championship (didn't specify if it was last year runner-up or this year runner-up/champion)

Pittsburgh Steelers: a losing season for Mike Tomlin (he's due). 

San Francisco 49ers: A healthy team for the playoffs. 

Seattle Seahawks: gift cards to the fish market in Seattle

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tom Brady statue outside of Raymond James Stadium. 

Tennessee Titans: a lump of coal for wearing the Houston Oilers uniforms. 

Washington Commanders: you don't really get anything, you got a new owner already. 

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 16


With three weeks of regular season play left, there's a few teams that have stamped their playoff ticket. At least one has stamped a ticket for the top four seeds as they won a division. While there's a few teams that got their playoff ticket revoked. Let's look at the AFC.

Seeding

1st seed: Baltimore Ravens (11-3) (clinched playoff spot)
2nd seed: Miami Dolphins (10-4)
3rd seed: Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
4th seed: Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
5th seed: Cleveland Browns (9-5)
6th seed: Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
7th seed: Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Indianapolis @ Miami
Cincinnati @ Kansas City
Cleveland @ Jacksonville

In the Hunt

Houston (8-6), Buffalo (8-6), Pittsburgh (7-7), Denver (7-7), Las Vegas (6-8), LA Chargers (5-9)

Better Luck Next Year

Tennessee (5-9), NY Jets (5-9), New England (3-11)

Jacksonville is ahead of Indianapolis and Houston based on head-to-head record. Cincinnati is ahead of Indianapolis and Buffalo based on head-to-head record. Houston is ahead of Buffalo based on conference record. A bit entertaining in the AFC, especially in the AFC South if Jacksonville's collapse continues. Let's look at the NFC.

Seeding

1st seed: San Francisco 49ers (11-3) (clinched NFC West)
2nd seed: Dallas Cowboys (10-4) (clinched playoff berth)
3rd seed: Detroit Lions (10-4)
4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
5th seed: Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) (clinched playoff berth)
6th seed: Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
7th seed: Los Angeles Rams (7-7)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

LA Rams @ Dallas
Minnesota @ Detroit
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay

In the Hunt

New Orleans (7-7), Seattle (6-7), Atlanta (6-8), Green Bay (6-8), NY Giants (5-9), Chicago (5-9)

Better Luck Next Year

Washington (4-10), Arizona (3-11), Carolina (2-12)

Dallas is ahead of Detroit based on conference record. Dallas is ahead of Philadelphia based on conference record. Minnesota is ahead of the Rams and Saints based on conference record. Seems like a pattern here. A few playoff spots clinched in the NFC. 

Week 16 Preview


The Sixteenth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Inglewood, California and finishes up in Santa Clara, California. The week will feature a 16-game slate where all 32 teams will play. No teams are on a bye this week. Week 16 includes a Thursday night game, two Saturday games, six early games, three late games, a Sunday night game and three Monday games. FOX will have the doubleheader while CBS will have the single, regional game this week. Let's get to the picks!

Week 16 Picks


Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me and CV is Cardinal Viking, my former roommate.


New Orleans (7-7) @ LA Rams (7-7) (Amazon; 8:15 pm): TW: Rams; CV: Rams
The Saints beat the Giants and the Rams beat the Commanders last week. Week 16 begins with a big matchup in the NFC playoff picture. New Orleans got some momentum and beat a Giants team with a lot of things going for them. You have to feel good if you're the Saints. Their offense is starting to turn into the offense that we expected earlier in the season, they had big hits in that game as well. The Rams are probably one of the more intriguing teams in the NFC. They have the offense that can put together some deal in balance in pass and run and a defense that can help win games. The Rams offensive weapons I feel will cause havoc in the Saints secondary. I'll take the Rams. 

Cincinnati (8-6) @ Pittsburgh (7-7) (NBC; 4:30 pm): TW: Bengals; CV: Bengals
The Bengals beat the Vikings and the Steelers lost to the Colts last week. The first of two games on the NBC family networks. The Bengals come into this game having a successful season with a huge win against the Vikings. Huge in keeping their playoff hopes alive. Pittsburgh has been a team in steep decline since they had a 7-4 record. The wheels kind of fell off when Kenny Pickett got injured. I would be leaning more towards the Bengals but somehow the Steelers are their kryptonite. For some odd reason the Bengals play worse than playing any other team. I still like the Bengals in the matchup but I'm kind of iffy. 

Buffalo (8-6) @ LA Chargers (-) (Peacock; 8:00 pm): TW: Bills; CV: Bills
The Bills beat the Cowboys and the Chargers lost to the Raiders last week. Buffalo has been playing well since their bye week. The lone hiccup has been been the game against the Eagles. Had Gabe Davis turned around and went to where the ball was at, the Bills might be at 9-5 right now. The Chargers finally got rid of Brandon Staley after the Raiders hung 63 points on them. The most in franchise history. Easton Stick will get the start again. I am not sure how well the guy can play in not so blowout situations but if he can play well in another start, maybe there might be a QB controversy in Los Angeles. I'll take the hot Bills. 

Detroit (10-4) @ Minnesota (7-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Lions; CV: Lions
The Lions beat the Broncos and the Vikings lost to the Bengals last week. A big game in the NFC North. The Lions have been playing well this season and one obstacle in the way for them: the Vikings. They have the capabilities to compete and win teams in their division. If they can win at least one game against their rivals, they can have the capabilities to win anywhere. The Vikings have been having a weird season. They lose Kirk Cousins, the rise and fall of Joshua Dobbs and somehow Nick Mullens has been playing like a decent start. The Vikings missed an opportunity to be in a solid position to be two games out against these Lions. I'll take the Lions. 

Cleveland (9-5) @ Houston (-) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Browns; CV: Browns
The Browns beat the Bears and the Texans beat the Oilers Titans last week. Cleveland got a big win against the Bears. They came back from 17-7 down and got a win. Joe Flacco has had a bit of a resurgence as a Brown. Granted he hasn't been on the level that he had when he was a Raven in his early years. He has to be one of the better upgrades this season at quarterback. Case Keenum could possibly make another start in this game. Or CJ Stroud could comeback and play in this game. I would say that the Texans best chance to win will be with Stroud as he has been their guy all season long. I feel safe with going for the road team. 

Green Bay (6-8) @ Carolina (2-12) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Packers; CV: Packers
The Packers lost to the Buccaneers and the Panthers beat the Falcons last week. Green Bay had been one of the more intriguing teams in the NFC. Intriguing in that if Jordan Love could play well enough to get to the playoffs in the first season after Aaron Rodgers left, it might've became quite the storyline. Unfortunately losses to the Giants and Buccaneers killed a lot of the chance for the Green and Yellow to get into the tournament. Carolina has been playing out the season. Playing spoilers in general. They have a shot to really put a dash in the Packers playoff hopes. They need to really take advantage of turnovers and to have Bryce Young throw the ball in high percentage throws to get his confidence up. I'll take the road team. 

Indianapolis (8-6) @ Atlanta (6-8) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Colts; CV: Colts
The Colts beat the Steelers and the Falcons lost to the Panthers last week. A big game for the Colts. The collapse of the Jacksonville Jaguars has given the rest of the AFC South a notice. Indy has been playing well on offense with both the run and pass games being on equal footing. The defense has been like an average unit in the NFL. Atlanta really had a chance to maintain a position in the hotly contested NFC South. The 9-7 loss to the Panthers really put a damper to their confidence and season. If the Falcons can win this game they would have to do it by playing their best football of the season. The Colts aren't exactly a great team but turnovers have killed them in this season. 

Seattle (7-7) @ Tennessee (5-9) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Titans; CV: Seahawks
The Seahawks beat the Eagles and the Titans lost to the Texans last week. An interesting matchup in the NFC-AFC. The Seahawks come off their best win of the season beating the Eagles. They did it with their offense coming back from a 17-10 deficit. They got a good game from Kenneth Walker as he came back from injury. Drew Lock had a solid game throwing the ball in the start. Tennessee has been an interesting team this year. They've had more downs than ups but the legend of Will Levis intrigues me. Derrick Henry's stats have been down this year but he is still the king. If the Titans give Henry a shot at 100 yards rushing I think they can win this one. At least help take the pressure off of Levis. The game could go either way but the game will come down to the team that gets 100 yards rushing from either Walker or Henry. I'll take the Titans.

Washington (4-10) @ NY Jets (4-10) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Commanders; CV: Commanders
The Commanders lost to the Rams and the Jets lost to the Dolphins last week. Both teams that aren't going anywhere past Week 18. One team is likely going to fire its coach while the other is an unknown. Washington's offense will have a decent challenge in the Jets defense. The defense is at least playing better than its offense. Aaron Rodgers also announced that he won't be playing at all this season (much to everyone's surprise). Washington should be able to find a way to win, at least know how to. The game feels like a toss-up but I'll go with the Commanders. 

Jacksonville (8-6) @ Tampa Bay (7-7) (CBS; 4:05 pm): TW: Buccaneers; CV: Buccaneers
The Jaguars lost to the Ravens and the Buccaneers beat the Packers last week. A battle in the state of Florida! The Jaguars have looked like a rough squad the last few weeks. They were at one point on top of the AFC South with momentum riding high. The offense has kind of let them down a bit. Play calling has been a bit of a question mark as well. The Jaguars now sit with a three-way tie with the Colts and Texans for control of the AFC South. Margin for error is kind of slim. The margin of error is not as wide for the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield also got a perfect passer rating in Lambeau Field's history last week. Pretty cool accolade to have. 

Arizona (3-11) @ Chicago (5-9) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Bears; CV: Cardinals
The Cardinals lost to the 49ers and the Bears lost to the Browns last week. Arizona has been having a long, rough season. It was to be expected at least they would have a rough go of it. They don't have a lot of offensive help for Kyler Murray. Murray might be gone by the offseason. Chicago hasn't had the best kind of season. They really wished they could have a few games back for sure. They aren't playing for much of anything other than pride. Same with the Cardinals. I'll go with the Bears as I do like the matchup of the Bears running game against the Cardinals run defense. That balance can help them pull off a win. 

Dallas (10-4) @ Miami (10-4) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Dolphins; CV: Dolphins
The Cowboys lost to the Bills and the Dolphins beat the Jets last week. The marquee game while people put final touches on presents will have an intriguing matchup with the Cowboys and Dolphins. Dallas comes into this game coming off with a big win against the Eagles and then falter against the Bills in a largely convincing way. They just got out played in that game. Weather might've been a factor as well. Miami comes off a win against their rival Jets. Their offense put up 30 points but it seemed like they went on a hibernation mode a bit. Like they didn't need to put up a lot more effort in the win. Granted the Jets offense kind of gave them those opportunities. Dallas doesn't have a good record against teams with a winning record. They really need to get that stat off of them. I like the Dolphins in the matchup. 

New England (3-11) @ Denver (7-7) (NFL Network; 8:15 pm): TW: Broncos; CV: Broncos
The Patriots lost to the Chiefs and the Broncos lost to the Lions last week. New England has had a rough year. They had some lofty expectations with Mac Jones being the rebound guy to get the Patriots offense back to respectability. Unfortunately, the season hasn't been the way that he and the Patriots had wanted. They're just playing out the season. Denver has some hope of getting back into the playoff hunt. They need help but nonetheless they need to win the rest of the way and get some help from the rest of the opponents that the Colts, Browns and Bengals will play in the last few weeks. They didn't have much of a shot to win against the Lions but a few scenarios might've switched the contest in their favor. The Broncos offense has been playing better of late. Their defense will need to be a priority in the offseason as they tend to give up more points than they produce. I'll take the home team Broncos in a take down matchup. 

Las Vegas (5-9) @ Kansas City (9-5) (CBS/Nickelodeon; 1:00 pm): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs
The Raiders beat the Chargers and the Chiefs beat the Patriots last week. The first of three games on Christmas Day and this game will be on Nickelodeon as well. The Raiders come into this game being shutout 3-0 in Week 14 and then deciding to actually put up an actual offense the next week by putting up 63 points in a 63-21 victory. Kansas City comes into this game a bit shaky but nonetheless staying the course. The ship hasn't quite sunk yet on the defending champs. Maybe playing against their arch-rival Raiders will spark the team into playing solid, no dropped passes, football. Both teams know each other really well so I think it will come down to raw talent. Sure the Raiders put up 63 points but it was against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Chiefs defense will have no mercy for Aidan O'Connell. I'll take the Chiefs until proven that last week wasn't a fluke for the Raiders. 

NY Giants (5-9) @ Philadelphia (10-4) (FOX; 4:30 pm): TW: Eagles; CV: Eagles
The Giants lost to the Saints and the Eagles lost to the Seahawks last week. The 2nd of three games on Xmas Day! This is a rematch of the NFC Divisional playoff game where the Giants went into Philadelphia and got beat soundly. Oddly enough this is the first of two matchups that will happen in the next three weeks. New York got beat soundly against the Saints. It seemed like when Tommy DeVito went down with injury, the team's spirit kind of fell off a cliff. Seems like at least Tyrod Taylor will get the start until proven otherwise. I like the story of Tommy DeVito and I hope he gets another shot to play. Maybe he will in this game. Philly has looked a bit rough around the edges of late. They got blown out by San Francisco, Dallas and now losing by a field goal to the Seahawks. The once feared offense has looked kind of ordinary. Probably doesn't help that they have Matt Patricia as their defensive coordinator. I still feel the Eagles will take care of business and at least stay with the Cowboys in the one spot in the tough NFC East. 

Baltimore (11-3) @ San Francisco (11-3) (ABC/ESPN; 8:15 pm): TW: 49ers; CV: Ravens
The Ravens beat the Jaguars and the 49ers beat the Cardinals last week. The final game of three on Christmas Day. A potential Super Bowl Preview? Baltimore comes into this game playing pretty well. They have one of most balanced offenses in the NFL with a plethora of running backs to choose from. Like a vaunted bullpen full of ready relievers in baseball, each running back brings his own style. Baltimore could be without runner Keaton Mitchell who suffered an egregious leg injury while running on a play. His leg buckled under him. Despite that the Ravens might face its toughest challenge of the season. San Francisco is kind of similar to the Ravens. They do have some fun weapons on offense that can run and catch and throw passes. Brock Purdy has looked like a stud in his first full season as a starter. So much so that he could be possibly the MVP of the league. San Francisco is favored in this game to win by 5 1/2 but I think the Ravens can keep this one a bit closer than the Red and Gold faithful would like. I think it's going to be a war in the trenches but I think the Niners will take it by a last second field goal. 

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings


Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings


CBS Single

Washington @ NY Jets
Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Seattle @ Tennessee
Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Matt Ryan

Cleveland @ Houston
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay (Late)
Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

FOX Early

Detroit @ Minnesota
Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

Green Bay @ Carolina
Chris Myers, Roberth Smith

Indianapolis @ Atlanta
Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth

FOX Late

Dallas @ Miami
Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olson

Arizona @ Chicago
Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2023: Week 16 Maps


Records


Cardinal Viking:

2023: 
Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 13-3
Week 5: 6-8
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 4-9
Week 8: 10-6
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 6-8
Week 11: 7-7
Week 12: 9-7
Week 13: 9-4
Week 14: 5-10
Week 15: 10-6

Total: 124-100

2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 151-104-1
2020: 163-92-1
2021: 167-104-1
2022: 157-112-2

My record: 

2023:
Week 1: 9-7
Week 2: 11-5
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 14-2
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 8-7
Week 7: 5-8
Week 8: 10-6
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 7-7
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 8-8
Week 13: 9-4
Week 14: 4-11
Week 15: 10-6

Total: 133-91

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1 
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 16 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom


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