Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The week that was Week 6 was a bit of a rough one for picks as I finished with . Let's hope that Week 6 can be a better one. For games this week, I'll keep an eye on the 49ers-Seahawks, Cardinals-Packers, Commanders-Ravens, Lions-Cowboys and Bills-Jets. In this post I'll do a preview of the week ahead, my picks for the games and the Early and Late TV Broadcast pairings. Let's get to work!
Week 6 Preview
The sixth week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Seattle, Washington and finish up in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The week will have a 14-game slate where 28 teams will play. Teams on a bye this week are the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. There will be five division matchups, three NFC matchups, two AFC matchups and four interconference games. For games, there will be a Thursday night game, a Sunday morning game, six early games, four late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. CBS will have the single, regional game while FOX will carry the doubleheader this week.
Week 6 Picks
Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me.
San Francisco (2-3) @ Seattle (3-2) (Amazon; 8:15 pm)
Pick: 49ers
The 49ers lost to the Cardinals and the Seahawks lost to the Giants last week. The 49ers just look off in a way. They can hold leads through the first three quarters of a game and then implode during the fourth quarter. Division losses to the Rams and Cardinals are similar in that they had double-digit leads and then let the opposing team win. Injuries have their key players on the bench but that's not much of an excuse when you have Kyle Shanahan. I think the offense just needs to simplify and keep putting the hurt on opposing defenses.
Seattle had been 3-0 to start the first season of the Mike MacDonald era in Seattle. Two losses to the Lions and Giants have this team reeling. Geno Smith has been kind of off in the last few weeks with interceptions but mistakes on special teams have also been an achilles heel for the Seahawks. Kenneth Walker III didn't have much of a chance to get going last week. The defense also broke down as well. Seattle is just not in a good way right now. I'll take the 49ers as I don't trust the Seahawks against their division rival.
All-time series: Seahawks lead 30-22
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Chicago (3-2) (NFL Network; 9:30 am)
Pick: Bears
The Jaguars won against the Colts and the Bears beat the Panthers last week. Another Sunday morning game in London. The Jaguars finally got a win against the Colts. Granted it was a game that the Jags had to score 37 points while giving up 34 points. They had a good day from Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the offense. The emergence of a good running back in Tank Bigsby might be something to work forward to if you're the offensive coordinator. The Jaguars defense is still shaky but still holds steady.
The Bears looked really good against the Panthers. Granted the Panthers are not a good team, they're a pretty bad team. The offense put up 36 points while the defense only allowed 10 points. It has to be said that the Panthers offense was scoring a fair share of points the previous two weeks with Andy Dalton at the helm. Dandre Swift and Roschon Johnson has been a good tandem in the running back position. DJ Moore has been a good reliable receiver for Caleb Williams to throw to. I think the game will be a bit closer but I think the Bears will prevail.
All-time series: Bears lead 5-3
Arizona (2-3) @ Green Bay (3-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Packers
The Cardinals beat the 49ers and the Packers beat the Rams last week. Arizona got a big win against rival San Francisco. They were down by quite a bit in the 1st half. Then the 49ers laxed in the 2nd half and they found a win. The Cardinals on offense is quite something to watch. Let alone, a 50-yard run by Kyler Murray for a score. The running game is going to be something and the receiver corp is quite something as well. It'll be a good test against the Packers.
Green Bay has somehow stayed above .500 for the season. The loss of Jordan Love earlier in the season might've been the death kneel but Malik Willis kept the Packers in a position where they are in. The last two weeks for the Pack has been mixed. When they give up the ball via turnovers, they lose and their defense has to pick up the slack. That was what really happened against the Vikings. The Vikings ultimately won the game but they showed fight. Last week against the Rams was a big win but the Rams offense was missing key players. They did win by five points. The book is kind of mixed on the Packers but if they can shut down the versatile Cardinals offense, I think their stock will rise a bit.
All-time series: Packers lead 46-26-4
Cleveland (1-4) @ Philadelphia (2-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Eagles
The Browns lost to the Commanders and the Eagles had a bye last week. Cleveland has been so to speak, up to expectations this season. Their offense has been pretty putrid. Yes I know that their offensive pieces have been injured. They still have some decent players in Jerome Ford and Jerry Jeudy to get yardage. I just think the reason for the Browns record is one person: DeShaun Watson. He hasn't played really well this season. It really proves that the Browns really shouldn't have thrown a ton of money at him. Just to play this badly. I don't trust the Browns.
The Eagles had the week off. The last time we saw these Eagles was a blowout loss in the hot Tampa sun as the Buccaneers beat the Eagles badly. Their offense didn't do a whole lot and their defense got manhandled. It's a make or break season for Nick Sirianni who might be in trouble if the Eagles don't do well this season. It almost feels like he lost the locker room to a degree. Suffice to say, I think the Eagles are still the better team on paper but there's a reason why the play the game. If they lose to Cleveland, I don't know if there's any coming back from it. I'll take the Iggles.
All-time series: Browns lead 32-17-1
Houston (4-1) @ New England (1-4) (CBS; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Texans
The Texans beat the Bills and the Patriots lost to the Dolphins last week. Houston had a plethora of mistakes against the Vikings. They seemed to solve them relatively quickly as they took down the Jaguars and the Bills at home. In the two game sample that the Texans had on the road it has been a bit mixed. They beat the Colts by two points and got blown out by the Vikings in US Bank Stadium. I'm not saying that the Texans will get blown out by the Patriots in Gillette but I would be a bit concerned on their performance on the road. Suffice to say, the offense of the Texans is pretty good. Stefon Diggs has yet to catch a touchdown pass but perhaps teams are game planning on him better. Opposing defensive coordinators haven't had much success as everyone else seems to do better.
New England's season has been pretty much two things: bad offensive line and Jacoby Brissett getting hit a lot. Quite honestly the Patriots should gift him a ice tub for Christmas. All that for Drake Maye to watch him handle himself in the huddle and keep getting up. A lot of Pats fans want Maye to start but quite honestly, this line couldn't stop a fly if it could. The aim for the Patriots this season is to try to find a formula in an obvious rebuilding season and hope to win some games here and there. The defense of the Patriots is decent and can grab turnovers when it can. It really depends on how long will the losing last with the offense not picking up the slack where the defense is holding down the door. I'll take the Texans.
All-time series: Patriots lead 11-3
Indianapolis (2-3) @ Tennessee (1-3) (CBS; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Colts
The Colts lost to the Jaguars and the Titans had a bye last week. Indianapolis had a bit of a letdown last week against Jacksonville. The offense really played well under Joe Flacco. The defense is probably the most suspect thing for them at the moment. I'm not too worried for the Colts yet as Joe Flacco's track record has been good. He literally led the Browns to a playoff spot last season. I trust that he can do it with the Colts. I just think the defense needs to play better. They have a chance to do it against a not great Titans offense.
Last time we saw the Titans was that they beat the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. I'm not sure if they really won the bye week or if they lost it. I doubt the latter. If anything it was kind of an unneeded bye week. I'm not sure what to make of the Titans. The team isn't great but it isn't terrible either. In terms of record, they seem to be not great. I think that they are really a competent quarterback away from actually putting some notice in the AFC South. Will Levis hasn't quite the season that fans would've wanted. The defense is surprisingly the best in the NFL with #1 ranked pass defense with an average rush defense. If the Titans want to win this game, they need to get a great game from their offense and shut down Joe Flacco. I don't see it happening.
All-time series: Colts lead 37-22
Tampa Bay (3-2) @ New Orleans (2-3) (FOX; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Buccaneers
Last week the Buccaneers lost to the Falcons and the Saints lost to the Buccaneers. The Bucs will be away from home as Hurricane Milton ravages Tampa during the middle of the week and into the later days of the week. Despite this at least they won't have to have that distraction floating through their minds. Maybe even give the fans of Tampa something to distract themselves as cleaning happens. Other than hurricanes, the Buccaneers had a letdown game last week as the Bucs kept the Falcons hanging around and got bit in the end as the Falcons won in overtime. The offense has been doing a good job so far but they need to have a rebound game.
New Orleans last week got outplayed, outcoached and just didn't look well. The game against the Chiefs also hurt more when Derek Carr got injured with an oblique injury. The injury hurts as they have Jake Haener as an option for them and not much else. They have Spencer Rattler as a 3rd string option but he's unproven in the NFL yet. We shall see if the Saints will go with either of them. The Saints offense hasn't really had a great game since they blew out the Cowboys in Week 2. Since then the offense has just scored 12, 24 and 13 points in three straight losses. I think its risky to take the Saints, I'll take the Bucs as the bounceback.
All-time series: Saints lead 40-25
Washington (4-1) @ Baltimore (3-2) (CBS; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Ravens
The Commanders beat the Browns and the Ravens beat the Bengals last week. Probably the best game of the week. Washington has a 4-1 record for the first time since 2008. For perspective, the 2008 Redskins (yes they were still called the Redskins back then) started 4-1 but finished with a 1-7 record to go with a 8-8 record and Jim Zorn was the head coach back then. The current iteration of Washington seems pretty good as their offense is firing on all cylinders and a defense that feels at ease as their offense forces opposing defenses to throw more than run. A good combo for sure. I think they'll run into a buzzsaw.
The Ravens had a tough start to the season with a 0-2 record. They didn't panic and they managed to get back to a 3-2 record and look like the best challenge to the Chiefs for the AFC. Their offense is probably the best balanced offense in the league. They have the former MVP in Lamar Jackson and a sidekick or superhero (depending on a certain frame of mind) in Derrick Henry. One thing to keep in mind, the Ravens won the Super Bowl in the 2000 season and then in the 2012 season. Do you see a pattern here. Yes I know it's a bit far-fetched but just saying. I think this game will be a scoring fest I think and this will be a good test of how well either team can play against very good competition. I'll take the Ravens.
All-time series: Ravens lead 4-3
LA Chargers (2-2) @ Denver (3-2) (CBS; 4:05 pm)
Pick: Broncos
The Chargers had a bye and the Broncos beat the Raiders last week. We last saw the Chargers play against the Chiefs at home. Their offense kind of fell apart against the defending champions. Justin Herbert missed most of the game with an injury. It looks like he will not play for this game. That doesn't spell well for the Chargers. In his place is Taylor Heinicke. He is a solid veteran but he will be facing off against the the newest reiteration of the Orange Crush defense. It might be a bit of a struggle for the Chargers in this one.
The Broncos have been a bit of a surprise so far this year. They have won three straight games with a balanced offense and a defense that can hit people. Bo Nix hasn't been a flashy quarterback but that's okay. He doesn't need to be a stellar starter. He has been limiting turnovers and head coach Sean Payton has to be pleased with him in not doing that. Their offense has lately been putting up points left and right. I think they should find success in running against the Chargers defense. I'll take the Broncos.
All-time series: Broncos lead 73-55-2
Pittsburgh (3-2) @ Las Vegas (2-3) (CBS; 4:05 pm)
Pick: Steelers
The Steelers lost to the Cowboys and the Raiders lost to the Broncos last week. The Steelers had been going well with a 3-0 record. Two losses to the Colts and the Cowboys in back-to-back games are kind of concerning. The offense has been the more concerning portion of the team than the defense. At least to a certain degree. The linebacking corp has been hurt as their captain Alex Highsmith has been injured. I think they should be alright against the Raiders.
Las Vegas is kind of a weird team. They can beat really good teams in the Ravens and shit the bed against the Panthers and the Broncos. The problem is their offense is kind of disintegrating before our very eyes. It seems that the quarterback position in Gardner Minshew hasn't been a fruitful one so far this season. The ongoing drama of Davante Adams wanting out of Las Vegas doesn't help either. The trade deadline is not for a few more weeks but I feel the distraction could linger for a while as they don't seem keen on trading him right away. Some rumors of him going to the Jets which might happen but they fired Robert Saleh. Suffice to say, I don't see the Raiders winning this game unless Gardner Minshew finds himself going back to the drawing book and find an answer. I'll take the Steelers.
All-time series: Raiders lead 17-15
Atlanta (3-2) @ Carolina (1-4) (FOX; 4:25 pm)
Pick: Falcons
The Falcons beat the Buccaneers and the Panthers lost to the Bears last week. Atlanta had played a long and rough game against the Buccaneers but hung tough and was awarded with a Khadarel Hodge touchdown to send the Falcons fans home happy. The offense had a boost with a 509-yard passing performance from Kirk Cousins. It was a sort of coming out party for Cousins who had a quiet start to his career in Atlanta. Maybe it will be a change for the rest of the season for the Falcons. The Falcons running game hasn't quite gotten off to a similar start in previous years. The tandem is still itching for a big game as Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier look to get going. The defense of Atlanta is a bit suspect.
Carolina has been kind of a mess and have been that way for the past two seasons. Andy Dalton gave the offense a bit of a jump start but it seems that the vehicle's drive is starting to slow down. Honestly, the Panthers should just keep going with Dalton as he gives the team their best chance to win, even if the possibility is not as a guarantee. Carolina's defense isn't that much better. They're just a team that is definitely rebuilding despite having a franchise quarterback in Bryce Young. I just don't trust the Panthers, I'll go with the Falcons.
All-time series: Falcons lead 36-22
Detroit (3-1) @ Dallas (3-2) (FOX; 4:25 pm)
Pick: Lions
The Lions had a bye and the Cowboys beat the Steelers last week. The marquee game on FOX should be a good one. The Lions offense really got going against the Seahawks in Week 4. Jared Goff had a perfect completion percentage. He had other friends getting yardage as well. Detroit's running game is a big monster with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery running through holes and getting big yards. The wide receiver group has also been getting better as well after a sluggish start. The Lions defense will be the factor in this game as they can give up yards through the air but have a solid run defense.
Dallas has had its growing pains this season. Their offense had been kind of sluggish at times. Dak Prescott has been playing good. The emergence of a #2 wide receiver in Jalen Tolbert and a popular target for Prescott KaVontae Turpin has been helpful in taking the pressure off of CeeDee Lamb who has five plays of over 25 yards in 2024. The defense has been kind of suspect but it is maybe a little bit average. The pass defense in Dallas is top-10 but their rush defense is their weak spot. I think the Lions should take advantage and go for a gameplan of run first. I'll take the Detroit Kitties.
All-time series: Cowboys lead 19-12
Cincinnati (1-4) @ NY Giants (2-3) (NBC; 8:20 pm)
Pick: Bengals
The Bengals lost to the Ravens and the Giants beat the Seahawks last week. The Sunday night matchup features a team that is on the ropes and another that might have a change of heart coming. Cincinnati looks like the team that is looking to be a team that might be sellers in the trade deadline. Their offense is trying to help them win games but the defense is just being too lax. In the last three losses, the Bengals have given up 26, 38 and 41 points. Just yikes. You can't expect Joe Burrow to carry that much of a heavy team. If their season expectation is a playoff berth then they need to win this one and go on a huge run. The defense will have its work cut out for them.
The Giants have looked like a team that might have found its identity. Outside of a blowout loss to the Vikings in Week 1, the Giants have only lost by a combined margin of eight points. Their defense is probably one of the more underrated units in the league that not much everyone else is taking notice. They aren't creating turnovers but they do have their share of getting to the quarterback as they have a unit that is combined with 22 sacks, six of them going to Dexter Lawrence. The offense just needs to get better and they might be getting better with finding Malik Nabers and a running game that might have found a stud in Tyrone Tracy Jr. I'll take the Bengals as I don't trust the Giants enough yet.
All-time series: Giants lead 6-5
Buffalo (3-2) @ NY Jets (2-3) (ESPN; 8:15 pm)
Pick: Bills
Last week the Bills lost to the Texans and the Jets lost to the Vikings. An AFC East rivalry matchup wraps up Week 6. The Bills coming into this matchup with a 3-2 record with two straight losses. The offense which had been the highest scoring in the league prior to the Ravens game. It has scored just 30 points in the two losses while giving up 58 points. Kind of a reverse so to speak. The reason for the rough step is really the offense being one dimensional as the run game was put to a halt and when you have a one-dimensional offense, the rest of the offense falls apart.
The Jets have had a rough couple of weeks as well. The offense has averaged just 13 points a game in the last two weeks. The Jets had averaged three touchdowns a game prior to the Broncos game in Week 4. The reason for that is turnovers as Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions in a loss to the Vikings in London. The defense has done what it can but even the New York Sack Exchange in the 1980's had its troubles. The offense just looks so out of sync. Simplicity and back to fundamentals should be key for the Jets. Both teams have had their issues with offense but I tend to trust the Josh Allen factor in the Bills.
UPDATE 10/08: The Jets fired Robert Saleh. Jets gonna do Jets things. My pick won't change.
All-time series: Bills lead 69-58
Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings
Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings
FOX Early
Cleveland @ Philadelphia
FOX Late
Detroit @ Dallas
Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady
CBS Single
Washington @ Baltimore
For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out:
Records
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
2019: 161-94-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111
See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 6 Recap! Enjoy the games!
-Tom
No comments:
Post a Comment