NFL 2024 Conference Championship Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The Divisional round is over and we are left with four teams. The four teams, two in each conference, will now play for the right to represent their respective conferences. The Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles will play for the George S. Halas Trophy to represent the National Football Conference. The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will play for the Lamar Hunt Trophy to represent the American Football Conference. By the end of Sunday night, we will know what two teams will represent these conferences. Let's get to work!

Conference Championship Preview

The Conference Championship will have two games played where four teams will play. Championship Sunday will start in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and end in Kansas City, Missouri. There will be a Sunday late afternoon game and then a Sunday night game. Let's get to the picks!

Conference Championship Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. 

Washington @ Philadelphia (FOX; 3:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Commanders beat the Lions and the Eagles beat the Rams last week. Championship Sunday starts with a matchup that is reaching its 3rd meeting this season. The season series between these two teams is deadlocked at 1-1. It also helps when they're literally in the same division. The last time these two met, it was a Washington victory with Jalen Hurts being injured with a concussion. It was a close win as the Commanders would win on a Jayden Daniels pass to Jamison Crowder for a 9-yard score and then a successful two-point conversion. Washington would rely on Jayden Daniels a lot for their scoring as he would account for all of the offensive touchdowns Washington had on that day in late December. I think this game will matter a bit more when it comes to trying to stop Daniels. The wide receivers will need to have a good day and I think the defense will need to find a way to slow down Saquon Barkley who had 150 rushing yards in the last matchup. I think the game will speak more to the Commanders defense to step up in rush defense which allows 137.5 yards/game. In terms of pass defense, they're solid as a unit as they can limit opposing pass offenses to 205.4 yards/game. The Commanders defense needs to slow down Saquon Barkley in order to win this game. 

At least the Eagles have made it this far. Unlike the Ravens. The Eagles offense starts with Saquon Barkley who has 324 rushing yards so far in this playoffs. Had it not been for Jalen Hurts injury in the December 23rd matchup, the Eagles might've won that game. Saquon Barkley had a 2,000 yard rushing season but didn't go after Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record. Probably for the best they did that. The Eagles will need him to do his thing. The big thing for this game is offensive line play. They do have a tall task in eliminating the pass rush and run defense of the Commanders who as a unit has 43 sacks on the regular season and three in the playoffs. With the high sack numbers it looks like the defensive line puts a hat on their guy and then the linebackers do their thing. Dante Fowler has 10.5 sacks in the regular season. The defense of the Eagles as a unit has 41 sacks to their name in the regular season. Josh Sweat leads the team in that stat with eight sacks this season. The Eagles lead the NFL with forced fumbles with 18 and Washington just has 12. I think the two teams are evenly matched in terms of skill positions and defensive prowess. I think it will ultimately come down to which offensive line can limit sacks and tackles for losses. Football is a battle in the trenches ultimately. I'll take the Eagles but I do like the story in the Commanders this season. 

All-time series: Commanders lead 90-85-5; 2nd postseason meeting (Commanders lead 1-0)

Buffalo @ Kansas City (CBS; 6:30 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Bills beat the Ravens and the Chiefs beat the Texans last week. The matchup that keeps on coming every year. The Allen-Mahomes matchup is reaching to its 9th meeting, 4th postseason meeting overall. It isn't quite Brady-Manning as both of them had won a ring respectively. Josh Allen has yet to take his team to a Super Bowl let alone win one. He has been dominant against other teams in the playoffs but he has yet to defeat Patrick Mahomes in them. This might change possibly. Josh Allen has played well against the Chiefs but his team around him has usually ended up failing him in some way or another. The 2022 Divisional where there was a thousand touchdowns in the last few minutes and into Overtime, the defense would fail him. Sadly the Sudden Death rules were dead as a touchdown in overtime meant game over. Last year's Divisional where the Bills lost 27-24, the kicker would embrace his inner Scott Norwood and hit a field goal that would go wide right. Football is a team game, Josh Allen will get the credit for their success yes but a dual-edged sword also says failures are squarely on him. Not fair but it is what it is. Fortunately, the Chiefs are somewhat of a shadow of his former selves this season as their offense is just rough around the edges and they somehow get wins. Their defense has had to pick up the load. The key for the Bills I think is ensuring the run game can keep going, keep an eye on Chris Jones at all costs, let alone avoid him and have the defense and special teams focused with a "all hands on deck" sort of deal.

The Chiefs are attempting to do something that the 1968 Packers, 1974 Dolphins, 1976 and 1980 Steelers, 1990 49ers, 1994 Cowboys, 1999 Broncos, and 2005 Patriots couldn't do and get to the Super Bowl for the 3rd straight time. Except for the 1976 Steelers, 1990 49ers and 1994 Cowboys, all the other teams in that list wouldn't even make it to this point in a conference championship as they all fell either in the Divisional, Wild Card or miss the playoffs. The Chiefs have the pressure to get back to the Super Bowl on them. Buffalo is really playing loose and have an "us against the world" mentality. In the playoffs, Patrick Mahomes has dominated Josh Allen's Bills with a 3-0 mark. The 2024 Chiefs just aren't quite the high octane offense they have been this season let alone playoffs. Whether they're saving that for this matchup and the Super Bowl or they have one hand tied behind their back and they're playing with their food. Something just seems off about them. The defense has been playing back to their outstanding performance to last years squad. It just seems like a formula for not outstanding success. To rely on a defense where you face off against an offense that can run the ball will as Buffalo can do and a quarterback that can run and pass just as well as anyone else. There is a reason why three-peats have never happened in the NFL, the long season, free agency, injuries, players retiring are just some of the reason why it never occurs. I still stand by my belief that the field will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl back in the preseason post. I will not turn back now. Let's go Buffalo!

All-time series: Bills lead 30-25-1; 7th postseason meeting (Chiefs lead 4-2)

TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Check local listings for your channel(s).

Washington @ Philadelphia (NFC Championship Game)
Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

Buffalo @ Kansas City (AFC Championship Game)

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

Super Wild Card Weekend: 4-2

Divisional: 2-2

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the AFC Championship Game for the Conference Championship Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom