Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. Well, the regular season is over and 18 teams will now be watching from home or preparing for the next season. The rest will now make their play and go for the ultimate prize of being a Super Bowl Champion. The first week of the playoffs called the Wild Card round will have 12 of those teams make their play for the championship. By week's end six will remain and move on to the Divisional round. In this post, I will do a preview and picks of the six games being played over three days and the broadcast pairings that the networks will put out for the games. Let's get to work!
Super Wild Card Weekend Preview
The Wild Card round will start in Houston, Texas and wrap up in Inglewood, California. The week will feature six games and 12 teams competing. There will be a Saturday afternoon game, a Saturday night game, a Sunday early afternoon game, a Sunday late afternoon game, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. CBS will show two games while ABC, NBC, FOX and Amazon Prime will show one game. Let's get to the picks!
Super Wild Card Weekend Picks
Note: All game times are in US Eastern.
LA Chargers @ Houston (CBS; 4:30 pm)
Pick: Chargers
The Chargers beat the Raiders and the Texans beat the Titans last week. The playoffs start again at Houston. Kind of goes to show how much the NFL values the Texans or the AFC South winner instead of it being on a primetime slot. The Chargers got here by getting a wild card spot and going on a 11-6 record. It is their first playoff appearance since 2022 and the first in Jim Harbaugh's career in LA. The offense has done better by going more of a balanced offense instead of Justin Herbert throwing the ball 40-50 times a game. They have some physicality with running the football with JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The emergence of Ladd McConkey as a pass catcher has added more of a weapon to a team that's offense is good on the passing game. On defense, the Chargers went for more of an improvement as last year they were the 24th scoring defense to 1st only allowing 17.7 points/game while having the 8th best passing defense allowing 221.3 yards/game from the air. Joey Bosa is a game changer and having Derwin James will make quarterbacks hesitate from throwing the ball to him.
Houston has been in a normal spot for the playoffs. The first game of the playoffs seem to always start in Houston. The game itself will be an intriguing one. The offense of Houston's has been more of a run power game with Joe Mixon being the starter. They might've found a solid piece to run the ball with in Dameon Pierce who rushed for a 92-yard touchdown last week. CJ Stroud has led the passing attack but has been somewhat of a diminished quarterback in his sophomore season. With 3,727 yards with 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions Stroud has good numbers but it feels something is off with him. On defense, the Texans are ranked 6th in total defense with 7th ranked passing defense and 11th rushing defense. The Texans defense has some really good pieces on the defensive front with Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. They can ravage defenses and are ranked 2nd with 19 interceptions. I think the key to this one is to really wear the Chargers defense out early and get the ball to your pass catchers and have them make a play for the ball. I still think the Texans are the weakest of the AFC division winners but I think they'll do alright. Just not alright enough to get a win.
All-time series: Chargers lead 6-3; 1st postseason meeting.
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (Amazon; 8:00 pm)
Pick: Ravens
The Steelers lost to the Bengals and the Ravens beat the Browns last week. Two familiar foes go at it in Saturday night primetime. The Steelers come into this game with a four-game losing streak, with one of those losses coming from these same Ravens. Part of the reason is that the offense has come apart at the seams. It feels like something is wrong with Russell Wilson or there is some issue that we aren't aware of. With 11 games started he has thrown 2,482 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He has also been sacked 33 times so that might be a reason as well. For this game, they might need to rely more on their run game to help take the pressure off of Wilson. They do have a tandem of running backs with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to push forward. They're going to need them as the playoffs is more of physicality and trying to control the line of scrimmage. When it gets cold out and the passing game gets lessened as the football goes lesser distance in the cold air, a running game would be a useful tool.
Baltimore comes into this game clinching the AFC North for the 2nd straight season. They will face off against a familiar foe as both teams will meet for the 3rd time this season. The season series is split with the Steelers winning at their home and the Ravens winning at their home. The key for the Ravens is getting Derrick Henry going early and often and get him holes. I view Derrick Henry more of an inside runner than an outside one. Though he is dangerous either way and most defensive players will feel like hitting a brick wall tackling him. I think the goal is to get at least 20 carries and 100 yards rushing for him. If the Ravens can do that they should have a good shot to win. It sort of felt like an exorcism of demons in the last meeting for Lamar Jackson in beating Pittsburgh. History wise, the Steelers had dominated the series with Jackson as well as the all-time postseason series. Baltimore won the last meeting in January 2015. Sadly Lamar Jackson hasn't played well in the playoffs but hopefully with a sidekick he might finally get over the hump. The Ravens defense will need to make Russell Wilson try to beat you as he lately hasn't been playing or throwing well. Might have to let the running game get active as well. I would also note that George Pickens wasn't in the last matchup. Have to keep an eye on him as well. I think the Ravens take it.
All-time series: Steelers lead 36-26; 5th postseason meeting (Steelers lead 3-1)
Denver @ Buffalo (CBS; 1:00 pm)
Pick: Bills
The Broncos beat the Chiefs and the Bills lost to the Patriots last week. The Broncos finally got the postseason drought monkey off their back. They are back in the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50. Bo Nix has brought stability at the quarterback spot and that's what had been lacking since winning the Super Bowl. The offense has been more of a passing orientated game with a few run plays here and there. Their highest leading rusher is Javonte Williams with 513 rush yards. Bo Nix has 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and had almost 4,000 yards passing. The go-to guy has been Cortland Sutton with eight of those 29 passing touchdowns. I wished Denver would go more of a run game and establish it but they haven't had to really rely on it. Defensively, the Broncos have a solid defense especially in the defense's front seven. They lead the NFL in sacks with 63 sacks. The Bills will have their hands full in containing Zach Allen and have their offensive line schemes set in containing Nik Bonitto who has 13.5 sacks this season.
Buffalo seems to be the sexy pick in the AFC in terms of teams that aren't the Chiefs in winning it all. At some point they have to take it to the house and get a championship. At some point it has to be put up or shut up. They have to realize that they need to be ready when their time comes and focus and have fun. Offensively it all starts with Josh Allen. My pick for the MVP has 3,731 passing yards with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions while scoring 12 rushing touchdowns. I personally think he is the most valuable person on this team. The rest of the team hasn't played up to the potential of Allen's. I think the defense will need to step up as well as special teams. Special teams in terms of hitting field goals through the goalposts. James Cook has been a good complement to Allen in the running game and being a pass catcher. I hope he will be used a fair bit in this game. On defense, the Bills aren't quite as solid but they are more of a bend don't break defense that has dealt with a fair bit of injuries to their secondary. Playoff experience might be an advantage for the Bills but they need to be composed and try to relax and play their game. I'll take Buffalo.
All-time series: Bills lead 23-17-1; 2nd postseason meeting (Bills lead 1-0)
Green Bay @ Philadelphia (FOX; 4:30 pm)
Pick: Eagles
The Packers lost to the Bears and the Eagles beat the Giants last week. A rematch of a Week 1 game in Brazil. Green Bay has gotten to this point with a 11-6 record and playing 3rd wheel to the Lions and Vikings in the tough NFC North. The road to get to a Super Bowl will have them go up against arguably the best team in the NFC in Philadelphia. The Packers have done it with a solid season from Jordan Love. Love was injured a bit in the loss to Chicago but according to head coach Matt LaFleur he is ready to go and willing for this game. If he isn't then it falls on Malik Willis to provide offense to the Packers. Josh Jacobs has been a solid replacement to Aaron Jones as Jacobs has 1,329 rushing yards and has scored 15 touchdowns. The receiving corp has been a good one but I fear the loss of Christian Watson to a torn ACL injury will put things in doubt for the Packers. On defense, the Packers put forth a good unit as they are 5th in total defense and have a 7th best rushing defense. They will need to contain or slow Saquon Barkley down to get a chance to win this. The more carries that result in 1st downs, the harder it will be to win this game.
Philadelphia has been one of the better teams in the National Football Conference. The Eagles have really done it with probably the best running back in the league with Saquon Barkley who has 2,005 rushing yards, becoming the 9th running back in NFL history to achieve the 2,000 yard club. The Eagles have a good passing offense as well as Jalen Hurts has been a better passer this season than last season. His weapons have also been solid as well with AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. That Barkley person as a pass catcher isn't bad either. The defense of Philly's is a tough one to crack as they are ranked 1st in total defense only allowing 278.4 yards/game on average. They have the 2nd ranked pass defense and 10th ranked rushing defense. I question the health of Jalen Hurts who hasn't played since Week 16 due to a concussion. I think the talent gap is lessened if Kenny Pickett or Tanner McKee starts as I think that Jalen Hurts provides offense with his arm and legs and I don't know how well the other two can do in this one. Suffice to say, I think the Eagles will win this from Saquon Barkley running through holes and the defense putting a stomp on the Packers.
All-time series: Packers lead 28-19; 4th postseason meeting (Eagles lead 2-1)
Washington @ Tampa Bay (NBC; 8:00 pm)
Pick: Commanders
Washington is having a great season. They were at one point last season at a 4-13 record. They changed it to 12-5 this season to have a 8-game swing. Easily the best turnaround this season. The offense has largely been the thing that has gotten the Commanders over the hump. This season they are ranked 5th in points scored with 485 points or 28.5 points/game, compared to just 329 points or 19.4 points/game. Washington has embraced the running game with the 3rd best rushing offense getting 154.1 yards/game. That's wild. The plethora of running backs at head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's arsenal is quite impressive. The passing game isn't bad but it isn't great either. Jayden Daniels the passer has 3,568 with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. It should be noted that they played Tampa in Week 1 and lost. Safe to say that the Commanders have their identity and certainly have momentum on their side. I think this game will have a different outcome or at least a closer outcome than the Week 1 37-20 Buccaneers victory. Defensively it is something that will have to be addressed in the offseason as I think they are a pass rusher away from really being one of the better defenses. Someone that can create turnovers can be useful as well as they have just seven interceptions.
Tampa Bay won the NFC South and they have the 3rd seed locked up. The offense is quite good with Baker Mayfield proving to us yet again that the Browns are the problem. Mayfield has 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. His offense is ranked 4th in the NFL with 29.5 points/game or 502 total points. The defense is ranked 16th allowing 385 total points or 22.6 points/game. They will need to play better in this game. Tampa is ranked 4th in rush defense allowing 97.8 rushing yards per game. Something is going to have to give. Might have to make note that the Buccaneers are ranked 30th in passing defense. Last week, the Buccaneers kind of got off to a slow start on offense but would start to pick things up in the 2nd half. I question how much of a slow start will the Buccaneers have in this one. I think the losing team in the first game has an advantage in the rematch of the 2nd game. It doesn't always happen but this game has to be played out differently than the 37-20 win the Buccaneers played against these same Commanders in Week 1. I'll Take Washington.
All-time series: Series tied 13-13; 4th postseason meeting (Bucs lead 2-1)
Minnesota @ LA Rams (ABC/ESPN; 8:00 pm)
Pick: Rams
The Vikings lost to the Lions and the Rams lost to the Seahawks last week. A form amount of disrespect has been on the Vikings for most of the season. They were probably expected to win at least 6-7 games but they proved the doubters wrong with 14 games won, falling just one win short of a #1 seed in the NFC. The Vikings have done it with a offense that is good with the pass. Sam Darnold has proven that any situation is probably better than being with the Jets or Panthers. Having an offensive mind in head coach Kevin O'Connell will do that to you. Sam Darnold will need to rebound after having his worst game of the season last week against Detroit. It was the sort of game that made you think he reverted back to his old ways as a Jet or something. I'm not sure how well Minnesota can do against the Rams. The game will be in Glendale, Arizona and not in Inglewood as the Los Angeles wildfires are ongoing. At least it will be on a neutral site. Last time these two met the Rams weren't at full strength and they still won against Minnesota. I'm not sure how well they can handle the fact that Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford will be at full health and rested for this one. At least Kevin O'Connell seems to think that his team will face the Lions next week to give that bit of confidence.
The Rams won the NFC West and didn't have much to play for last week against Seattle. The offense went into a bit of a 2nd string offense as their main players Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua sat and recuperated in time for the playoffs. The Rams running game isn't too shabby either as Kyren Williams has 1,299 rushing yards and has 14 touchdowns rushing. Matthew Stafford has had a good season with 3,762 yards passing with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions. A bit low for the touchdown count but still quite good. The game will not be in Inglewood as the Los Angeles wildfires are ongoing. The game might mean a bit more for their fans as they battle against mother nature. At least give them some chance to take their minds away from the tragedy and see their team play. I think the game will depend on how well the defense can handle Sam Darnold. Will they make him uncomfortable as he was somewhat exposed a bit against the Lions. He was rushed, hurried and sacked at times. With Darnold feeling the heat, the offense of the Vikings fell apart. The game will depend on if Sam Darnold will be able to handle the playoff pressure and what version we'll see of him. I think the Rams have a bit more experience with these games and I'll take them in this one.
All-time series: Vikings lead 27-19-2; 8th postseason meeting (Vikings lead 5-2)
TV Broadcast Pairings
Note: All games are national games, meaning the nation will be able to see them. Given you have the channel that the game is on.
LA Chargers @ Houston
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit
Denver @ Buffalo
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Green Bay @ Philadelphia
Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady
Washington @ Tampa Bay
Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth
Minnesota @ LA Rams
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Records
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4
Total: 193-80
2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111
See you all after the Monday night game for the Super Wild Card Weekend Recap! Enjoy the games!
-Tom
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