Wednesday, November 14, 2018

NFL 2018 Week 11 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is soon to be upon us. The league is entering its 11th week of competition. In this column, I'll give my take on Le'Veon Bell not reporting to the Steelers, the 50th anniversary of "The Heidi Game," the latest playoff standings, and of course the picks! Let's get started.

Saved By The No Bell

The latest news out of Pittsburgh is that star running back Le'Veon Bell did not report to the Steelers facilities by early this week in order to participate in the remainder of the 2018 season. The decision to not come shouldn't have been that big of a surprise as much as the media was trying to make a case for it. It felt that it was expected for Bell to not come at all.

It's a smart move for the Steelers as they have a running back that is capable of carrying the load in an offense that is very balanced. James Conner walked into a situation that was a very low risk, high reward. In as little as one game into the 2018 season, the Steelers already knew the answer to who would replace Bell in the Steelers offense. Low risk in that he had the motivation to be in more and provide to the Steelers offense and the high reward of being just as good, if not better, than Bell.

For Le'Veon Bell it means that he will become a free agent at the end of the season and common sense would suggest that the Steelers should not franchise tag him since he obviously wants more money. The only reason why he held out was that he wanted more money so why give him even more. That's my two cents on it at least.

The Game That Changed It All

Picture it, you turn on the TV, turning it to CBS, half expecting that the news program "60 Minutes" would be on at its normal time at 7:00 pm (eastern time) but instead you see a football game on. In today's circumstances, the game would be on until its conclusion, but what if I told you that was not the case in 1968.

On November 17th, 1968 the New York Jets traveled to Oakland to play the Raiders in a game that started at 4:00 pm Eastern time, it would not end until after it's supposed 7:00 Eastern time slot. Heck, the 4th quarter started at 6:20 pm Eastern, any doubts that the game end before 7 died with it.

The game was televised on NBC and had Curt Gowdy and Al Rogatis as the commentators for the game. The network kept promoting the movie, Heidi, a family, Made-For-TV movie based off of an 1880 novel of the same name, as they were contractually obligated to show it, instead of the football game. By the time the network switched from Jets-Raiders to showing the movie the score of the game was 32-29 in favor of the Jets. By the end of the game, the Raiders would score two touchdowns, one from a 43-yard pass from Daryle Lamonica to Charlie Smith and from a 2-yard fumble return.

NBC switchboards on the east coast would blow out, the number of angry phone calls was staggering, the damage had been done. At the time there was only a handful of channels for people to choose from, and movies like Heidi came very seldom. You can't blame NBC for it really, either way, they would get angry phone calls from either non-football fans or football fans. There were no rules in regards to showing the game in its entirety.

Ultimately, the two teams would meet again in the American Football League playoffs for the AFL Championship, the Jets would get some revenge and would ultimately upset the NFL champion Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III. So in the end, it would change how the NFL was shown on television. Even if it happened nearly 50 years ago, it's still fun to look back at history.

Playoff Picture: Week 11

AFC:

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)
2nd seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2-1)
3rd seed: New England Patriots (7-3)
4th seed: Houston Texans (6-3)
5th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (7-2)
6th seed: Cincinnati Bengals (7-3)

Wild Card:

Cincinnati @ New England
LA Chargers @ Houston

In the hunt:

Tennessee Titans (5-4), Miami Dolphins (5-5), Baltimore Ravens (4-5), Indianapolis Colts (4-5), Cleveland Browns (3-6-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6), Denver Broncos (3-6), Buffalo Bills (3-7), NY Jets (3-7), Oakland Raiders (1-8)

NFC:

1st seed: Los Angeles Rams (9-1)
2nd seed: New Orleans Saints (8-1)
3rd seed: Chicago Bears (6-3)
4th seed: Washington Redskins (6-3)
5th seed: Carolina Panthers (6-3)
6th seed: Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1)

Wild card:

Minnesota @ Chicago
Carolina @ Washington

In the hunt:

Green Bay Packers (4-4-1), Atlanta Falcons (4-5), Seattle Seahawks (4-5), Dallas Cowboys (4-5), Philadelphia Eagles (4-5), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6), Detroit Lions (3-6), Arizona Cardinals (2-7), NY Giants (2-7), San Francisco 49ers (2-8)

Some of the big games that have big implications is the Vikings-Bears game on Sunday night, the Packers-Seahawks game on Thursday night, as well as the Eagles-Saints game for the late slate on Sunday. If the Vikings beat the Bears then they would be ahead of the Bears due to the head-to-head factor.

Cool video of the week:

As I had talked about earlier in the column, I talked about "The Heidi Game" between the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders. In some parts of the country, the game switched to the movie, while the rest of the country still watched the game in its entirety. This video on YouTube wasn't the game-to-movie footage, but rather the game showed until the final whistle. The footage that had the AFL had rules in regards to showing games past its time slot. Anyways here is this week's cool video the week!


Week 11 Picks

Week 11 of the National Football League will begin in Seattle, Washington, and end in Los Angeles, California. There will be 13 games on the week's slate. The week features a Thursday night game, seven early games, three late games, a Sunday night game, and a Monday night game. The Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and San Francisco 49ers are on a bye week. FOX will have the doubleheader, and CBS will have the single, regional game. Let's get to the picks!

Green Bay (4-4-1) @ Seattle (4-5) (FOX/NFL Network): TW: Packers, CV: Seahawks
The Packers got a win against the Dolphins and the Seahawks lost to the Rams last week. The game will be on my birthday, as I turn 30 years old. The last time the Packers were playing on my birthday they would lose to the Lions at home for the first time in 20+ years. Hoping for a different result. The game I feel will come down to if the Packers defense can keep the Seahawks offense at bay and the Packers offense gives the ball to Aaron Jones at least 20+ times in this game. Go Pack Go!

Houston (6-3) @ Washington (6-3) (CBS): TW: Texans, CV: Texans
The Texans were on a bye week and the Redskins got a win against the Buccaneers last week. The two teams look evenly matched as both teams feature two good running attacks. I feel it will come down to the quarterback play. I trust DeShaun Watson more than Alex Smith as Watson has put up better numbers over the last few weeks than Smith has. The Texans defense is quite good as well as long as JJ Watt is in the lineup. Overall, I trust Houston to get the job done. 

Pittsburgh (6-2-1) @ Jacksonville (3-6) (CBS): TW: Steelers, CV: Steelers
The Steelers got a win against the Panthers on Thursday night and the Jaguars lost to the Colts last week. The game was originally slated to be on Sunday night but was flexed out due to the Jaguars not being as good as they were at this time last year. I had picked the Jaguars a few times too much over the season and I have to jump off their bandwagon for this week. Ultimately the Steelers should win with stellar offense and with the distraction of Le'Veon Bell off their minds they should get a win. I hope.

Tennessee (5-4) @ Indianapolis (4-5) (CBS): TW: Colts, CV: Titans
Both teams got a win last week as the Titans beat the Patriots and the Colts beat the Jaguars. The game features two interesting offensive attacks, two proven quarterbacks in Marcus Mariota and Andrew Luck. The Colts have put up better offensive numbers than the Titans even though the Titans blew out the Pats 34-10 last week. The game will come down to the Titans offense vs Colts defense matchup. If one side of the ball dominates the line of scrimmage then the favorable team should get the win. I trust Andrew Luck a bit more. Sorry Titans.

Dallas (4-5) @ Atlanta (4-5) (FOX): TW: Cowboys, CV: Cowboys
The Cowboys got a win against the Eagles and the Falcons lost to the Browns last week. The Cowboys should get the win as they have offensive weapons in Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliot, and Amari Cooper. The Falcons defense is ranked 30th in overall defense so far this season, 29th in pass defense. The Falcons can make a case to keep it close but I don't trust them in this matchup.

Tampa Bay (3-6) @ NY Giants (2-7) (FOX): TW: Giants, CV: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers lost to the Redskins and the Giants beat the 49ers last week. The game might've looked like a playoff matchup at the start of the season but its pretty far from it now. I'm going for the Giants because if their defense can shut down Tampa's running game forcing them to pass the ball, making them one-dimensional they have a shot to win the game as the Bucs have the #1 passing offense in the league so far. The Giants are 10th in pass defense. Something has to give in this one, and I'll take the home team. 

Cincinnati (5-4) @ Baltimore (4-5) (CBS): TW: Ravens, CV: Ravens
The Bengals lost to the Saints and the Ravens were on a bye week last week. The Bengals have fallen off the AFC North division race since the last time these two teams played each other early in the season. I like the Ravens in this matchup as they still have a solid, great defense that can shut down offenses and if they can cause harm to the Bengals offense, then they should pick up a victory as the Bengals defense is banged up. Could be a field day for Joe Flacco.

Carolina (6-3) @ Detroit (3-6) (FOX): TW: Panthers, CV: Panthers
Both teams took losses last week as the Panthers lost to the Steelers and the Lions lost to the Bears. The game will come down to if the Panthers offense can continue doing what they've been doing all year, relying on the arm and legs of Cam Newton and the legs and arms of their running backs and wide receivers. The Lions are falling apart and I don't think they can keep up with the Panthers offense, let alone get into a rhythm against the Panthers defense. 

Denver (3-6) @ LA Chargers (7-2) (CBS): TW: Chargers, CV: Chargers
The Broncos were on a bye week and the Chargers got a win against the Raiders last week. The Chargers have been on a roll, winning six straight games and they play a Broncos team that is desperate into getting back into winning ways. Case Keenum has been a decent QB for the team so far but I like the rejuvenated Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense. I like Melvin Gordon getting rushing yards and Keenan Allen getting the receiving yards. Get it done Chargers!

Oakland (1-8) @ Arizona (2-7) (CBS): TW: Cardinals, CV: Cardinals
Both teams took losses last week as the Raiders lost to the Chargers and the Cardinals lost to the Chiefs. The game could be a low-scoring, close affair as the two teams on offense are meh. The Cardinals have Larry Fitzgerald and he alone can dictate how well this game can be played. That's mostly the reason why I like the Cardinals in this game, I can't trust the Raiders enough to give them a benefit of the doubt. 

Philadelphia (4-5) @ New Orleans (8-1) (FOX): TW: Saints, CV: Saints
The Eagles lost to the Cowboys and the Saints got a win against the Bengals. The defending champs are in a big hole and if they want to get back into the postseason, they need to win this game. Against a team that can put up quite the offensive numbers, I don't see the Eagles winning this one. In the Superdome, the crowd can be quite loud and the Eagles will need to take the crowd out early in order to win. Steep hill for the Eagles to climb and I trust the Saints to win. 

Minnesota (5-3-1) @ Chicago (6-3) (NBC): TW: Vikings, CV: Vikings
The Vikings were on a bye week and the Bears beat the Lions last week respectively. The game will be one of the better games of the week. Both teams are top 5 in overall defense and they have good offenses. The game will depend on whether or not the Bears can run the ball against a Vikings defense that is 3rd in run defense. The Bears have yet to play really good competition and we will learn a lot about the Bears this week. I like the Vikings in the matchup. I just hope Stephon Diggs and Adam Thielen will be in the game. 

Kansas City (9-1) @ LA Rams (9-1) (ESPN): TW: Rams, CV: Rams
Both teams got wins last week as the Chiefs beat the Cardinals and the Rams beat the Seahawks. The game will be one of the higher scoring games on the season, it will be a great game on ESPN that has had made it a joke to have bad games on Monday night. The two teams combine for an 18-2 record, 871.1 total offensive yards per game and both quarterbacks have thrown for over 50 touchdowns. The game will come down to which defense can stop the other team enough to score more points in the game. The Rams defense is probably the better of the two and I'll take them in this one. Great way to end the week with a game like this. 

Local TV Schedule (courtesy of 506sports.com, subject to change):

CBS Single:
Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

FOX Early:
Carolina @ Detroit
Kenny Albert, Charles Davis

FOX Late:
Philadelphia @ New Orleans
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

For more information on which game is played in your area, check out: NFL Maps: Week 11

Records:

Tom (me)
2018:
Week 1: 10-5-1
Week 2: 6-9-1

Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 12-3
Week 5: 6-9
Week 6: 10-5
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 11-3
Week 9: 9-4
Week 10: 7-7
Overall: 89-57-2

Cardinal Viking
2018:
Week 1: 8-7-1

Week 2: 9-6-1
Week 3: 5-11
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-6
Week 6: 6-9
Week 7: 12-2
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 9-5
Overall: 85-61-2

See you guys on Monday for the Week 11 Recap column, enjoy the games, and have a great weekend!
-Tom

EDIT #1: Put in Cardinal Viking's picks for the games. 

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