Hello readers! As of writing this piece, the regular season is just two weeks away. Indeed, the Baltimore Ravens will take on the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on September 5th. It'll be here before you know it or even hit you. In this post, I will do my predictions on where the 32 teams will end up by the time the regular season is said and done. Next, I will do the playoff and Super Bowl prediction. Lastly, I will do a prediction on who will win the awards as well as who will lead the league in certain categories. Let's get to work!
Disclaimer and Preseason Predictions
I feel a disclaimer is in order. I do not work for the National Football League nor its television partners or for a particular news organization. All of this is purely my opinion and I am not getting paid whatsoever for these predictions and picks. If I get anything right it is purely my opinion and luck. If I get something wrong then I guess oh well. Anyway, let's get to the Preseason predictions.
Let's start with the AFC.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (1st in AFC East): A lot happened in the offseason as Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs to Houston for some futures. Josh Allen will need to do more with less but they still have James Cook to help him out with a crew of weapons in Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Khalil Shakir from the draft as well. With the pressure on the offense, the defense will need to step up just as much. Pass Rush needs to find a way to get it going. Suffice to say, until proven otherwise, the Bills are still my class of the AFC East.
Miami Dolphins (2nd in AFC East): Miami made the playoffs last season on the front of a stellar offense lead by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. The running game should be a bit better if not as great as 2023. The big question will be the defense. Giving up Christian Wilkins to free agency might cost the Dolphins some wins. Injuries to Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb will pit the shoulders of the offense to keep up with the AFC East race. I think they have more than enough talent to get to 2nd and win the wild card.
New York Jets (3rd in AFC East): The Jets season last year ended in less than five minutes as Aaron Rodgers suffered an Achilles injury. After that first game, the Jets were put into a tailspin of mediocrity and misery. Hopefully Rodgers will be able to last a few more minutes this season than last one. He will need to in order to take advantage of the talent of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense should be a underrated aspect of this team should the quarterback suffers another injury. I think the Jets have the capabilities to earn a playoff spot but I'm not sure.
New England Patriots (4th in AFC East): For the first time since Week 16 of the 1999 season, there won't be a head coach named Bill Belichick patrolling the sidelines. Hoodie and sweatpants and all. Taking over for the legend is Jerod Mayo, a former understudy of Belichick's who earned the opportunity of a lifetime. The former linebacker will have his work cut out for him as the Patriots aren't likely going to be good. The passing game is lacking a bit on weapons. If the combo of Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson can get things going on the ground, they could be a good group. Defensively, the Pats will still have a solid group with a defensive-minded head coach roaming the sidelines.
With the return of Aaron Rodgers, the AFC East could possibly be a 3-team race to the top. Other than the Patriots and Bills, no other team has won the AFC East since 2009. Miami might be the sexy pick for them to take the top spot but their offense will need to step up big.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (1st in AFC North): Baltimore fell short of reaching the Super Bowl and this group looks like to be the group to possibly overthrow the Chiefs in the AFC. Lamar Jackson looks to be the driver's seat in a great offense that got the free agency prize in Derrick Henry. The weapons should be good as well. Defensively the Ravens will get a new coordinator in Zach Orr who should maintain the same system but the losses of Patrick Queen and Geno Stone to free agency will pit the defense in a bind. Should be a group that gets far in the AFC North and well into 2024.
Cincinnati Bengals (2nd in AFC North): Cincy faltered down the stretch in 2023. The biggest reason was that Joe Burrow's health was an issue as he was out for the rest of the season. Without a solid line, the Bengals are one Burrow injury from falling off the cliff again. The group around him will be good and young as Zack Moss and Chase Brown will take the reins for the ground game. Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a contract holdout but Tee Higgins is ready to go. Defensively, the Bengals were awful on defense. Getting Geno Stone from Baltimore via free agency will help them out a bit. I think the Bengals will have a group that can challenge the Ravens but should be playing for a wild card spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3rd in AFC North): Gone is Kenny Pickett and coming in is Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. The upgrade at quarterback will be good for the Steelers offense as they were lacking a bit. The running game should be good as Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will tag team opposing defenses. The wide receiver group will be a mix as George Pickens will likely play for time as the #1 wide receiver. There was talk of Brandon Aiyuk wanting to become a Steeler but as of writing this, he's still a member of the Red & Gold. Defensively, the Steelers still have a group that can help keep them in games. With new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, the Steelers offense could be a more physical offense with an improvement over Matt Canada who the Yinzers wanted gone for quite a while. I think the Steelers could be a dark horse candidate team.
Cleveland Browns (4th in AFC North): The Brownies made the playoffs last year on the shoulders of quarterback Joe Flacco. The former Raven took them to the playoffs and could only reach the Wild Card round against Houston. Gone is him and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt who moved to take over the struggling offense in New England. With the big contract that was given to DeShaun Watson, the Brownies will have to play him again and hope he stays healthy. The defense could be a bit of a oddity but they do have Jim Schwartz running things while Kevin Stefanski runs the offense. The run game, their bread and butter, will be a bit shaky as Nick Chubb could be the one that will have to carry the team. At least they added a weapon in Jerry Jeudy. I think the Browns will fall back to a position that their fans are used to at this point, dead last.
Last year's iteration of the AFC North saw all four teams with a winning record for the first time in the Post-Merger era. This year's version will likely not see that as I think at least one team having more losses than wins. The Ravens-Bengals race to the top could be intriguing down the stretch. Pittsburgh is possibly my dark horse pick to make noise in the AFC North. Cleveland will Cleveland their way through 2024.
AFC South
Houston Texans (1st in AFC South): The Texans were a big surprise in 2023 as the division winner and even won a playoff game. Some caution to the wind could be in order here as C.J. Stroud could be entering the Sophomore jinx. Despite this, the Texans traded for Stefon Diggs to help complement Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On defense they picked up Danielle Hunter from the Vikings to help the pass rush. I like the Texans but as a serious title contenders would be a bit of a high step.
Indianapolis Colts (2nd in AFC South): The Colts faltered a bit on the early going. Anthony Richardson (yeah kind of forgot about that guy) is back for year two in his career. The jury is still out on whether or not the quarterback can be a versatile quarterback and lead a team to a playoff spot. Outside of Richardson, the Colts added Michael Pittman and drafted AD Mitchell. Josh Downs could be a fun option at tight end. Defense could be a bit of a question mark. I think they could have a 9-8 season at best.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3rd in AFC South): Around this time last year, the Jaguars were a hot pick to possibly be a Super Bowl contender and a team that could threaten the Chiefs dominance in the AFC. This year seems just like a miserable sad story. It could be that the Jaguars were 8-3 at one point last year and then finished with a 9-8 record and missed the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence got paid and then will have to work more with less. On defense, the Jags put a lot of capital to rebuild that unit. It will be Ryan Nielsen, defensive coordinator, who will have to help keep the Jaguars in games. It coulb e be a trying year for Jacksonville.
Tennessee Titans (4th in AFC South): Out is Mike Vrabel and in is Brian Callahan. DeAndre Hopkins will have some time to recuperate from injury as he won't be back until possibly October. Calvin Ridley will help bolster a wide receiving corp that needs a bit of help. Will Levis will be the man to help out and carry this team. The running game could be lacking a bit in terms of veteran talent with the loss of Derrick Henry. I don't see a whole lot of noise coming from the Music City but I don't think they'll be completely awful.
The AFC South is a bit of an interesting division. The Texans coming out of the pack and challenging the Jaguars was a bit of a surprise. The division will be up for grabs if any of the starting quarterbacks get injured early on in the year. I don't think the division will be the best out of all of the AFC but it is certainly better than past years.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (1st in AFC West): Big shock I know that two-time defending champions will go for another division championship. The case for the champs is pretty good. The offense should get better and the defense should be just as good. Sure L'Jarius Sneed going away in free agency is going to come back and bite them back a bit. Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will just pick up some random person and turn them into a machine that opposing quarterbacks shake and quiver. Patrick Mahomes will be getting a bit of help as they added Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy in the draft (courtesy of their conference rival Bills). More to come on whether this team can three-peat in the playoff predictions but this team has more than enough talent to win the AFC West.
Los Angeles Chargers (2nd in AFC West): The Chargers finally got rid of the anchor weighing them down in Brandon Staley and got the complete opposite in Jim Harbaugh. History says that the first year of a Harbaugh coached team will do well. A lot of it depends on Justin Herbert health. Austin Ekeler did move on from LA and it will be up to Josh Palmer and Ladd McConkey to get this team's offense to where they need to go. Defense will stay the same as they didn't see movement in that part of the team. I think the Chargers could be a playoff team but if Herbert is injured they will falter down the way. The ceiling is a possible playoff team.
Denver Broncos (3rd in AFC West): This time last year was full of questions on whether the marriage of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson would last. It didn't take long for the union to reach its breaking point. With Wilson gone to the Steelers, Sean Payton can finally mold this team in his image. Bo Nix could be a solid starter but it will be up to the wide receiver corp to guide this team to where they want to go. Javonte Williams is an underrated running back but his line will need to give them a chance to do something. Defense is a bit of a worry but that could be something that the Broncos could seek in the draft come next spring. I think the ceiling for them is 8-9 wins.
Las Vegas Raiders (4th in the AFC West): At this time last year, the Raiders were in another year of Josh McDaniels coaching the team. The guy would last just 25 games going back to 2022. Antonio Pierce would take over and help lead the Raiders to a close winning season. Josh Jacobs left via free agency and I'm not sure if the running game can match the production that the former Raider put up. Zamir White and Alexander Mattison will have to pick up the slack. I like Gardner Minshew for the memes but as a solid starter is a bit of a stretch. The defense could be another average unit but they did add Christian Wilkins from Miami to help with the pass rush with Maxx Crosby. Is it possible that the Raiders make noise in the division? Possibly, but the recent history of the Raiders seems to say otherwise.
The AFC West does have the defending champions in it and the rest of the division just wishes that they could knock the Chiefs off their perch. All three teams could possibly take the spot as 2nd fiddle to the Chiefs but they won't likely move past them. I keep thinking that the division will be the best but it always lets me down.
The AFC in general is likely going to be a bloodbath again as the Chiefs are the favorite to win the conference yet again. All the other teams in the conference want to overtake them but will it be enough to do it? More to come on that in a bit later. Let's look at the NFC.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles (1st in NFC East): Philly at this time last year made it to a Super Bowl. They certainly looked like they would make it back again but then the losses started to come. The Week 12 win over the Buffalo Bills put the Eagles record at 10-1 and looked like they would run away with the NFC East. They would go 1-5 after that game. The Eagles case to making back to a Super Bowl will be intriguing. They added Saquon Barkley and got a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore. Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox also retired in the offseason. In their place they put forth Cam Jurgens and Jordan Davis. The Eagles case for winning the NFC East is this: no team has not repeated as division champs. I think they have the capabilities to do it.
Dallas Cowboys (2nd in NFC East): Dallas has both a low floor and a high ceiling. It is typically the case for them. After laying the biggest egg in franchise history in losing to the Packers last year, the seat to Mike McCarthy is starting to get hot. The seat was so hot that the head coach might've gotten shown the door and Bill Belichick to walk right in. The Cowboys will need to get a lot more of Dak Prescott this year while Tony Pollard is gone. In his place is Ezekiel Elliott. Dan Quinn is also gone and in his place is Mike Zimmer. I think the Cowboys still make the playoffs but they falter down the stretch.
Washington Commanders (3rd in NFC East): Year 2 of the new ownership and boy did they clean house. Gone is Ron Rivera and Dan Quinn is back in the head coaching ranks. The Commanders drafted Jayden Daniels in the draft. The big concern is the offensive line and ensuring that the wide receiving corp can help out the rookie. Austin Ekeler needs to also find a renaissance and maintain the production that he had in the Chargers. Despite the question marks, maybe Washington could be a team that might get lucky and get 8 wins.
New York Giants (4th in NFC East): The G-Men were on the heels of a renaissance season in 2022 and they fell back to earth in 2023. The reason for the fall was obvious, the offense stunk, Daniel Jones had a regressive year and was injured and there wasn't stability at that position. Tommy DeVito being a meme was kind of fun though. The Giants success will come down to the offensive line and having a rebound year for Daniel Jones. Malik Nabers getting some playtime will be fun. Saquon Barkley leaving the Giants might be a bit of a concern as they don't have the talent at running back to help out the offense. Devin Singletary is a question mark in terms of production. Brian Burns might be a worthy option to getting the pass rush back to prominence. The Giants are a weird team and I don't trust them. I don't see them doing a whole lot.
Another year another rough year for the NFC East. I think its going to be a race with Philadelphia and Dallas going for the top while the Commanders and Giants being the fodder for the two. Washington might not be the slouch that they were in the past but things are looking up.
NFC North
Detroit Lions (1st in NFC North): The Lions did what they were expected to do in 2023. Now it is time to see if they can do something that they haven't done in a long time, go to the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. The depth is arguably the best in the NFL. The offense might've gotten better with a year into them gelling together. The defense might get better as well with an improved secondary that practically let opposing wide receivers run rampant. Unless they really fall off a cliff, I don't see the Lions dropping out of 1st place. Let's just hope.
Green Bay Packers (2nd in NFC North): The Pack were a possible playoff team in 2022 but faltered. In 2023, they looked like a bit more of a faltering team in the 1st half, then they won seven of their last nine games to finish with a 9-8 record and won a playoff game. We shall see if the Packers can get a productive, high octane year from Jordan Love. The weapons that he has seems to suggest that he should do well. The defense might be a bit of a question mark with a new system from Jeff Hafley. The schedule might be a bit of a daunting task as the Pack have to travel to Brazil in Week 1 and then play against a bunch of playoff teams from last year. I think the Pack will come short of 1st.
Chicago Bears (3rd in NFC North): The hype for the Bears is astounding. Drafting Caleb Williams as the #1 overall pick and then drafting Rome Odunze. The Bears also added Keenan Allen to complement D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet to the pass catching group. I feel the hype is a bit much. The Bears didn't do a whole lot in 2023 as they went 7-10. The defense is still kind of questionable as well. Suffice to say, the offense should get better however. I don't see the Bears being the team that the world expects to see.
Minnesota Vikings (4th in NFC North): Free Agency, injuries and just plain snakebit on certain players is making things tough for the Purple Gang. Gone is Kirk Cousins and in is Sam Darnold. J.J. McCarthy out for the season will hurt but Darnold is somewhat of a capable starter. I just question on how well he can succeed in the offense. Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler were the prizes of free agency for the Vikes as they will help out fill the hole left by Alexander Mattison and Dalvin Cook. The issue for the Vikings is also whether or not the Bears and Packers can play well. If they do then its a log jam that the Vikings will likely see themselves in the basement.
The NFC North might actually be the best division in the NFC with talent all around for all four teams. Indeed old school fans would like to see nothing more than a return to the Black and Blue division of the 1970's.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1st in NFC South): Tampa was somewhat of a surprise team in 2023. Baker Mayfield and the offense really kept the gravy train rolling where Tom Brady left off. Who would've thought that Baker Mayfield would be the successor to the goat. I'm kind of bullish on their defense and if they can keep their offense going they should find success in 2024. It depends on how well Baker Mayfield can keep it going.
Atlanta Falcons (2nd in NFC South): The Falcons lacked the presence of a quality quarterback last year. They went out and got Kirk Cousins and apparently drafted his successor as well. Kind of a weird move to do that. Despite that, the Falcons offense should find some success on the same production level that they had when Matt Ryan was quarterback. The defense might get better or it could get worse. The shining light is Raheem Morris's ability to get more out of less. It could be a fight between the Falcons and the Buccaneers for the top spot.
New Orleans Saints (3rd in NFC South): We weren't sure what to make of the Derek Carr led Saints heading into 2023. Fortunately, they did live up to that expectation. They didn't do a whole lot on offense and the defense didn't make things interesting either. A lot of capital was spent on rebuilding the offensive line. The Saints did also get Chase Young to bolster the defensive line which could be an interesting move. A lot of risk in putting the Saints above anywhere but 3rd but they shouldn't be terrible to be in the basement.
Carolina Panthers (4th in NFC South): Floor for the Panthers: 3-4 wins. Ceiling for them: 5-6. The Panthers were the worst team in football and they didn't even get the 1st overall pick in this spring's draft. A new year with a new head coach in Dave Canales who is quite the unknown if there ever was one. The offense should find themselves with some help in getting Diontae Johnson and picking Xavier Legette in the draft. The defense will likely stay the same but a tish worse now that Brian Burns is now a Giant. Won't be a successful year in Carolina but hopefully better than last year.
Not a lot of solid teams for the NFC South. The shift from the Buccaneers and Saints to the Buccaneers and Falcons will make this a division where two teams will fight hard for. The Saints and Panthers will try to knock them down a peg but I don't see the two teams doing a whole lot this year.
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams (1st in NFC West): The big surprise I think will be a rebound year for the Rams. A risk that I feel will be worth it. The case for it: Matthew Stafford is healthy, the wide receiving corp will get better. The running game will get back to normal I feel with Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson. At least on a physical level. The case against it: Puka Nacua not being 100% throughout the season and Cooper Kupp having more of the same. The offense will need to step up. Aaron Donald retired and Raheem Morris became the head coach in Atlanta. While the Rams can't replace a sure-fire hall of famer in Aaron Donald, they did add Braden Fiske and Jared Verse as a replacement.
San Francisco 49ers (2nd in NFC West): The 49ers were one score from winning it all in the Super Bowl. The case for them to make it there again is pretty strong. They did resign Brandon Aiyuk despite a long drawn out drama saga that almost felt like a soap opera. Trent Williams is a question mark for the start of the season with a holdout. Christian McCaffrey is a question mark with his health as well. The talent for the 49ers is unquestionably great. The rest of the division will get better and will look to knock the defending NFC champs off their pedestal. The key to a Super Bowl return is of course Brock Purdy.
Seattle Seahawks (3rd in NFC West): A strange year incoming for Seattle. Pete Carroll is gone in favor of a younger staff. Mike MacDonald will take over as head coach. The book is still out on him but he should have somewhat of a decent roster to work with. Geno Smith will look to improve with a good receiving group with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The running game should get better as well. MacDonald's expertise is defense and he will look to improve a group that finished 25th in points against. A winning season should be expected for the new coach and his group.
Arizona Cardinals (4th in NFC West): A down year for the Cardinals last year. In year 2 for Jonathan Gannon, he will need to see improvements. One of the improvements that should help right away is Marvin Harrison Jr. as a weapon for Kyler Murray to throw to. The upside for Kyler was that he should be healthy for the season, something that he didn't have at the start of last year. The defense is still a question mark heading to the year but at least fireworks should be prevalent as the offense should put up points on the board. It should be a better year than the 4-13 trainwreck that was 2023 but not quite a playoff year for the Cards.
The NFC West is possibly the best division in the conference. Two of the last three conference champions were from the division. The Rams-Niners series will be intriguing. A lot of questions still remain. Can the 49ers reach the big game again? Can the Rams finally overcome big brother and dominate the division? How well will Mike MacDonald do in his first year? What is the ceiling for the Cardinals in 2024? So many questions.
So for the NFC vs AFC debate. I think the power has shifted a bit back to the middle where the AFC and NFC are pretty level. The Chiefs are the likely favorite to do it all again while the Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and Texans hope to knock them off. In the NFC, the 49ers are trying to get back there again while the Packers, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs and Rams hope to be the ones to reach the big game.
Playoff Predictions
With 4-5 months of carnage that is the regular season finally reduces the amount of teams left from 32 to 14, teams can finally begin to start the 2nd season. Time to expect where the 14 teams stand and who makes it past the massive carnage and reach the ultimate prize. Let's start with the NFC.
Seeding
1st seed: Philadelphia Eagles
2nd seed: Los Angeles Rams
3rd seed: Detroit Lions
4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5th seed: Dallas Cowboys
6th seed: San Francisco 49ers
7th seed: Green Bay Packers
Super Wild Card Weekend
Rams over Packers
Lions over 49ers
Buccaneers over Cowboys
Divisional
Eagles over Buccaneers
Lions over Rams
Conference Championship
Eagles over Lions
Next is the AFC...
Seeding
1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs
2nd seed: Baltimore Ravens
3rd seed: Buffalo Bills
4th seed: Houston Texans
5th seed: Cincinnati Bengals
6th seed: Miami Dolphins
7th seed: New York Jets
Super Wild Card Weekend
Ravens over Jets
Bills over Dolphins
Bengals over Texans
Divisional
Chiefs over Bengals
Ravens over Bills
Conference Championship
Ravens over Chiefs
Super Bowl LIX Prediction
Drum roll please...
............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Ravens over Eagles
Yep you saw that correctly. I am predicting that the Chiefs will not three-peat. I repeat WILL NOT THREE-PEAT! I just think that the pressure will be too much on them and that everyone will be playing them a little harder to knock them off their perch. Time for a new champion to arise!
Awards Predictions
With the preseason and playoff predictions out of the way, time for awards predictions. Here I will predict who will take Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year for the respective offense and defensive players, the Offensive and Defensive players of the year, Most Valuable Player and Comeback Player of the Year. One of my favorite parts of predicting.
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Dallas Turner
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Marvin Harrison Jr.
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson
NFL Most Valuable Player: Josh Allen
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell
Hot Takes
Mike McCarthy will be let go as Cowboys head coach prior to the Super Bowl
Tyreek Hill will achieve 2,000 receiving yards.
No team(s) will have 14 or more wins
We will have four quarterbacks throw for more than 4,000 yards
Alright. That's all for this post. Expect the Week 1 picks post sometime on Monday or Tuesday (I'm writing this portion on Saturday). With the picks post, the season gets going and the biggest seasons in sports gets underway as the National Football League is back! See you all soon!
-Tom
Rest in Peace Johnny Gaudreau (1993-2024) and Matthew Gaudreau (1994-2024)
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