NFL 2024 Week 18 Picks

Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The regular season finale is here. By week's end 14 of the 32 teams will move on and continue their season and the rest will go home and plan for next season. There are still a few teams left to lock up either their division or lock up a playoff spot. In this post, I will highlight the latest playoff picture, a preview and picks for Week 18, the Early and Late TV broadcast pairings that FOX and CBS will have for the Sunday afternoon slate. A lot to get to, so let's get started!

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 18

The final week still has a few teams left to get in. There's one division yet to be decided while there is a wild card spot yet to be decided as well. Let's look at the NFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Detroit Lions (14-2)(clinched playoff berth)

2nd seed: Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) (clinched NFC East)

3rd seed: Los Angeles Rams (10-6) (clinched NFC West)

4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

5th seed: Minnesota Vikings (14-2) (clinched playoff berth)

6th seed: Washington Commanders (11-5) (clinched playoff berth)

7th seed: Green Bay Packers (11-5) (Clinched playoff berth)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Washington @ LA Rams

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay

In the Hunt

Atlanta (8-8)

Better Luck Next Year

Seattle (9-7), Dallas (7-9), Arizona (7-9), San Francisco (0-0), New Orleans (5-11), Chicago (4-12), Carolina (4-12), NY Giants (3-13)

Tampa can clinch the NFC South with a win or Falcons loss. Minnesota can clinch the NFC North, #1 seed and homefield advantage with a win against Detroit. A few things to keep an eye on as Falcons and Buccaneers aren't playing against each other. Let's look at the AFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) (Clinched AFC West and homefield advantage)

2nd seed: Buffalo Bills (13-3) (Clinched AFC East)

3rd seed: Baltimore Ravens (11-5) (clinched playoff berth)

4th seed: Houston Texans (9-7) (clinched AFC South)

5th seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) (clinched playoff berth)

6th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) (clinched playoff berth)

7th seed: Denver Broncos (9-7)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Denver @ Buffalo

LA Chargers @ Baltimore

Pittsburgh @ Houston

In the Hunt

Miami (8-8), Cincinnati (8-8)

Better Luck Next Year

Indianapolis (7-9), NY Jets (4-12), Las Vegas (4-12), Jacksonville (4-12), Cleveland (3-13), Tennessee (3-13), New England (3-13)

Baltimore can clinch the AFC North with a win or Steelers loss. Same story for the Steelers. Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a win or a Dolphins loss or tie plus Bengals loss or tie.

Week 18 Preview

The eighteenth week of the National Football League's regular season starts in Baltimore, Maryland and finish up in Detroit, Michigan. The week features all division games. There will be eight NFC games and eight AFC games. Week 18 will have two Saturday games, eight early games five late games and a Sunday night game. Both FOX and CBS will have doubleheaders this week. Let's get to the picks

Week 18 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern.

Cleveland (3-13) @ Baltimore (11-5) (ABC; 4:30 pm)

Pick: Ravens

The Browns lost to the Dolphins and the Ravens beat the Texans last week. Cleveland has had a rough season. Not to say that Browns fans aren't used to it. Last week, the Browns offense wasn't able to do a lot of anything. Their offense is banged up by injuries, their quarterback situation is pretty much left to be desired. The Browns face off against the Ravens in the season finale. The last time these two teams met it was an upset victory for the Browns. Things have changed since then. Barring the Ravens reverting back to their early days, I don't see the Browns pulling off a victory in this one. It doesn't seem likely. 

Baltimore would just need to do one thing to clinch their division: win. John Harbaugh is certainly looking to seek revenge over the Browns upset win earlier in the season. Baltimore has done it with their versatile balanced attack with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry running the football with the occasional pass play. With a defense that is just as problematic for offenses, I think the Ravens take this game and make clear that they're AFC North champions for another year. I'll take the Ravens. 

All-time series: Ravens lead 36-15

Cincinnati (8-8) @ Pittsburgh (10-6) (ABC; 8:00 pm)

Pick: Steelers

The Bengals beat the Broncos and the Steelers lost to the Chiefs last week. Cincinnati is close to doing something most people never thought they would be able to. They had started 0-3 to start the season and proceed to go on a 8-5 record since then. The offense of Cincy's has been quite the thing to watch. The defense is well left to be desired as they give up about as much points as they score. The Bengals will need to win this game and get some help to get into the tournament. 

Pittsburgh has been having a rough go of it with losing games this late in the season. You'd like to have some wins this time of year to gain some momentum. They certainly had that momentum going for them when they went to the Super Bowl in 2008. The offense has been kind of the big thing that has been hindering them this part of the season. Russell Wilson has been one of the reasons. Something has to be off with him to be that weird. Defense will need to rule the day in the season finale. The Steelers have a playoff berth but they look vulnerable. I'll take the Steelers despite the offense. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 71-39

Buffalo (13-3) @ New England (3-13) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Bills beat the Jets and the Patriots lost to the Chargers last week. Buffalo has had quite the season. They aren't in the drivers seat for the #1 seed but they aren't likely going to drop out of the 2nd seed either. It could be possible that they might rest starters for this game and have the Patriots possibly get a win by a field goal. I'm under the assumption that the Bills will start for a part of the game and let the 2nd stringers go and make a name for themselves. Hard to say what will happen. They could proceed to put up a 40 burger on the Patriots and they salt the earth around Gillette Stadium. 

Drake Maye has been the best thing to happen for the Patriots this season. The quarterback, despite the offensive line issues and turnovers, has a touchdown pass streak going into eight games. The team isn't very good on the rest of the offense and the defense has easily taken a step back. The press has given their opinions that it is possible that head coach Jerod Mayo will return next year. For the sake of rebuilding, it is a given to let him try to build something. This game, will depend on whether if the Bills will rest their starters or if they just go all gung-ho on the Patriots and put the hurt on them. The offense hasn't had a great year and I can't expect the defense to make much noise in this one. I'll take the Bills. 

All-time series: Patriots lead 78-51-1

Carolina (4-12) @ Atlanta (8-8) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Falcons

The Panthers lost to the Buccaneers and the Falcons lost to the Commanders last week. Carolina has improved a little bit since last year. They just haven't made a big step. The offseason will have to be emphasized on the defense. A good defense will help their offense get better. For this game, the Panthers might do alright against Michael Penix Jr. a quarterback with a small sample size of stats. Or they could just get walked over by him. The key to a Panthers win will be getting Chuba Hubbard back as he is the biggest cog in the offense for the Panthers. 

The verdict on Michael Penix Jr. is still out there. With two starts under his belt with 463 passing yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. I'm not sure what to think about Penix Jr. He is a talent with potential who is probably more of a pocket passer at this point than being a running quarterback that can make plays with his feet. Atlanta's offense in the run game did well against the Panthers but their offense in general should do well as the Panthers defense is kind of a walking carpet in the NFC South. I have to expect that Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgier to do well in this one. I'll take the Falcons. 

All-time series: Falcons lead 37-22

Chicago (4-12) @ Green Bay (11-5) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Packers

The Bears lost to the Seahawks and the Packers lost to the Vikings last week. A lot of hype had been placed on the Bears in the preseason. With many additions from free agency and draft to the offense. The Bears looked like to be the team to break out of the basement and have a quarterback to really make some noise. Like most things, the hype would deflate. Chicago hasn't won a game since whooping the Jaguars in London back in October. It really started with the loss to Washington. Anyway, for this game the Bears offense will keep this close but the Packers defense has to have a chip on its shoulder and really go after Caleb Williams in this one. I can't wait to stop talking about them until at least later next year. 

Green Bay has pretty much played 3rd fiddle to the Lions and Vikings this season. It might play out well to their liking as the Lions and Vikings will play to beat up each other in the finale. Green Bay has had a good season, they gotten a revitalized season out of Josh Jacobs and Jordan Love has done better as of late. The Packers might struggle to get a win if Christian Watson isn't available to help out the passing game. The last time these two teams played was a blocked field goal by Green Bay as it was a potential game-winning one. I have to think that the Packers will try to avoid that in this game. I'll take the Pack. 

All-time series: Packers lead 108-95-6

Houston (9-7) @ Tennessee (3-13) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Texans

The Texans lost to the Ravens and the Titans lost to the Jaguars last week. The Texans have done a few things right this season. They have progressed along and won the AFC South as well as steady the ship that is CJ Stroud's sophomore season. That's about it as Houston is perhaps the weakest of the AFC division winners. Vulnerable is what I would characterize them as. The offense has been somewhat of a mixed bag as they can beat up on lesser opponents but if they want to get to that next level they need to beat the best. At times that level seems to be a mountain. I think the Texans should be able to win this game but unless proven otherwise, they're a one and done team next week. 

Tennessee has been pretty awful on offense. Most of their issues has been on the quarterback but offensive line issues and the offensive line. On defense, the Titans have something to work with as if you actually looked at their numbers this season, they would be one of the better defenses. They have the #1 ranked pass defense allowing just 189.9 yards/game. Getting a person that can disrupt the pass rush would be an ideal one as they are 22nd in stopping the run. In this game, the Joe Mixon vs the defensive front will be something to keep an eye on. Suffice to say, the Texans should win this game. I'll take them as they are just not good enough to keep up with the Texans enough to get a win. I could be wrong. 

All-time series: Titans lead 24-21

Jacksonville (4-12) @ Indianapolis (7-9) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Colts

The Jaguars beat the Titans and the Colts lost to the Giants last week. Jacksonville has had a rough season this year. A lot of their problems stem from the offense with quarterback. Trevor Lawrence has off year and hasn't had a healthy season either. It is a limp to the finish for the Jaguars as they missed the playoffs for the 2nd straight season. The future is somewhat decent as they do have a high draft pick next spring. In this game the Jaguars will have to contend with a Colts team that got eliminated last week and will have to play for their jobs. Jacksonville will as well. The Jaguars might struggle in this one as they are not good at stopping the pass or the run let alone generating offense. 

Indianapolis laid an egg against the Giants. An even bigger egg was missing the playoffs again as they haven't been in the tournament since 2020. The Colts defense let 45 points go by them against one of the worser offenses in the league.. Fortunately for them, the Jaguars are not a great offense. You have to expect defensive coordinator Gus Bradley to light a fire in his defensive players. If they can go after Mac Jones in this game, they should have better results. On offense, they should have an advantage as well as whoever is quarterback can pass the ball fairly well on these guys. Despite missing the playoffs, they might be able to get to a 8-9 season. I'll take the Colts. 

All-time series: Colts lead 27-20

New Orleans (5-11) @ Tampa Bay (9-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Buccaneers

The Saints lost to the Raiders and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers last week. The Saints are just limping along to the finishing line this season. They won't be playing next week but after two weeks, you had half expecting them to make it there. They were scoring points left and right and then the wheels fell off after losing to these Buccaneers at home. The Saints dilemma is the quarterback. They haven't had stability at quarterback as they have gone to three different quarterbacks in Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. New Orleans also fired their head coach as well. In this game, the Saints have opportunity to play spoiler but they need to play their best ball this season and get a win. Atlanta will be watching close by likely as they also play during the early window. How they can achieve this: taking the ball away from Baker Mayfield and sustain drives. Vegas tabbed this game being the Bucs as 13-point favorites. 

Tampa Bay has opportunity to get its fourth straight division crown in a division that had seen a different champion win it every year. To win the division is very simple: win and they're in. Their opponents won't likely make it easy but it is rarely ever easy in the National Football League. Tampa's offensive line is one of the underrated in the league as they can both support the run and pass plays. I think the running game will be wise to use in this game. Ball protection will be ideal as Baker Mayfield has been known to play a gunslinger role and toss passes that land in the opposing side. I think the Buccaneers will just be too much for the Saints to handle. I'll take the Bucs. 

All-time series: Saints lead 40-26

NY Giants (3-13) @ Philadelphia (13-3) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Giants got a win against the Colts and the Eagles beat the Cowboys last week. New York gave its fans some glimmer of hope as they put on an offensive showcase and hung 45 points on the Colts and sent their playoff hopes down the drain in the New Jersey sewer system. The Giants this week will hope to play a similar fashion game against rival Philadelphia as they hope to dash some momentum in them. The offense has seem some promising stars in Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers getting better and better each week. I think they will have a tough time against the Eagles despite Saquon Barkley not playing in this game. 

Philadelphia has had a great year. The catalyst of that successful season has been Saquon Barkley. He crossed the 2,000 yard plateau this season and almost gunned for the single season rushing mark set by Erik Dickerson. The hall of famer will be at ease as Barkley will be sitting this one out. The Eagles offense without Barkley has some players that can be just as good. Kenneth Gainwell hasn't had a lot of carries but I have to expect that he will be used a fair bit in this one. I'm not sure who else will rest but I have to expect Jalen Hurts will sit this one out as well. Despite the starters resting, I think the Eagles will take this one. 

All-time series: Eagles lead 94-88-2

Washington (11-5) @ Dallas (7-9) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Cowboys

The Commanders beat the Falcons and the Cowboys lost to the Eagles last week. Washington has had a good season. It is their first season with more than 10 wins since 1991 when they won 14 games and won a Super Bowl. The potential of Jayden Daniels is quite good but the numbers that he has is not quite up to the Mark Rypien numbers in that season. Jayden Daniels is quite possibly the lock for Rookie of the Year on offense. With 25 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns with 3,530 passing yards. I think it is possible. In this game, the Commanders are going to have to have to play their better games in this one. If the defense can make Dallas be a one-dimensional offense they should do well as the Cowboys were really limited on the running game last week. Rendering Cooper Rush to beat you by himself will help. On offense, jump on Dallas early. 

Dallas was having a particularly rough season at least for quite a while. They were at one point 3-7 with a pretty bleak outlook. While they are out of the playoffs, they do have something to build on and Dak Prescott will be back by the time next season starts. In this game, the Cowboys might have a good shot to get a win. The last time these two teams met it was a defensive struggle and then the 4th quarter happened and the Cowboys and Commanders traded blows where the Cowboys won by a 34-26 victory. Dallas had a rough time running the football. They also turned the ball early and that was one of the reasons why they got blown out by Philadelphia. They will need to protect the ball as well. I'll take the Cowboys to win by a field goal. I can't trust the Commanders to win against a fairly decent offense in Dallas. 

All-time series: Cowboys lead 79-48-2

Kansas City (15-1) @ Denver (9-7) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Broncos

The Chiefs beat the Steelers and the Broncos lost to the Bengals last week. Kansas City locked up the #1 seed in the AFC and have the best record in the NFL. The Chiefs don't have a lot to play for in this game but they do have a chance to become the first team to go 16-1 in the 17-game schedule era. Patrick Mahomes and the starters will not play in this game. This will mean that journeyman Carson Wentz will get a chance to play. He will play in his 2nd straight Week 18 game as he played as a member of the Rams last season. I don't know what the verdict on Wentz as a Chief is but his track record hasn't been great. I think the Broncos defense might do alright against him. 

Denver has had a remarkable season. They achieved their first winning season in almost a decade and they have a chance to get to the playoffs for the first time since 2015 when they won the Super Bowl. The Broncos just need to win and they're in. Bo Nix and the offense has had a good year with Nix being a reasonable candidate for Rookie of the Year. The defense has come around and do well. Last week, the Broncos missed a chance to clinch a playoff spot but they can do so in this one. As long as Bo Nix doesn't throw interceptions and play what he is capable of and go after Carson Wentz, the Broncos should be able to win. Plus it is also in Denver where the altitude will be a factor. 

All-time series: Chiefs lead 73-56

LA Chargers (10-6) @ Las Vegas (4-12) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Chargers

The Chargers beat the Patriots and the Raiders beat the Saints last week. Jim Harbaugh has turned the culture of the Chargers around and got them to the playoffs for the first time in two seasons. The offense is more balanced as Justin Herbert is passing better but not quite the gunslinger or pure passer that he was prior to Harbaugh's arrival. The running game has been the most improved JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards running the football. The defense isn't a slouch either. I think the thing to keep an eye on is the Chargers defense vs the Raiders offense. 

The Raiders have had a rough one of a season. The offense has had a trying time finding stability. Sad fact of life that the quarterback will get the blame for anything that goes wrong on offense. The Raiders case is pretty much they are not that good at quarterback. Aidan O'Connell hasn't proven to be a solid starter that can get touchdowns in the league. The good news for the Raiders is that they have won two straight games. Also, they have a solid talent in tight end with Brock Bowers which seemed like a weird pick up when they already had a tight end that was good. The Raiders tend to win these matchups but I'm leaning towards the Chargers due to having a better offense. I'll take the Chargers. 

All-time series: Raiders lead 69-59-2

Miami (8-8) @ NY Jets (4-12) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Dolphins

The Dolphins beat the Browns and the Jets lost to the Bills last week. Miami has had a rough but good season kind of. More average than anything. Tua Tagovailoa has spent a fair amount of time in injury. He didn't play last week as Tyler Huntley started against Cleveland. Huntley will likely start again as Tagovailoa is dealing with a hip injury. The last time the Dolphins and Jets met it was a overtime thriller won it on a late touchdown 32-26 victory. I would assume the gap between the teams is more level. Huntley played well as he threw and rushed for a touchdown while only missing on four passes. the Jets defense is fairly good so I would assume that he might struggle a bit. 

New York was supposed to have at least 10 wins at this point of the season. Much to everyone's surprise, they have just four wins. Aaron Rodgers has been the reason for the blame but rightly so for the blame. New York's running game hasn't been the best it should be either. Discipline on offense is the thing that hurts a football team as well as turnovers. The Jets had more penalties than points last week. I would have to expect more of the same as they take on the limping Dolphins. Miami needs to win and have some help in order to get in. The Jets could play spoiler as the Dolphins have more to lose than to really gain at this point. I don't trust the Jets so I'll take the Dolphins. 

All-time series: Dolphins lead 61-56-1

Seattle (9-7) @ LA Rams (10-6) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Seahawks

The Seahawks beat the Bears and the Rams beat the Cardinals last week. Seattle was having a kind of successful season. At least somewhat successful under new head coach Mike MacDonald. It is something to build off of for next year. The Seahawks in this game don't have a lot to play for but the opportunity to take over the series tally as both teams are tied with 27 wins. Geno Smith has had kind of an off year with 15 interceptions which pretty much leads the league. He does have 4,000 yards this season. Seattle's defense has been a bit of a question mark for most of the season and their offense has as well. 

The Rams have locked up the NFC West and won't likely move much forward or backward at this point. As a result of this, Matthew Stafford will rest and backup Jimmy Garoppolo will start. Yeah I kind of forgot that he was still in the league. It is hard to say what to expect from the former Patriot and 49ers player. The guy is still relatively fresh this season and it has to be expected that he will provide some offense. I'm not sure who else will sit but I have to expect that the Rams offense can still provide some help to their defense and get a win. The fact that Stafford is resting I would assume that Cooper Kupp will sit and Puka Nacua. I'll take the Seahawks as a safe bet. 

All-time series: Series tied 27-27

San Francisco (6-10) @ Arizona (7-9) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Cardinals

The 49ers lost to the Lions and the Cardinals lost to the Rams last week. Both teams are limping to the finish and will not play next week. San Francisco had the expectation that they would make it past this week and into the playoffs. Injuries and inconsistent play has doomed their season to a current 6-10 campaign. For this game, the 49ers will likely not start Brock Purdy and that spells pretty much doom for their chances to get passing touchdowns at least a lot of them. Purdy and 12 other 49ers will likely not play in this game. A sad thing as the offseason will mean a lot of turnover. For this game, the Cardinals might find some advantage in the passing game and the run game if most of the 49ers starters are banged up. I would have to assume the Cardinals defense won't allow 30 points. 

Arizona has as well faced a lot of injuries and adversity this season. They had at one point had a 6-4 record with their lone win during that time against New England. The offense and defense have largely been the blame on the collapse but perhaps more on Kyler Murray since he's the offense's scapegoat. He just looks a little off and not himself at times. Against a banged up 49ers team and without most of their offensive starters, I would have to expect that the Cardinals to put up points like a juggernaut at times. I would be surprised if the 49ers win this game and allow likely starter Brandon Allen 3-4 touchdowns on the Cardinals defense. I'll take Arizona. 

All-time series: 49ers lead 36-30

Minnesota (14-2) @ Detroit (14-2) (NBC; 8:20 pm)

Pick: Vikings

The Vikings beat the Packers and the Lions beat the 49ers last week. Oh baby, what a season finale this will be. This is the kind of game that you don't really know who is going to win. Minnesota and Detroit have 14 wins each in the NFC North and that doesn't happen very often in the National Football League. It'll be a war in Ford Field. The Vikings in this game have probably the better passing offense than the Lions but they don't have a great run offense. The game will likely come down to who has the ball last and if they have the lead when they have the said ball. Which team that can get the first turnover and who can really get stops. 

Detroit is having one of its best seasons in their history. They have never won 14 games in a season let alone 15. Then there's Minnesota who was in the middle of a rebuilding year (at least we thought) and they too have 14 wins. The Lions offense should do fine as they can hit you in a multitude of ways. Either the run with three different players or by the pass with a multitude of wide receivers. I do think that the Lions defense is not at good as the Vikings defense, both of them pride on stopping the run. The last time these two teams met it was a Lions win 31-29 with the Lions Jake Bates hitting a field goal late in the game. It's a toss-up and might come down to a eeny meeny miny moe pick. The pick is Vikings. 

All-time series: Vikings lead 80-44-2

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

Carolina @ Atlanta

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

Buffalo @ New England

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Houston @ Tennessee

Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, Jay Feely

CBS Late

Kansas City @ Denver

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

LA Chargers @ Las Vegas

Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

FOX Early

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

Washington @ Dallas

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

Chicago @ Green Bay

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis

Jason Benetti, Brady Quinn

FOX Late

Miami @ NY Jets

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

Seattle @ LA Rams

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

San Francisco @ Arizona

Chris Myers, Mark Schlereth

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024 Maps: Week 18

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11

Week 6: 13-1

Week 7: 13-2

Week 8: 9-7

Week 9: 12-3

Week 10: 10-4

Week 11: 11-3

Week 12: 7-6

Week 13: 14-2

Week 14: 11-3

Week 15: 13-3

Week 16: 12-4

Week 17: 12-4

Total: 184-73

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Sunday night game for the Week 18 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom