NFL 2024 Week 11 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is soon upon us yet again. With the regular season hitting the double digits with weeks, so to is the playoff picture to keep an eye on. The regular season still has about eight weeks left and there's plenty of teams still left to get a playoff spot. In this post, I'll do a playoff picture for the week, a Week 11 preview and picks for the games and the Early & Late TV Broadcast pairings that FOX and CBS will put forth for the Sunday afternoon games. Let's get to work!

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 11

Let's take a look at the AFC...

Seeding

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)

2nd seed: Buffalo Bills (8-2)

3rd seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)

4th seed: Houston Texans (6-4)

5th seed: Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

6th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

7th seed: Denver Broncos (5-5)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups 

Denver @ Buffalo

LA Chargers @ Pittsburgh

Baltimore @ Houston

In the Hunt

Indianapolis (4-6), Cincinnati (4-6), Miami (3-6), NY Jets (3-7), New England (3-7), Cleveland (2-7), Tennessee (2-7), Las Vegas (2-7), Jacksonville (2-8)

The big thing to keep an eye on is the Ravens-Steelers matchup as this could shake up the playoff picture. It should be interesting as well if the Bills can knock the Chiefs off their perch this week as well. They aren't in the same record but if the Chiefs lose a few games and the Bills win a few games, they would have the head-to-head record. Something to keep in mind. Let's take a look at the NFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Detroit Lions (8-1)

2nd seed: Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

3rd seed: Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

4th seed: Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

5th seed: Minnesota Vikings (7-2)

6th seed: Washington Commanders (7-3)

7th seed: Green Bay Packers (6-3)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Washington @ Atlanta

Minnesota @ Arizona

In the hunt

San Francisco (5-4), Chicago (4-5), Seattle (4-5), LA Rams (4-5), Tampa Bay (4-6), Dallas (3-6), New Orleans (3-7), Carolina (3-7), NY Giants (2-8)

A bit less exciting for the NFC. If the Lions lose a game and the Vikings win one, the Lions would have the head-to-head record as the Lions won against Minnesota a few weeks ago. A big thing to keep an eye on is the Commanders-Eagles game as the winner takes the 1st place in the NFC East. 

Week 11 Preview

The Eleventh week of the National Football League's regular season will start in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and finish in Arlington, Texas. Week 11 will feature a 14-game slate where 28 teams will play. Teams on a bye are the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It features six interconference games, four division games, four AFC games and no NFC games. There will be a Thursday night game, eight early games, three late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. The Sunday afternoon block will have CBS handling the doubleheader while FOX will have the single, regional game. Let's get to the picks! 

Week 11 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern. TW is me.

Washington (7-3) @ Philadelphia (7-2) (Amazon; 8:15 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Commanders lost to the Steelers and the Eagles beat the Cowboys last week. The Commanders have really been playing good competitive football lately. They barely won against the Giants and they nearly held off the Steelers last week. The running game has been a good part of their offense and they had a good portion of plays on the air. I'm not sure how well they can handle against the Eagles on a short week. It certainly would be a big win if they can pull off a win against rival Philadelphia. 

I honestly don't remember the last big Philadelphia-Washington matchup where both teams were at a similar record and had the biggest implications for the rest of the season. The Eagles should try to exploit a weakness in the Commanders defense in the run. Saquon Barkley had a limited role but still had a good amount of yardage in the win against Dallas. Make sense to keep him active but not overworked. The Eagles should find some holes in the Commanders defense and rack up some yards. I'm not sure on the pass as they do have a top-5 pass defense. I'll take the Eagles.

All-time series: Commanders lead 89-84-5

Cleveland (2-7) @ New Orleans (3-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Browns

The Browns had a bye and the Saints beat the Falcons last week. Last time we saw the Browns was a loss to the Chargers. It wasn't a close game as they lost to a 27-10 score. In just a few games, Jameis Winston has equated the amount of touchdowns and interceptions to their regular and overpaid quarterback DeShaun Watson. They should be able to get back to playing better as their stars get back to the fold after spending time in the injury list. The Browns aren't a huge pick to win this game but I'm not sure if I trust the Saints. 

The Saints were a sinking ship for quite a while. They had a 2-0 record and then fell to 2-7 before you know it. New Orleans had enough of Dennis Allen and got Darren Rizzi a win last week against the Falcons. They had finally won a game. It feels the honeymoon phase is starting to fade out. Maybe the Saints can win this game but the Browns defense isn't too shabby. Certainly better than their offense to a degree. Might be a worthy Toilet Bowl game. I don't trust either team but sadly it would be silly for me to pick this game as a tie. I'll go with the Browns. 

All-time series: Browns lead 13-6

Baltimore (7-3) @ Pittsburgh (7-2) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Ravens

The Ravens beat the Bengals and the Steelers beat the Commanders last week. Baltimore kind of got exposed a bit in their pass defense. They let Ja'Marr Chase walk all over them for not one but two 50+ yard plays. Perhaps it was just exposure or they just knew that they would win against the Bengals regardless. Cincy's defense is just not that good to be honest. The whole Ravens-Steelers rivalry has been waning a little bit over the years. It seems so long ago that they had a good rivalry going with defense dominating the game. I think the Ravens are probably the better team. 

Pittsburgh got a big win against the Commanders. It might've been a season defining win as they had a deficit going into the 2nd half and they got a late touchdown to Mike Williams. The Steelers certainly found more offense in going to Russell Wilson rather than Justin Fields. Wilson has six touchdowns and one interception. I think this game will come down to if they can slow down Derrick Henry. I don't think it's physically possible to stop him. I think the reason why the Steelers had been getting the upper hand in the matchups is that they haven't had a big power back in the backfield. I'll go with the Ravens. 

All-time series: Steelers lead 35-25

Green Bay (6-3) @ Chicago (4-5) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Packers

The Packers had a bye and the Bears lost to the Patriots last week. The classic rivalry renews as we get a glimpse of the Love vs Williams battle for the first time. Last time we saw the Packers was a rainy, windy rough loss to the Lions in Lambeau. They have had some time to regroup with the bye but need to get back to playing fundamentals, not turn the ball over, and go for the throat kind of football. Josh Jacobs should try to get going in this game as the Bears defense is kind of at risk of that kind of game. As long as they play up to their potential, they should find a way to win this game. 

Chicago was having a rough go of it and the loss to the Patriots has to be one of their lowest feelings in the campaign. The team was at one point 4-2 with a bye after demolishing the Jacksonville Jaguars. Say what you will about how bad the Jaguars are, the game is a tough one to win. Then the loss to Washington came and it basically took the wind out of their sails. Get it... wind... windy city... yeah okay. Pass protection broke down quite a bit last week as the Bears allowed nine sacks on their young quarterback. You can be the highest scoring team but if you let nine sacks by you, you're not going to win a lot of games, let alone points. Hence the three points the Bears could only muster last week. I'll take the Pack. 

All-time series: Packers lead 107-95-6

Indianapolis (4-6) @ NY Jets (3-7) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Colts

The Colts lost to the Bills and the Jets lost to the Cardinals last week. Indy has been a bit of a sad story really. They had a promising quarterback in Anthony Richardson. He basically might become the big bust to come out of the 2023 draft. At least at this point he might be. Joe Flacco has been a better presence on the field but the stats haven't really said otherwise. He hasn't had quite the season that he had last year with the Browns. The one where he basically got off the couch and proceeded to throw touchdowns and guided the Browns to a playoff game. I wish the Colts would find some way to get their running game going as that might be the key to this game. 

The Jets have been arguably the saddest story in the league so far. They had Aaron Rodgers back from injury, he would guide this team to a 6-4 or 7-3 record at this point possibly. They just haven't been that way. Getting rid of Robert Saleh might've been the worst thing that could've happened to them. They haven't won consecutive games since Week 2 and 3. They haven't scored more than 20 points in a game since the loss to the Patriots. I just think that the problems with the team might be just on Aaron Rodgers or possibly the team itself. Aaron Rodgers says that the Jets aren't mathematically eliminated but in the hearts and minds of fans, I think they're done. I'll take the Colts. 

All-time series: Colts lead 44-32

Jacksonville (2-8) @ Detroit (8-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Lions

The Jaguars lost to the Vikings and the Lions beat the Texans last week. A battle of the kitties in this one. Jacksonville comes into this game with a rough season behind them and things aren't getting much better any time soon. Trevor Lawrence was out with an injury last week. Thus thrusted Mac Jones into the scene. For anyone's surprise, Jones didn't do a whole lot. He barely had 100 passing yards or so and he could only put up seven points in the game as the Vikings proceed to score four field goals. The running game has been the their strong suit but the quarterback and defense situation hasn't been improved. I think the Jaguars are a big underdog in this one. I don't see them winning. 

Detroit got a big win against a good Texans team. They overcame a 23-7 deficit and won it by a 26-23 final. Jared Goff had a rough game with five interceptions. Rough might be a bit of an understatement had they lost. It has to mean something that despite that many turnovers, the Lions got back and won against one of the better AFC teams. They are back at home in the dome where their fans are waiting them. It'll be loud inside Ford Field and I think it's going to be a tough one for the Jaguars to win. 

All-time series: Lions lead 5-3

LA Rams (4-5) @ New England (3-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Rams

The Rams lost to the Dolphins and the Patriots beat the Bears last week. Los Angeles has had a roller coaster of a season. They had a chance to win against Miami but they fell short because of a big deficit and having to come back late to it. The play of Matthew Stafford hasn't shown a whole lot either. He has nine touchdowns but also seven interceptions. The offense has had its struggles. I think a fair amount of it has to do with the injuries to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The sophomore slump has probably hit Nacua a bit. Maybe the Rams can find some way to win against the Patriots. 

The Patriots have been playing better as of late. They've won two of their last three games. They nearly won against the Titans a couple of weeks ago had they led a touchdown drive in the overtime period. The play of Drake Maye has been promising. The defense had its best performance of the season against the Bears with nine sacks against the Bears. I mean the Bears offense wasn't supposed to be this bad at this point of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson has been a good option at running back. I think the key to this game will be a more mature version of Drake Maye. He has been a quarterback that is slightly getting better by learning from mistakes. I think he'll play alright in this game but I'll take the Rams. 

All-time series: Patriots lead 9-6

Las Vegas (2-7) @ Miami (3-6) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Dolphins

The Raiders had a bye and the Dolphins beat the Rams last week. The last time we saw the Raiders was a beatdown by the Bengals by a 41-24 score in favor of the Bengals. They haven't won a game since beating Cleveland in Week 4. The big thing for the Raiders is that their quarterback situation. Gardner Minshew hasn't really panned out for the Black and Silver and Aidan O'Connell hasn't done a whole lot either. Desmond Ridder has a small sample size of stats but he needs to quickly get more out of himself to win this game. Maybe the Raiders defense can hold them off so that their offense can get some points. I have some doubts. 

The Dolphins are a team on the up at the moment. They will need to continue to get better and win the rest of the season I think if they want a playoff spot. As long as their quarterback Tua Tagovailoa wants to stay on the field, he needs to stay healthy. He seems to be the driving force to what they need to get out of the rest of the offense. Mike McDaniel expects him to lead it and so be it. De'Von Achane needs to really get going as well as he has had a bit of a quieter season than last year. I think the Dolphins offense will have somewhat of an advantage in this one. Defensively, I think they should try to go for an opportunistic aggressive policy. Attack the offense with a pass rush. I think the Raiders will collapse. 

All-time series: Raiders lead 21-20-1

Minnesota (7-2) @ Tennessee (2-7) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Vikings

The Vikings beat the Jaguars and the Titans lost to the Chargers last week. Minnesota had a pedestrian effort against the Jaguars. Sam Darnold had a bit of a rough one as he threw a fair amount of interceptions with no touchdowns. John Parker Romo hit four field goals in the win and it was enough to get the win. The defense of the Vikings did the rest of it as they allowed just under 150 total yards against the Mac Jones led Jaguars. I think the offense will get back to playing better this week against a Titans team. 

Tennessee has been on a rough path. It has to be a given in this season under first year head coach Bill Callahan. The offense has been not great. They have a good running back in Tony Pollard who can get yardage in a big way. Their best wide receiver is Calvin Ridley now that DeAndre Hopkins is now a Chief. Tennessee's best thing going for them is their #1 ranked pass defense. It might be a good thing that they're facing a great pass offense in the Vikings. They will need to be on Justin Jefferson like glue. Something has to give and not a lot of teams have been able to figure it out with the Vikings. I'll go with the Vikes. 

All-time series: Vikings lead 9-5

Atlanta (6-4) @ Denver (5-5) (FOX; 4:05 pm)

Pick: Broncos

The Falcons lost to the Saints and the Broncos lost to the Chiefs last week. Both teams suffered losses last week. The more shocking loss was the Saint somehow winning a game against the Falcons. The Falcons just got outmatched and kind of got outplayed a bit in the game. I know it was a 20-17 loss but the Falcons gave up the ball a bit too much and it was enough for a Chiefs win. I'm not sure how well the Falcons play the rest of the way but the Broncos are the next game for the Falcons. In hindsight I kind of like the Falcons in the game but they are a bit of a risk after last week. 

Denver had the most gut-wrenching loss of the two teams in this game. They had a chance to win a game by a field goal and somehow right on cue the football gods decide to shit on Denver and let the Chiefs block a somewhat routine field goal and survive to stay undefeated. They can giveth and taketh at some points in a season. The Broncos this season have been kind of an interesting watch. Bo Nix has been kind of a mixed bag at quarterback. Their running game has been kind of a non-existent thing to see but Nix has been somewhat of a mobile quarterback. The plus side for the Broncos in this game is their defense that has been a solid unit. They held the Chiefs to 16 points last week. I'm taking the Broncos. 

All-time series: Broncos lead 9-7

Seattle (4-5) @ San Francisco (5-4) (FOX; 4:05 pm)

Pick: 49ers

The Seahawks had a bye and the 49ers beat the Buccaneers last week. The last time we saw the Seahawks was a tough, overtime loss to the Rams. The Seahawks have been kind of a rough team to watch as of late. Their defense hasn't really been that great in spite of having a head coach in Mike MacDonald who is a defensive minded coach. The offense hasn't been playing up to expectations sadly as Geno Smith has thrown 11 touchdowns but also has thrown 10 interceptions as well. The running game hasn't been playing well as well. The Seahawks are just a weird team that feels like it is on the downward slope. Kind of forgot that they were also undefeated at one point this season as well. 

San Francisco has been kind of like Seattle but they have had a bit more success of late. In terms of injuries, the 49ers got hit by the bug as per usual. You have to remember that the 2020 49ers had a plethora of injuries after making the Super Bowl the year before. The Niners are starting to get better with their players coming back from injury. The whole Taybor Pepper vs Deebo Samuel drama was kind of weird. The long snapper was part of the issue with the missed three field goals against Tampa. If Kyle Shanahan says there's no issue, then there has to be no issue whatsoever. The offense has been playing alright and they did get a win against the Buccaneers that probably should've been more of a wider margin than really anything. I'll go on a whim and take the Niners. 

All-time series: Seahawks lead 30-23

Kansas City (9-0) @ Buffalo (8-2) (CBS; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Chiefs beat the Broncos and the Bills beat the Colts last week. It is the big one as Mahomes-Allen VIII happens yet again. The defending champions come into this game with a lackluster ugly win against the Broncos. It took a blocked game-winning field goal for the Chiefs to keep their undefeated season afloat. The offense was kind of lackluster but a win is a win. Despite the star power on offense, they would only put up 16 points. It feels more like another defensive team like last year. I think the offense will need to play better as they are facing against the Bills. Keep in mind, the Bills almost won last year's contest but the term "Wide Right" is their kryptonite. 

Buffalo comes into this game with an 8-2 record. They have a really good offense and a defense that is just as good. They didn't get a lot of offense in the passing game but did rely on their running game in the game. They should find that to be useful in this game as well as the later games when it gets colder out. The good news is that the Bills have had Kansas City's number in the regular season, granted not in the playoffs. They are 3-1 against the Chiefs when the two quarterbacks square off in a non-postseason contest. I think the passing game will need to step up a bit as if there is a strength for the Chiefs, it is their defensive line. The defense of the Bills will have its hands full with Patrick Mahomes. I'll take the Bills ending the undefeated season. 

All-time series: Bills lead 29-25-1

Cincinnati (4-6) @ LA Chargers (6-3) (NBC; 8:20 pm)

Pick: Chargers

The Bengals lost to the Ravens and the Chargers beat the Titans last week. Cincinnati has been a bit of an oddity. They can look good one week and then lose them in the roughest way possible. Their offense started off slow earlier in the season (they lost to the Patriots mind you) and then they got going eventually. The defense has been the problem for them. It feels like Joe Burrow could score a billion touchdowns, but the defense would give up a billion touchdowns as well. Their defense will need to put a stop to anything that the Chargers offense offers them. They will have to get their run defense going and force Justin Herbert to beat them. Yeah kind of a risky move. 

The Chargers have had a rebound of a season. I guess it helps when you have a head coach in Jim Harbaugh who knows all about rebound seasons. Stanford, San Francisco and Michigan were the great recipients of those rebounds. It would seem to me that the Chargers are well on their way to a playoff spot. They have to take care of business on Sunday night against the Bengals. Cincinnati is a team that is slipping away in the playoff picture but they are still a dangerous team to deal with. Playing spoiler has to be something to keep in mind for the Chargers and their fans. Ja'Marr Chase had 55 fantasy points last week with 264 receiving yards. He needs to be watched at all times. I think its a possible toss up but I'll take the Chargers. 

All-time series: Chargers lead 23-15

Houston (6-4) @ Dallas (3-6) (ABC; 8:15 pm)

Pick: Texans

The Texans lost to the Lions and the Cowboys lost to the Eagles last week. A battle for Texas to end Week 11. Houston comes into this game with a rough way to lose against Detroit. They had a 23-7 lead into the 3rd quarter and ended up losing by a 26-23 margin with Detroit scoring 19 unanswered points. That hurt their pride but I would say also taking away five interceptions from Jared Goff was also a tough one to swallow. They need to realize that they have to win games by playing all of the four quarters and keep the foot on the gas. They should have a shot to win against the reeling Cowboys. 

The Cowboys are falling off the face of a cliff right before our eyes. Despite the contract to Dak Prescott, he hasn't fufilled his end of the bargain with stats and sadly with a hamstring injury. He will be getting it repaired sometime this week, resulting in him being out for the rest of the season. Cooper Rush not playing well last week against Philly was a bit of a surprise. He had been in this role before and he did fairly alright. Last week, he barely got to 40 passing yards. He will need to play better and find his wide receivers. The running game needs to play better as well, heck everyone needs to do better. I'll take the Texans. 

All-time series: Cowboys lead 4-2

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Early

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Indianapolis @ NY Jets 

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

Minnesota @ Tennessee

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Jacksonville @ Detroit 

Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Las Vegas @ Miami 

Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, Jay Feely

CBS Late

Kansas City @ Buffalo (aired nationally)

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

FOX Single

Green Bay @ Chicago

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

LA Rams @ New England

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

Cleveland @ New Orleans

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

Seattle @ San Francisco (Late)

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

Atlanta @ Denver (Late)

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston 

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024 Week 11 Maps

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11

Week 6: 13-1

Week 7: 13-2

Week 8: 9-7

Week 9: 12-3

Week 10: 10-4

Total: 104-48

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 11 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom