NFL 2024 Week 14 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The week that was Week 13 brought us time for family, friends, food and football on Thanksgiving and then the leftovers on Friday and Sunday. As we get into the month of December, it is the last full month of football of regular season play and teams make an attempt to make a run to the playoffs. In this post I will do a playoff picture for Week 14, a preview of the week's action, my picks for the games and the Early and Late TV Broadcast pairings that FOX and CBS will put on the Sunday afternoon games.

NFL Playoff Picture: Week 14

Week 14 brings forth with at least five more weeks of regular season play, including this week. Some teams have punched their tickets for more football while some have been eliminated from playing past Week 18. Let's take a look at the AFC.

Seeding

1st seed: Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) (clinched playoff berth)

2nd seed: Buffalo Bills (10-2) (clinched AFC East)

3rd seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)

4th seed: Houston Texans (8-5)

5th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)

6th seed: Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

7th seed: Denver Broncos (8-5)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Denver @ Buffalo

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

LA Chargers @ Houston

In the Hunt

Indianapolis (6-7), Miami (5-7), Cincinnati (4-8), Cleveland (3-9), NY Jets (3-9), Tennessee (3-9)

Better Luck Next Year

New England (3-10), Jacksonville (2-10), Las Vegas (2-10)

The AFC is a bit more sound in terms of positioning. The Ravens are ahead of the Broncos based on head-to-head record. Cleveland and Tennessee are ahead of New York based on conference record. The Browns and Titans have a 3-4 record in the AFC while New York has a 3-5 record. Cleveland is ahead of Tennessee based on strength of victory. Let's look at the NFC. 

Seeding

1st seed: Detroit Lions (11-1)

2nd seed: Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)

3rd seed: Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

4th seed: Atlanta Falcons (6-6)

5th seed: Minnesota Vikings (10-2)

6th seed: Green Bay Packers (9-3)

7th seed: Washington Commanders (8-5)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups

Washington @ Philadelphia

Green Bay @ Seattle

Minnesota @ Atlanta

In the Hunt

Tampa Bay (6-6), Arizona (6-6), LA Rams (6-6), San Francisco (5-7), Dallas (5-7), New Orleans (4-8), Chicago (4-8), Carolina (3-9)

Better Luck Next Year

NY Giants (2-10)

The first three seeds won't change teams in the near future likely as their opposing division rivals have at least a worse head-to-head record. Tampa Bay is behind Atlanta based on head-to-head record. Barring a major collapse the five through seven seeds won't change at all likely. 

Week 14 Preview

The Fourteenth week of the National Football League's regular season will start at Detroit, Michigan and finish up in Arlington, Texas. Week 14 features a 13-game slate where 26 teams will play. Teams on a bye this week are the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Washington Commanders. There will be three interconference games, six division games, four NFC games this week. Week 14 features a Thursday night game, seven early games, three late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. Doubleheader this week goes to FOX and CBS will have the single, regional game. Let's get to the picks! 

Week 14 Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern.

Green Bay (9-3) @ Detroit (11-1) (Amazon; 8:15 pm)

Pick: Packers

The Packers beat the Dolphins and the Lions beat the Bears last week. Green Bay really showed themselves off to the country in beating a relatively good team in Miami. Granted in talent not on record for the Dolphins. The pickup of Josh Jacobs has been a nice thing for the Pack as they add another weapon on an offense that is very solid. Jordan Love has been a bit of an enigma for this season of hope for the Packers as he has 20 touchdowns but also 11 interceptions. The last time they played the Lions, they abused the Packers in the rain soaked Lambeau Field and kind of embarrassed them. They need to play smarter and beat them at their own game. What I mean by that is sustain drives and when it comes to 4th down situations, take advantage of them. Keep the Lions off the field. 

Detroit did get a win against Chicago last week. The offense would do a majority of its scoring in the 1st half and then just played hold off the opposition until the final whistle. It would take a sack and Matt Eberflus time management fail for the Lions to win last week. Detroit hasn't been looking that great these past few weeks and it feels evident in that they don't keep moving the ball down the field and let the opposition attempt to make a mistake but don't for some reason. It's not a formula for success. The Lions should be able to win this game but they cannot let themselves fall back to their old ways and shoot themselves in the foot. I'll take a risk and take the Packers. 

All-time series: Packers lead 106-77-7

Carolina (3-9) @ Philadelphia (10-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Panthers lost to the Buccaneers and the Eagles beat the Ravens last week. Carolina has had a trying season. No question about that. The offense really did well against the Buccaneers and the defense did its part. They just sadly lost by not making a few more plays to win at overtime. In this game, I think the Panthers will struggle. The defense will need to step up and stop the run of not just Saquon Barkley but also Jalen Hurts. The offense needs to do well as their opposition is also a top ranked defense. Essentially it is a "good luck, you'll need it" sort of game for Carolina. 

The Eagles look like a really great team. The offense is just great at the run with Saquon Barkley. The running back is having a great year after being a Giant for the first part of his career. He found a new home as he proceeds to get yard after yard and make defensive tackles look silly. The pass offense is just as good as they have a plethora of pass catchers that can get yards. The defense is good as well. They seemed to have figured themselves out after the brutal loss to the Buccaneers. Since the bye week, they have won eight straight games. Maybe the game can be a decent one for the Panthers to cause a fuss for the Eagles, but I think they will win. 

All-time series: Eagles lead 8-5

Atlanta (6-6) @ Minnesota (10-2) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Vikings

The Falcons lost to the Chargers and the Vikings beat the Cardinals last week. Kirk Cousins comes back to Minnesota. A bit surprising this game isn't a bigger game and not an early game. Suffice to say, the game might be more important if the Falcons didn't crap the bed. The Falcons last week really had a rough one with Kirk Cousins throwing four interceptions. In this game, Kirk needs to stop the bleeding and stop turning it over. It'll be a tall task for the Falcons defense to go after Sam Darnold as most teams haven't figured it out. I feel the Falcons will need to play their best ball in order to win and that doesn't seem like a good time for the Falcons.

Minnesota has been playing really well. It should be noted that the Vikings might struggle with JJ McCarthy and Sam Darnold under center. Then again the rest of the team really stepped up and made Darnold look like Randall Cunningham or something. The Vikings really play team offense as they have a group that can hurt you. Justin Jefferson has 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth consecutive season. The defense is the group that has been the most improved under the tutelage of Brian Flores. Flores is an underrated defensive coordinator. It seems a bit of a tough call to choose the Falcons as their team is very suspect. I'll go with the Vikings.

All-time series: Vikings lead 21-12

Cleveland (3-9) @ Pittsburgh (9-3) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Steelers

The Browns lost to the Broncos and the Steelers beat the Bengals last week. Cleveland has been a bit of a revitalized team with Jameis Winston. He has lifted this team offensively with big passing yards numbers and touchdowns but also has been a bit of a gunslinger with the interceptions as well. The matchup against the Steelers a few weeks ago was in a snowstorm but he still had a solid game. The running game got going as well. I just think that in terms of playing in Acrisure Stadium (I prefer Heinz Field btw) the Steelers will defend their home turf and make the Browns pay for every yard.

Pittsburgh has had a successful season with Russell Wilson at quarterback. It seems crazy that the Broncos are paying him to not be on their team. Pittsburgh got going once they dropped Justin Fields to the bench and Wilson to the forefront. Russell Wilson against Cleveland a few weeks ago had a solid game as he did throw a touchdown pass and almost threw for 300 yards. I don't know how much the weather will affect the game but I would assume it won't snow. I have to think that the Steelers won't let the Browns sweep them in a successful season. At least not in front of their fans. I think the Steelers will win it by a touchdown by Wilson to Pickens.

All-time series: Steelers lead 81-64-1

Jacksonville (2-10) @ Tennessee (3-9) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Jaguars

The Jaguars lost to the Texans and the Titans lost to the Commanders last week. Jacksonville suffered a rough one against Houston. They lost Trevor Lawrence to an injury yet again. Unfair as it is to lose Trevor Lawrence like that, the suspension of Azeez Al-Shaair was certainly justifiable. Mac Jones in his absence actually did well. A surprise to many that has been following him since 2022. Mac just needs to do better with his decision making as he does have a decent group to work with. Maybe he just needs a bit more reps. He will need to be better as the Titans are a pretty formidable defense.

Tennessee suffered a pretty disheartening defeat against Washington. The defense kind of got exposed a bit but the Commanders are a pretty good team. At least you have to give them that. The superb defensive rankings kind overshadow how poor the offense is. Will Levis has been playing better in recent weeks so maybe there might be a bit of a turning point. The defense will need to be on their toes as the Jaguars do have a decent running attack. The key for them is to go after Mac Jones early and often. For some odd reason I do like the Jaguars to play a bit of a spoiler against Tennessee. I don't have much to lose as both teams aren't really going anywhere.

All-time series: Titans lead 35-24

Las Vegas (2-10) @ Tampa Bay (6-6) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Buccaneers

The Raiders lost to the Chiefs and the Buccaneers beat the Panthers last week. Las Vegas in the midst of a terrible season. The quarterback situation hasn't been the most ideal for sure. The only quarterback that has done halfway decent is Aidan O'Connell but he has been a bit of an injury bug. Gardner Minshew has been lost to the Raiders this season with a shoulder injury. O'Connell seems like the person that should take the starter spot. The Raiders run game has been the real culprit this season. That and the Raiders defense outside of Maxx Crosby is kind of not great. I just think the Raiders are just playing out to finish the season. I don't honestly see them beating the Buccaneers.

Tampa has been an average team. The record of 6-6 pretty much tells the tale for sure. They almost had a 5-7 record against the Panthers had Chuba Hubbard not fumble the ball on their first drive in overtime. In other words, they survived a scare. The Raiders aren't a great team but they can still play the spoiler. Not necessarily a great thing for a team that is trying to get the NFC South division crown. They cannot play down to their competition for the 2nd straight week. Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback than that. I honestly think the Buccaneers should win this game but the Raiders playing spoiler can't be ruled out.

All-time series: Raiders lead 7-4

New Orleans (4-8) @ NY Giants (2-10) (FOX; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Giants

The Saints lost to the Rams and the Giants lost to the Cowboys last week. New Orleans suffered a bit of a rough loss against the Rams. The offense did okay in the first part of the game but the offense went lax the rest of the way. Enough for the Rams to proceed to score three touchdowns in the 4th quarter. The offense which had been so good in the early part of the season has drifted back to being inept and lifeless. The Derek Carr to Marques Valdez-Scantling connection has done its part and did well. The Saints will really need to play better against a sad Giants team.

The Giants last week against the Cowboys nearly won as they lost 27-20 on Thanksgiving. A bit of a sour sort of game as the game really felt like a Cowboys romping. Drew Lock started for the Giants and did well as a runner but not quite as good as a passer. New York has Tyrone Tracy Jr. as a running back which isn't a bad option and Malik Nabers has been a stud for a wide receiver for them in an offense that has lacked prowess. The defense will be the key for the matchup as the defense has been doing its part and will need to keep this game in reach for their offense. I'll go with another upset as the Giants win against the Saints.

All-time series: Giants lead 17-15

NY Jets (3-9) @ Miami (5-7) (CBS; 1:00 pm)

Pick: Dolphins

The Jets lost to the Seahawks and the Dolphins lost to the Packers last week. New York once again as won a 9th straight losing season as they haven't won more games than losing them since 2015. A streak that is the longest currently. The Jets have done everything to better their team. Whether it is firing a head coach, firing an offensive coordinator, getting a wide receiver for their quarterback to throw to. I think the thing is this: Aaron Rodgers is somewhat washed up. At this point, the least they can do is try to win games and play spoiler to the Dolphins that are trying to get into the playoffs. The matchup itself doesn't seem like a great one but the Jets do have somewhat of a better situation at quarterback I guess than Zach Wilson.

Miami suffered a setback last week against Green Bay. The defense couldn't do a whole lot against the Packers as they rampaged over the Dolphins. The offense kept it sort of close but the Dolphins were really outclassed in the game. It sort of proved that they aren't quite as good as they think they are. The game this week against the Jets should be a game where they should win. The defense might have some trouble as their running game is a fairly decent one. The passing game is eh not as great. Miami just needs to sustain drives and make their defense bend. If they can do that they should be able to win. Feed De'Von Achane the ball and they should be able to win.

All-time series: Dolphins lead 60-56-1

Seattle (7-5) @ Arizona (6-6) (CBS; 4:05 pm)

Pick: Seahawks

The Seahawks beat the Jets and the Cardinals lost to the Vikings last week. The last time these two teams met it was a defensive struggle but the Seahawks won it with a defensive showing that is arguably their best performance of the season. Remember, the defense was a pitiful sort when Mike MacDonald is a defensive minded head coach. In the rematch contest, I don't know how well these two teams will do. In a different environment might spell doom or happiness for the Seahawks. All I know is that the offense of Seattle isn't too shabby but Geno Smith has had an off year with just 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Arizona was having a solid season with a 6-4 record but two losses to these Seahawks and the Vikings has been a bit of a rough thing to see. They haven't won a game in nearly a month (winning against the Jets 31-6). Maybe having the Cardinals play at home might get them back to form a bit. James Conner has been a decent back for the Cardinals and Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a star slowly in the making. Only Trey McBride has more receptions and receiving yards than Harrison. Kyler Murray didn't play well against the Seahawks in Week 12 as he had an interception that went for a pick-six. The offense only scored six points in the loss but only gave up 16. I think the offense needs to get back to playing better and keep the foot on the gas as they did sort of let the Vikings come back and win it last week. I'll take the Seahawks.

All-time series: Seahawks lead 28-22-1

Buffalo (10-2) @ LA Rams (6-6) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: Bills

The Bills beat the 49ers and the Rams beat the Saints last week. The marquee game on FOX this week is Buffalo against the Rams of Los Angeles. Buffalo comes into this game with a lock on the AFC East for the fifth straight year. After many years of Patriots dominance, it seems that if you win that division, you'll likely hold onto it for a while. The Bills in this matchup won't be playing in the snow as it is in sunny southern California. This game feels like a bit of a risk as the Rams do have an offense that can keep Josh Allen on the sideline. I think the Bills run offense should find some good in the run defense of the Rams as they allow 144.2 yards/game. I think its a matchup that the Bills will win but maybe the Rams can keep it close.

The Rams come into this game with a big win against the Saints. They were shut out for the first time since 2016. Something that never happens in the Sean McVay era with the Rams. They wouldn't score a touchdown until the middle of the 3rd quarter. By the end of the game they would score two more and win 21-14 against the Saints. The offense needs to score more sooner than the 3rd quarter. Otherwise it'll be a long day for them. Beating the Bills is no small feat but it is possible to do. The Rams need to pressure Josh Allen all day and force him to beat you and to try to slow down the Bills running game. Buffalo is a running team and the Rams should try to match that firepower. I think Buffalo will win it by a late touchdown.

All-time series: Bills lead 9-5

Chicago (4-8) @ San Francisco (5-7) (FOX; 4:25 pm)

Pick: 49ers

The Bears lost to the Lions and the 49ers lost to the Bills last week. Chicago has been a disappointment, that's for sure this season. The offense, that was touted as being one of the better ones in the league, has suffered. Enough so for head coach Matt Eberflus to be fired the day after one of the worst moments of clock management this season. In his stead is Thomas Brown, the man who took over as offensive coordinator a month ago, is now also the interim head coach. The vibe from him is that he is in general a popular fellow among the individuals of the organization. Time for the Bears to go up against the defending conference champions. Chicago has the pieces to do things on offense and a defense that can do well enough to keep them in games, they just don't have the right coaching I think to utilize them. I am not saying that Thomas Brown is the next answer to help the Bears problems, but that he is their best shot to get back on track.

San Francisco has been suffering a rough defense of a conference title this season. The hangover is real it seems. Christian McCaffrey is lost for the season again after participating in a few games this season. The loss is kind of a big one but Jordan Mason sort of became a solid running back for the 49ers. The injuries have been a recurring theme for the 49ers not just this season but in past seasons. They have so many injuries one year and then when they don't they make it to a Super Bowl and face off against Patrick Mahomes. You know the rest of the story. San Francisco in this contest should be able to find some advantages in the running and passing game. At this point the 49ers have no choice but to try and make a run this season and hope for the best. I don't know if the window for a Super Bowl win is closing but it is starting to inch closer and closer to reality. I don't know how well the Bears can respond to a new head coach but I think the 49ers will take this one.

All-time series: 49ers lead 35-33-1

LA Chargers (8-4) @ Kansas City (11-1) (NBC; 8:20 pm)

Pick: Chiefs

The Chargers beat the Falcons and the Chiefs beat the Raiders last week. Los Angeles has been having a solid season with Jim Harbaugh captaining the ship. Turnarounds have been this guy's moniker as he is leading the Chargers on a cusp of a playoff berth. Standing in their way of that is a Chiefs team that has been playing with luck for most of the season. The last time these teams played was a close 17-10 loss. The Chargers wouldn't get a lot of offense going as the Chiefs defense would put forth a limiting effort on them. Justin Herbert had 179 passing yards. It will have to be a better effort for the Chargers in this game. They cannot possibly let this game any closer. Luck will find the Chiefs likely.

The Chiefs this season are kind of a weird team. They have a 11-1 record but with records, it can be a bit deceiving. Some of their lucky moments was a blocked field goal against Denver, a field goal against Carolina in a win, and a botched snap against Las Vegas last week. As well as a touchdown that was ruled out of bounds as the Ravens had a player not have both feet in the endzone. The Chiefs are likely going to again have some luck on their side as they play against a division rival again. Until the Chargers prove to me otherwise, I think the Chargers will still play 2nd fiddle to the Chiefs in the division. I'll take the Chiefs.

All-time series: Chiefs lead 70-58-1

Cincinnati (4-8) @ Dallas (5-7) (ABC; 8:15 pm)

Pick: Bengals

The Bengals lost to the Steelers and the Cowboys beat the Giants last week. Cincinnati has been a team of great and terrible all in the same team. Great offense and a terrible defense. Not a recipe for success. I did see a good stat that Joe Burrow has 30 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is the only quarterback in NFL history whose team has a losing record, all other quarterbacks with those similar numbers have a winning record. That's how bad their defense is. Sadly they face against a Dallas team that is starting to turn a corner a little bit with Cooper Rush at quarterback. The Bengals offense might be facing off against a decent defense and might face some trouble.

The Cowboys have been turning a bit of a corner. After the rough loss to the Texans on Monday night, the Cowboys have won two straight games. The offense has been playing well and the defense has done its part in stopping teams and getting turnovers. The team win against New York was evident of that. Cooper Rush has been a decent story in the absence of Dak Prescott. In terms of the matchup of Cowboys offense vs Bengals defense, the Cowboys offense seems to be a bit of a mismatch it seems. The defense of Cincy's is really bad. Not great on the pass defense as much as their run defense. I don't really want to see the Cowboys any longer past Week 18. I hope that their season ends at this point and they miss the playoffs again. Can't lose to Green Bay in the playoffs if you're not in them. I'll go with Cincinnati.

All-time series: Cowboys lead 10-4

Early & Late Game TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings

CBS Single

NY Jets @ Miami

Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Las Vegas @ Tampa Bay

Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Jason McCourty

Seattle @ Arizona (Late)

Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

FOX Early

New Orleans @ NY Giants

Kevin Kugler, Daryl Johnston

Carolina @ Philadelphia

Adam Amin, Mark Sanchez

Atlanta @ Minnesota

Joe Davis, Greg Olson

FOX Late

Buffalo @ LA Rams

Kevin Burkardt, Tom Brady

Chicago @ San Francisco

Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

For more information on which game is being shown in your area check out: NFL 2024 Week 14 Maps

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6

Week 3: 10-6

Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11

Week 6: 13-1

Week 7: 13-2

Week 8: 9-7

Week 9: 12-3

Week 10: 10-4

Week 11: 11-3

Week 12: 7-6

Week 13: 14-2

Total: 136-59

2012: 164-90-2

2013: 162-92-1

2014: 172-83-1

2017: 164-92

2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1

2020: 167-88-1 

2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Monday night game for the Week 14 Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom