Wednesday, December 15, 2021

NFL 2021 Week 15 Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming up sooner than you'd believe. For this week, I'll be keeping an eye on the Patriots-Colts, Saints-Buccaneers, and Chiefs-Chargers games this week. In this post, I'll be doing an updated playoff picture, my week 15 preview, the picks for the games and the early and late game tv pairings. Let's get to work!

Playoff Picture:

AFC

Seeding:

1st seed: New England Patriots (9-4)
2nd seed: Tennessee Titans (9-4)
3rd seed: Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
4th seed: Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
5th seed: Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
6th seed: Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
7th seed: Buffalo Bills (7-6)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups:

Buffalo @ Tennessee
Indianapolis @ Kansas City
LA Chargers @ Baltimore

In the hunt:
Cleveland (7-6), Cincinnati (7-6), Denver (7-6), Pittsburgh (6-6-1), Las Vegas (6-7), Miami (6-7)

Better luck next year:
NY Jets (3-10), Houston (2-11), Jacksonville (2-11)

No AFC clinching scenarios this week but a lot of teams are ahead of Kansas City because largely of head to head records as Tennessee has a leg up on them. Will be interesting to see if one of the 7-6 teams in the hunt make a run. Will have to see for that to happen. 

NFC

1st seed: Green Bay Packers (10-3)
2nd seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
3rd seed: Arizona Cardinals (10-3)
4th seed: Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
5th seed: Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
6th seed: San Francisco 49ers (7-6)
7th seed: Washington Football Team (6-7)

Super Wild Card Weekend Matchups:

Washington @ Tampa Bay
San Francisco @ Arizona
LA Rams @ Dallas

In the hunt:
Minnesota (6-7), Philadelphia (6-7), Atlanta (6-7), New Orleans (6-7), Carolina (5-8), Seattle (5-8), NY Giants (4-9), Chicago (4-9)

Better luck next year:
Detroit (1-11-1)

No clinch scenarios this week but the Packers are ahead of the Buccaneers because of conference record and ahead of Arizona based on head to head. Arizona is behind Tampa because of strength of victory. Should be noted that Washington plays Philadelphia this weekend, if they lose the Eagles would have the advantage of head to head record. 

Week 15 Preview

The 14th week of the NFL's regular season will kick off in Inglewood, California and finish up in Chicago, Illinois. The week will have a 16-game slate that all 32 teams will play in. No teams are on a bye this week. The week features a Thursday night game, two Saturday games, seven early games, four late games, a Sunday night game and a Monday night game. FOX will have the doubleheader and CBS will have the single, regional game. Let's get to the picks!

Week 15 Picks

Note: TW is me and CV is Cardinal Viking, my former roommate. All game times are in US Eastern.

Kansas City (9-4) @ LA Chargers (8-5) (FOX/Amazon/NFL Network; 8:20 pm): TW: Chiefs; CV: Chiefs
Both teams picked up wins last week as the Chiefs beat the Raiders and the Chargers beat the Giants. The week starts with a fairly good matchup between two great quarterbacks in the AFC. Kansas City has really hit their stride lately and it is because of the revamped defense that had one point gave up tons of points to opponents. LA has been somewhat of an inconsistent team but have been playing better of late. Usually good defense beats good offense in most cases. If there has to be some consistency with the picks it has to be Kansas City right? I'll go with the safe bet with the Chiefs. 

Las Vegas (6-7) @ Cleveland (7-6) (NFL Network; 4:30 pm): TW: Browns; CV; Browns
The Raiders lost to the Chiefs and the Browns beat the Ravens last week. The first of two games on Saturday features a meh matchup between the faltering Raiders and the lackluster Browns. Both teams aren't really that great but they are similar on paper. I think what defines the Browns is their running game and solid defense. They lack consistency in the quarterback position and Baker Mayfield is that culprit. Las Vegas might be coming off a humbling game against the Chiefs and I don't see them getting off the woe train. 

New England (9-4) @ Indianapolis (7-6) (NFL Network; 8:20 pm): TW: Colts; CV: Patriots
Both teams were on a bye last week. New England has had a renaissance after a disappointing 2020 season. Mac Jones has been a catalyst of that resurgence as Bill Belichick has a passer that he can rely on. The Patriots seem to be the media favorite in this one. The big matchup I think is Jonathan Taylor and the Patriots defensive line. New England has had troubles with stopping the run and if the Colts gameplan is anchored at giving Taylor the ball at least 20 times, they have a good shot to win. I think I'll take the Colts in this one. 

Arizona (10-3) @ Detroit (1-11-1) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Cardinals; CV: Cardinals
Both teams last week lost as the Cardinals lost to the Rams and the Lions lost to the Broncos. Arizona had a road bump last week against the Rams. They were able to get to Kyler Murray and really mess with his running and extending plays abilities. Detroit doesn't look like the squad to win another game this season it would seem. I don't think the Cardinals will have a repeat performance of last week as long as they don't do anything stupid. I'll take the Cards. 

Carolina (5-8) @ Buffalo (7-6) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Bills; CV: Bills
Both teams lost last week as the Panthers lost to the Falcons and the Bills lost to the Buccaneers. Carolina is a mess and Buffalo is a mess but a better mess if that makes sense. The Panthers have a mess of quarterbacks that don't really seem to lead their team to a win. Buffalo likes to just use Josh Allen and no one else. The Bills had aspirations to be in the big game in February and with their play, I have my doubts. I still think the Bills are the better team in the matchup so I'll take them. 

Dallas (9-4) @ NY Giants (4-9) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Cowboys; CV: Cowboys
The Cowboys beat the Football Team and the Giants lost to the Chargers last week. Dallas got a win where they were close to losing. Mike McCarthy did get his guarantee fulfilled though. They have a good running game that uses many runners to run their offense. New York is just a team that is nearing its end as General Manager Dave Gettleman will be leaving the team after this season. What that spells is a possible shakeup in the organization. The Giants could play spoiler but honestly even Giants fans would rather not see that if they want a high draft pick. 

Houston (2-11) @ Jacksonville (2-11) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Texans; CV: Texans
Both teams lost last week as the Texans lost to the Seahawks and the Jaguars lost to the Titans. Another Toilet Bowl boys and girls! The Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville is a trainwreck and it isn't getting any better. I feel there's a lot of distractions down in Jacksonville that I feel the Texans could play better than them. Davis Mills played fairly well last week in spite of the blowout loss. I feel better picking the Texans which says a lot. 

NY Jets (3-10) @ Miami (6-7) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Dolphins; CV: Dolphins
The Jets lost to the Saints and the Dolphins had a bye last week. Miami is currently sporting a five-game winning streak coming into this contest. Could the bye week affect them? Yes and no. They realize that the momentum might've shifted back to normal but they realize that they were supposed to be a playoff contender. The Jets are just not a great squad but that is to be expected as they were supposed to be bad. I'll take the Dolphins. 

Tennessee (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-6-1) (CBS; 1:00 pm): TW: Steelers; CV: Titans
The Titans beat the Jaguars and the Steelers lost to the Vikings last week. Tennessee has been playing good football without Derrick Henry. At this point they're just trying to stay in 1st in the AFC South and hope for the best when Henry returns. The Steelers still are in the hunt for a playoff spot and less likely the division but once you're in it anything can happen. Pittsburgh has had its ups and downs this year. Their defense has been the carrier and the offense has had its struggles. If the Steelers can shut down the ground game of the Titans they have a good shot to win. I'll take a risk and take the Steelers. 

Washington (6-7) @ Philadelphia (6-7) (FOX; 1:00 pm): TW: Eagles; CV: Football Team
The Football Team lost to the Cowboys and the Eagles had a bye last week. The game is quite underrated should the Football Team win. They would have a leg up on the playoff hunt and for the Eagles if they win then they would replace Washington. Overall the two offenses stack up really well. I think both will go after their opposing defense. I like the Eagles a bit better but Taylor Heinicke is a nice story. 

Atlanta (6-7) @ San Francisco (7-6) (CBS; 4:05 pm): TW: 49ers; CV: 49ers
Both teams won last week as the Falcons beat the Panthers and the 49ers beat the Bengals. Old school NFC matchup on CBS (back when they had the NFC package). Both teams have been playing better of late with their defenses leading the way. So both teams are pretty similar on paper. I feel the 49ers are the better team on paper and they are looking to stay in the playoffs as a wild card. I'll take the 49ers. 

Cincinnati (7-6) @ Denver (7-6) (CBS; 4:05 pm): TW: Bengals; CV: Bengals
The Bengals lost to the 49ers and the Broncos beat the Lions last week. The Bengals looked like a dead team walking for most of their game last week. They would eventually almost win that game barring a Brandon Aiyuk touchdown. Denver has been an inconsistent team that has a good defense but have question marks over their offense. Their running game can be their greatest strength or their biggest weakness. I'll take the Bengals. 

Green Bay (10-3) @ Baltimore (8-5) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Packers; CV: Ravens
The Packers beat the Bears and the Ravens lost to the Browns last week. Baltimore is in deep trouble without Lamar Jackson. They had almost a comeback win against Cleveland with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. They face a stiff test with the Packers in town. Green Bay currently holds the #1 seed in the NFC but this game could feel like a trap game for them. I like the Ravens running game a fair bit in this game and their defense can keep them in games. I think the key matchup is the Ravens defensive front and the Packers runningbacks. 

Seattle (5-8) @ LA Rams (9-4) (FOX; 4:25 pm): TW: Rams; CV: Rams
Both teams won last week as the Seahawks beat the Texans and the Rams beat the Cardinals. Seattle is in the midst of a losing year which doesn't happen very often. The 2011 season would be the last time that happened to the Seahawks. The Rams aren't in the midst of a losing season however as they are putting all their chips in and hoping to stay at home for the big game come February. They currently are running on a high as they beat one of the best teams in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. In division games, anything can happen but Sean McVay will keep his club focused on the task at hand. 

New Orleans (6-7) @ Tampa Bay (10-3) (NBC; 8:20 pm): TW: Buccaneers; CV: Saints
The Saints beat the Jets and the Buccaneers beat the Bills last week. Brady has had a stellar time in Tampa. The New Orleans Saints in the regular season have been a thorn at his side. On Sunday night that could change as the Saints and Buccaneers meet. The Saints defense has given Brady fits and I think it has to do a lot of their blitz and zone coverages. The Saints however don't have Tom Brady at their quarterback #1. New Orleans might be a possible upset in the making but I think Tom Brady will finally get that elusive win against the Saints. 

Minnesota (6-7) @ Chicago (4-9) (ESPN; 8:15 pm): TW: Vikings; CV: Vikings
The Vikings beat the Steelers and the Bears lost to the Packers last week. The week finishes up with a division matchup in the NFC North. The Vikings have been a meme when it comes to close games, including the near blown lead against Pittsburgh. Chicago is just not great but they do possess a offense that can give the Vikings some fits. David Montgomery is back and they also have a valuable backup in Khalil Herbert. Despite all that and more, I still like the Vikings in the matchup. I'll take them. 

Early & Late Game TV Pairings

Note: Games in bold are being shown in my area, check local listings, courtesy of 506sports.com

CBS Single

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

NY Jets @ Miami
Greg Gumbel, Adam Archuletea

Houston @ Jacksonville
Andrew Catalon, James Lofton

Cincinnati @ Denver (LATE)
Ian Eagle, Charles Davis

Atlanta @ San Francisco (LATE)
Kevin Harlan, Trent Green

FOX Early

Dallas @ NY Giants
Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth

Washington @ Philadelphia
Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez

Carolina @ Buffalo
Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma

Arizona @ Detroit
Gus Johnson, Aqib Talib

FOX Late

Green Bay @ Baltimore
Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Seattle @ LA Rams
Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston

For more information on which game is being shown in your area, check out: NFL 2021: Week 15 maps

2021 Pick'em Records:

My record:

Week 1: 7-9
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 12-4
Week 6: 11-3
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 7-8
Week 9: 7-7
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 8-7
Week 12: 8-7
Week 13: 10-4
Week 14: 10-4

Total: 124-83-1

Cardinal Viking's record:

Week 1: 6-10
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 13-3
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 10-6
Week 6: 12-2
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 7-8
Week 9: 8-6
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 10-5
Week 12: 9-6
Week 13: 7-7
Week 14: 9-5

Total: 128-79-1

Previous Picking Records:

Cardinal Viking:

2017: 167-89
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 151-104-1
2020: 163-92-1

My record: 
2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1 

I'll see you guys after the Monday night game for the Week 15 recap post! Enjoy the games
-Tom

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