NFL 2024 Divisional Picks

 Hello readers! Another week of National Football League action is coming upon us yet again. The Wild Card round is over and the 14 teams that started the playoffs are now down to 8. After this round the NFL will have its version of the Final Four. The Divisional round is probably my favorite as you have the contenders vs the contenders with two teams having the rest the week before. It certainly has to be a bit better when you had four teams with the Wild Card bye. In this post, I will do a preview and my picks for the four games this weekend and the TV broadcast pairings the four networks will put out. Let's get to work!

Divisional Preview

The National Football League's Divisional playoff weekend will start in Kansas City, Missouri and wrap up in Orchard Park, New York. The week will feature four games where eight teams will play. There will be a Saturday afternoon game, a Saturday night game, a Sunday afternoon game and a Sunday night game. Let's get to the picks!

Divisional Picks

Note: All game times are in US Eastern.

Houston @ Kansas City (ABC; 3:30 pm)

Pick: Chiefs

The Texans beat the Chargers and the Chiefs had the bye last week. The Divisional weekend begins with a matchup that the average fan might enjoy. The underdog against the two-time defending champions. Houston did well with their defense getting turnovers against the Chargers. Once they got the turnovers the offense would do the rest. The Chargers offense, normally very good at the running game, was held to 50 rushing yards. Certainly something that the Chiefs cannot underestimate. The matchup will depend on how well they can do against the Chiefs offense. The offense of Houston's will need to do well in the running game as if the Chiefs can shut down the run game and make it into a one-dimensional offense, it is going to be a rough going. Stroud did enough in the Chargers win but he will need to do well in this one. If they pressure him and force the ball, it could spell trouble. Suffice to say, the Texans have somewhat of a shot to get a win as they do right by throwing the deep ball and having a capable running back that can run for 20+ carries a game. It certainly has to give them an advantage. Houston's defense will be the thing to keep an eye on and how well they can do against the Chiefs offense. 

Kansas City hasn't played its starters since Christmas Day. By the time this game happens that will be about 23 days ago. The quest for a three-peat starts here as they try to do something that the Packers, Dolphins, Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys, Broncos and Patriots could never do. I question if the rust will happen to the Chiefs but I have to assume that Andy Reid will have his troops ready for the road ahead. Still, in-game situations aren't a substitute for practice football situations. I think there might be some struggle for the Chiefs offense. They usually always find a way to win and not put up 30+ points in a game often. Kansas City's defense will be the high point of the team in the last few years as the focus has moved from the high-powered offense to their defense. The defense will be at somewhat of an advantage as have a solid run defense with 8th ranked run defense with 101.8 yards/game. The pass defense is ranked 16th so somewhat down the middle in the league. Kansas City did beat Houston in Week 15 and they did it with a solid formula of running the football and passing. Obviously, the stakes are much more higher for either team. The team with the most pressure is the Chiefs. I think the thing to keep an eye on in this one is how well the Chiefs defense will do. I'll take the Chiefs but I'm kind of iffy on how well they can do against the Texans. 

All-time series: Chiefs lead 10-5; 3rd postseason meeting (Chiefs lead 2-0)

Washington @ Detroit (FOX; 7:00 pm)

Pick: Lions

The Commanders beat the Buccaneers and the Lions had the bye last week. Washington has been enjoying a sort of renaissance of a season. The DC-Maryland-Virginia area has embrace their football team. The excitement has seen this team possibly bring back the glory days when Joe Gibbs ran the football team in the 1980's and 1990's. We shall see if they can sustain this success for years to come. They certainly have the foundation. Washington keeps chugging along and will take their team to Detroit against the #1 seeded Lions. The team will have its hands full with the Lions. Last week, the Commanders did some things well but also did things not so well. I had hoped that the Commanders would run the ball a bit. You know the thing that got them to this point. The Lions will use their running game to their advantage in providing that balance that complements their passing game. The Commanders will need to play the Lions game. Jayden Williams will need to protect the football as well. You can't expect to win a game with a lot of turnovers. On defense, the Commanders will have somewhat of a decent shot in causing some harm to the Lions offense. They do have a pass defense that is top-5 with 205.4 yards/game allowed. I could see the Commanders win this game but the playoff experience of the Lions might be the dealbreaker. 

Detroit is having their greatest season in their long history. They haven't had this much success in a long time but for the fans it has to be quite the joy. Detroit earned that bye don't get me wrong. I think the Lions having played in Week 18 might have a good advantage compared to the Chiefs as they are battle ready. If they aren't then head coach Dan Campbell will get them ready. Washington will visit their humble abode on Saturday night and hope to upset the Lions. The matchup is interesting as the Commanders have a good running offense while the Lions have a great run defense. For pass offense, the Lions have a great passing team while the Commanders are a great pass defense team. Something has to give for sure. I think the Lions offense will need to jump out early and get the crowd going. Their crowd is loud and they will make their voices known. If there is something that the Lions don't do great on is having a pass rush. Not having Aidan Hutchinson on the defensive line has limited their effectiveness as a unit. Hutchinson is possibly available by the time the Super Bowl happens but that has to mean that the Lions will get there. The offense doesn't have a lot of sexy names on the wide receiver group outside of Amon Ra St. Brown but they do have solid contributors with Jameson Williams. I think the Commanders will have the possibilities to do well in the coming years but I think this should be in favor for the Lions and I will take them. 

All-time series: Commanders lead 31-16; 4th postseason meeting (Commanders lead 3-0)

LA Rams @ Philadelphia (NBC; 3:00 pm)

Pick: Eagles

The Rams beat the Vikings and the Eagles beat the Packers last week. Hopefully the pain that the LA wildfires have brought on the Los Angeles people were remedied by watching the Rams play football, let alone win a game. The Rams certainly showed a bit of distraction and emotion over the course of their game against the Vikings. They played relatively well on offense and the defense played out of its mind. The offense got touchdowns and a relatively good day on the passing game. The Rams running game hasn't been quite its strong suit but they are 24th in rushing offense. On defense they got a good game from their pass rush, sacking Sam Darnold nine times. A well as causing an interception in the game. Their run defense hasn't been quite their forte as they have given up chunks of yards this season from the ground game. The game against the Eagles might mean their end if they can't stop Saquon Barkley or at least slow him down. It will also be troubling on them if they can't stop Jalen Hurts as well as he is a dual threat. 

The Eagles really proved that they are still quite a good team. Jalen Hurts hadn't played since the Commanders game prior to last week. His numbers last week somewhat proved that he wasn't rusty. He hit 13 of 21 passes of 131 yards with six rushes for 36 yards. Well maybe he was a bit rusty but he did have two touchdowns from the air. Someone who wasn't rusty was Saquon Barkley who had 119 rushing yards last week. Barkley, who didn't play in Week 18, will likely be used a lot in this game. The Rams will likely expect him to be that. For the Eagles to win, they will likely need a good showing from their passing game. I hope to see Jalen Hurts throw for at least 200 yards passing with two touchdown passes. Once the offense finds a balance I think the defense should really go after Matthew Stafford with various blitz packages. There is certainly concern about the health of Tyler Higbee and whether or not he is able to go. Ultimately, the defense should just blitz but not send the whole farm after Matthew Stafford. The secondary will have its work cut out for them. I think the Eagles will take this game. 

All-time series: Eagles lead 24-20-1; 4th postseason meeting (Rams lead 2-1)

Baltimore @ Buffalo (CBS; 6:30 pm)

Pick: Ravens

The Ravens beat the Steelers and the Bills beat the Broncos last week. Divisional weekend wraps up with a great matchup in the AFC. Baltimore comes into this game with a huge victory over the rival Steelers. A 28-14 victory that had both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry scoring passing and rushing touchdowns respectively. If you want to talk about the Ravens offense you have to start with those two but primarily Lamar Jackson. Jackson, one of the favorites for MVP, has had a great season yet again. Derrick Henry, who has had a season in his first year in Ravens gear, has been the x-factor for the Ravens. This matchup against Buffalo will be a challenging one. I think these kind of games depend on who can control the line of scrimmage. Baltimore has allowed only 24 sacks this season to sneak past their offensive line. Only the Packers and Bills have allowed less this season. In the aspect of pass protection, it seems the Bills would have the better numbers. In the matchup on September 29th, no team had any sacks on their quarterbacks but the Ravens did well in defending on 3rd down. The defense will need to also keep and contain Josh Allen in the pocket. He can hurt you with his arm and his legs. That is how I think this game will need to go for the Ravens. 

The Bills come into this game with a blowout win against the Broncos. It was sort of a game that people might've questioned how well the Bills would do against the Broncos offense and the Broncos defense. Buffalo started off slow on offense but would put the hurt on the Broncos defense and really shut down the Broncos offense. Once the Broncos scored the seven points, they would not be able to score anything more. The Bills pass protection is probably the best in the NFL with just allowing 14 sacks on Josh Allen. Their defense has sacked the quarterback 39 times this season. They are also good at forced fumbles. Should they cause a fumble on Derrick Henry or Lamar Jackson, that might break the game wide open for the Bills. The only thing with the Bills defense is that they are a sort of average, bend but don't break defense. The offense of Buffalo's is a pretty solid one. Josh Allen is having a great season. A sort of MVP caliber season that clamors to Lamar Jackson's. Josh Allen has never won an MVP in his career. Winning this game would help boast that claim even though the MVP should be more of a regular season award. Sadly, the MVP award will go to whoever wins this game probably. Buffalo has James Cook who is a perfect complement to Allen in the running game. Cook has had another 1,000 rushing yard season. Wide receivers for Buffalo have a good group with Curtis Samuel being the leading receiver last week with three catches for 68 yards. Buffalo's offensive supporting cast will need to step up and help their quarterback in this one. The projections of the winner have been mostly 50/50. I'll take the Ravens since they are still my pick to go to the Super Bowl. 

All-time series: Ravens lead 7-5; 2nd postseason meeting (Bills lead 1-0)

TV Broadcast Pairings

Note: Games are being shown nationally, meaning everyone can see it, assuming you have the channel.

Houston @ Kansas City

Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

Washington @ Detroit

Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady

LA Rams @ Philadelphia

Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth

Baltimore @ Buffalo

Jim Nantz, Tony Romo

Records

2024:
Week 1: 14-2
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 10-6
Week 4: 10-6
Week 5: 3-11
Week 6: 13-1
Week 7: 13-2
Week 8: 9-7
Week 9: 12-3
Week 10: 10-4
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 7-6
Week 13: 14-2
Week 14: 11-3
Week 15: 13-3
Week 16: 12-4
Week 17: 12-4

Week 18: 9-7
Total: 193-80

Super Wild Card Weekend: 4-2

2012: 164-90-2
2013: 162-92-1
2014: 172-83-1
2017: 164-92
2018: 156-98-2
2019: 161-94-1
2020: 167-88-1
2021: 173-98-1
2022: 166-103-2
2023: 161-111

See you all after the Sunday night game for the Divisional Recap! Enjoy the games!

-Tom